Chinese Economics Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

Excellent video from NHK about migrant worker. I believe this kind of program first air in Japanese will promote understanding of modern China wart and all and prevent stereo type and prejudice
It is commended of NHK to air this kind of program Kudo. It highlight the common culture root of humanistic, believe in progress of human being, hard work, trust in the other . A positive view of life.
It also show the dynamism of Chinese people and culture. they haven't uploaded in youtube yet so be patient sometime it is choppy

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[Blackstone]

Excellent video from NHK about migrant worker. I believe this kind of program first air in Japanese will promote understanding of modern China wart and all and prevent stereo type and prejudice
It is commended of NHK to air this kind of program Kudo. It highlight the common culture root of humanistic, believe in progress of human being, hard work, trust in the other . A positive view of life.
It also show the dynamism of Chinese people and culture. they haven't uploaded in youtube yet so be patient sometime it is choppy

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I endorse the video, because I saw first hand recruiting signs offering bonuses for basic factory jobs ranging from 3500 to 5000 RMB a month while I visited Shenzhen this past February. The factory manager I spoke with said labor is harder to come by and wages are forced up by market forces.

 

[Blackstone]

if you would travel more often, I am sure you would have a better views of the world and more understanding. What you have and know not always the best one, especially if you only believe biased western medias. Trust me, I know both ways and see positive and negative sides on both

Your post has some factual inaccuracies. I visit our partners and contract manufacturers in the PRC regularly (not unusual in the Silicon Valley), and have done so for over a dozen years. My expired Passport was almost completely full with entry and exit stamps for China, HK, Taiwan, Philippines, and Thailand. My new Passport has a two-year PRC visa (now expired) and a new ten-year visa.

As for your suggestion I only or even mostly believe the "biased western media," you obviously missed my regular rants of the western media. I call them the "lame stream media," and I'm extremely cynical and distrustful of them. What I do say and believe is they're mostly not government controlled, like the major media in the People's Republic of China, and so are more trustworthy. The reason isn't because I think the so-called journalists in the western lame stream media are more trustworthy (they are most definitely NOT), but because there is one less layer between the media the the people, namely The Government. So, if we go with the assumption reporters are equally honest or dishonest everywhere, and governments are equally corrupt and overbearing everywhere, then it stands to reason places with fewer layers from the Press to the people are less corrupt and thus more trustworthy. It is noted "trustworthy" is a fairly low bar with most governments and media organizations.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Your post has some factual inaccuracies. I visit our partners and contract manufacturers in the PRC regularly (not unusual in the Silicon Valley), and have done so for over a dozen years. My expired Passport was almost completely full with entry and exit stamps for China, HK, Taiwan, Philippines, and Thailand. My new Passport has a two-year PRC visa (now expired) and a new ten-year visa.

As for your suggestion I only or even mostly believe the "biased western media," you obviously missed my regular rants of the western media. I call them the "lame stream media," and I'm extremely cynical and distrustful of them. What I do say and believe is they're mostly not government controlled, like the major media in the People's Republic of China, and so are more trustworthy. The reason isn't because I think the so-called journalists in the western lame stream media are more trustworthy (they are most definitely NOT), but because there is one less layer between the media the the people, namely The Government. So, if we go with the assumption reporters are equally honest or dishonest everywhere, and governments are equally corrupt and overbearing everywhere, then it stands to reason places with fewer layers from the Press to the people are less corrupt and thus more trustworthy. It is noted "trustworthy" is a fairly low bar with most governments and media organizations.

The easiest way to explain why your assumption is wrong is to put it in a mathematical equation. You assume that x+y>z because you assume that 2 values are greater than 1 but the problem is that you don't know any of the 3 values (so taking either to be equal to the other is wrong) and you don't even know if each value is positive or negative. Even this model greatly underestimates the number of confounding factors in your argument that undermine your assumptions because in this equation, there are only positive and negative numbers but the truth and its "alternate versions" reside in 3D space. You're actually assuming that 2 vectors will take you further from a point (the truth) than 1 vector will despite knowing neither the magnitude nor direction of any of the vectors and not knowing the starting point of at least 2 out of the 3 vectors.

