Chinese Economics Thread

[Equation]

CCP has its job cut out to create the necessary environment to foster service industry growth so it could absorb workers laid off from manufacturing and related industries. Also need to succeed in supply side reforms and transfer wealth from the state sector to consumers. Extremely hard work ahead for government and corporation leaders.

They are doing a for better job than the Taiwan regime or the US government that's for sure. I don't see neither one of them are doing a "One Belt One Road" initiative of any kind. I know you're excited, but Remain Calm, the CPC got this.

 

[dingyibvs]

The composition of China's economy is changing very fast, and the way we analyze it needs to change as well. Here are a couple of examples of "quantitative change leading to qualitative change".

1) The tertiary industry (services) now contribute >50% to China's GDP. In 2015 the number was 50.2%, with the world average at 68.5%.

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2) Trade as a % of GDP peaked in 2006 at a whopping 64.8%, but since 2011 India has been more reliant on trade than China. The number for China by 2014 stood at 45.1%, with India at 48.8%.

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These data suggest that the common assumption that China has a manufacturing and trade driven economy is now outdated. While China is still the global leader in both arenas, they're no longer pre-eminent sectors in the Chinese economy.

 

[taxiya]

I noticed as News Of The Hour at gazeta.ru now

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quoting May 12, 2017 12:37 a.m. ET Trump Administration Announces Deal With China to Boost Exports

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which is behind paywall so I used google, found:
White House announces trade deal with China to boost U.S. exports

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After months of bashing China for its trade practices, the Trump administration said it had agreed with Beijing on a broad range of measures aimed at improving the access of American beef producers, electronic-payments providers and natural-gas exporters, among others, to the world's second-largest economy.

Some items on a 10-point plan the White House released Thursday address longstanding irritants between the two countries, as both governments strive to show warming ties while seeking cooperation on a range of economic and diplomatic issues like North Korea's nuclear program. Others are general principles and may not ensure concrete policy changes beyond promises to try to expand commerce in certain sectors.

"U.S.-China relationships are now hitting a new high especially in trade," Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in unveiling the package at the White House.

The plan was reached as part of a new economic dialogue launched when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited President Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago Florida resort home in early April and was unveiled shortly before a high-profile global economic summit Xi is hosting Sunday in Beijing. Chinese officials have been eager for the U.S. to signal support for that meeting.

An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com (

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).

I am more interested in US exporting more Intel, Quacom and TI chips etc. without restrictions to China. Something really valuable to China. Or perhaps Westinghouse is another good export. I am half kidding here.

I know the need for China to have her own chip industry than relying on US, but if (only if) the two can reach some kind of co-dependence state, then that kind of trade serves both sides better.

Beef is needed but China can get from Argentina or Brazil. Same as natural gas. Electrical payment service, no thanks.

 

[Blackstone]

The composition of China's economy is changing very fast, and the way we analyze it needs to change as well. Here are a couple of examples of "quantitative change leading to qualitative change".

1) The tertiary industry (services) now contribute >50% to China's GDP. In 2015 the number was 50.2%, with the world average at 68.5%.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

2) Trade as a % of GDP peaked in 2006 at a whopping 64.8%, but since 2011 India has been more reliant on trade than China. The number for China by 2014 stood at 45.1%, with India at 48.8%.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

These data suggest that the common assumption that China has a manufacturing and trade driven economy is now outdated. While China is still the global leader in both arenas, they're no longer pre-eminent sectors in the Chinese economy.

The push now is what Xi Jinping described as "supply side reforms," and the key to that is transfering wealth from the state sector to households. Vested interests have been fighting hard to stall reforms, so it's anyone's guess if Xi will be successful. My guess is his "power grab" is needed to push through reforms and build the "China Dream" he outlined. What he plans to do with amassed power after he defeats the vested interests is not clear.

 

[dingyibvs]

The push now is what Xi Jinping described as "supply side reforms," and the key to that is transfering wealth from the state sector to households. Vested interests have been fighting hard to stall reforms, so it's anyone's guess if Xi will be successful. My guess is his "power grab" is needed to push through reforms and build the "China Dream" he outlined. What he plans to do with amassed power after he defeats the vested interests is not clear.

It'll be a long process, he might not get it done before he retires. With that said, I expect him to pass his position to politically weak technocrat like Hu Chunhua and wield power from behind the scenes much like what Jiang did with the other Hu in order to finish what he started.

 

[Equation]

I am more interested in US exporting more Intel, Quacom and TI chips etc. without restrictions to China. Something really valuable to China. Or perhaps Westinghouse is another good export. I am half kidding here.

I know the need for China to have her own chip industry than relying on US, but if (only if) the two can reach some kind of co-dependence state, then that kind of trade serves both sides better.

Beef is needed but China can get from Argentina or Brazil. Same as natural gas. Electrical payment service, no thanks.

It will be similar to the wine industry in America and every where else. They all depend on China's middle class income for growth. Any stoppage of that either through tariff, taxing or banning for whatever geopolitical reason will be devastating to the local economy.

 

[KIENCHIN]

I am more interested in US exporting more Intel, Quacom and TI chips etc. without restrictions to China. Something really valuable to China. Or perhaps Westinghouse is another good export. I am half kidding here.

I know the need for China to have her own chip industry than relying on US, but if (only if) the two can reach some kind of co-dependence state, then that kind of trade serves both sides better.

Beef is needed but China can get from Argentina or Brazil. Same as natural gas. Electrical payment service, no thanks.

Don't forget Australian beef, our beef is of much higher quality and we are the only country outside of Japan, whose Wangyu beef is certified by the Japanese

 

[B.I.B.]

It'll be a long process, he might not get it done before he retires. With that said, I expect him to pass his position to politically weak technocrat like Hu Chunhua and wield power from behind the scenes much like what Jiang did with the other Hu in order to finish what he started.

OT
I wonder if he has the power base to change the length of Presidency to 5yrs or 3 four year terms. At 63/4 years old, he's good for another ten yrs?

 

[antiterror13]

Don't forget Australian beef, our beef is of much higher quality and we are the only country outside of Japan, whose Wangyu beef is certified by the Japanese

NZ beef is the best in the world .. free range and fully grass fed. Premium beef

 

[SamuraiBlue]

Don't forget Australian beef, our beef is of much higher quality and we are the only country outside of Japan, whose Wangyu beef is certified by the Japanese

No, I don't know where you got that information but, Japanese wagyu producers have only certified beef produced in Japan as Wagyu.