 

[antiterror13]

Your post has some factual inaccuracies. I visit our partners and contract manufacturers in the PRC regularly (not unusual in the Silicon Valley), and have done so for over a dozen years. My expired Passport was almost completely full with entry and exit stamps for China, HK, Taiwan, Philippines, and Thailand. My new Passport has a two-year PRC visa (now expired) and a new ten-year visa.

As for your suggestion I only or even mostly believe the "biased western media," you obviously missed my regular rants of the western media. I call them the "lame stream media," and I'm extremely cynical and distrustful of them. What I do say and believe is they're mostly not government controlled, like the major media in the People's Republic of China, and so are more trustworthy. The reason isn't because I think the so-called journalists in the western lame stream media are more trustworthy (they are most definitely NOT), but because there is one less layer between the media the the people, namely The Government. So, if we go with the assumption reporters are equally honest or dishonest everywhere, and governments are equally corrupt and overbearing everywhere, then it stands to reason places with fewer layers from the Press to the people are less corrupt and thus more trustworthy. It is noted "trustworthy" is a fairly low bar with most governments and media organizations.

There are many and many medias in China that are not related at all with the govt. But I agree with most of your post above ... my apologies, I didn't know that you have traveled a lot ... more than I do

 

[Blackstone]

There are many and many medias in China that are not related at all with the govt. But I agree with most of your post above ... my apologies, I didn't know that you have traveled a lot ... more than I do

No problem, antiterror13. You're one of the rational and reasonable posters, and even when we strongly disagree, it's rarely done in personal ways. Kudos for the classy reply, it's not common on anonymous internet forums.

 

[PiSigma]

Guys.. Why are we still on this equation - Blackstone fight after 6 pages?

Neither will of you will convince the other of unbiasedness, so just move on.

If you think someone is biased then make a mental note and take it with a grain of salt.

Also observe their posts over the years, Blackstone's posts are actually not that biased. He sticks to his principles and that's about it, and does changes his mind when more information is available.

Equation has been pretty much consistent on his positions. But remember most of us do want to see both sides of the coin and not just. A mouthpiece article without analysis. Its just as important to see what is not written than what is written in an article.

 

[Blackstone]

Interesting foreshadowing from Axios on more trade-related Presidential Executive Orders next week. It looks like Trump is pressing forward with bilateral trade re-negotiation, in spite of Japanese and ROK resistance.

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2. Another scoop: there's more on trade
The White House communications team wouldn't confirm this, but my sources tell me there could be as many as three additional executive orders this week (in addition to the four we report on above!) — all related to trade.

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  • The big one, which could come Thursday (but don't hold me to that date!) is a similar model to last week's presidential directive on steel; but this time it's applied to aluminum. Last week, Trump directed Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to investigate whether foreign steel imports compromise U.S. national security. This is a big deal — which largely got lost amid the North Korean crisis and the re-emergence of healthcare. If Ross finds that steel or aluminum imports threaten national security, then Trump can take extraordinary protectionist measures to rectify the situation.
  • My sources also tell me there could be a couple other trade orders released in the lead-up to Trump's Saturday rally in Harrisburg, Pa., to mark his first 100 days. The spilt-screen image Trump wants: As TV cameras show Washington's press corps dressed in black tie at the White House Correspondents Dinner, Trump is giving a full-throated economic nationalist pitch in the heartland.

Connecting the dots:

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, President Trump flip-flops all over the policy map, but the one thing he's believed constantly for 30 years is that America should be tougher on trade and retaliate against foreign governments who he thinks rip the U.S. off. Trump doesn't believe it when people tell him America has to leave heavy manufacturing behind and evolve into a sophisticated service economy. Everything he's doing is about bringing back manufacturing jobs.

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  • The globalist versus nationalist divisions in the White House are less than meet the eye when it comes to trade, because everyone knows where Trump stands. In his appearance this week at a Washington conference, Gary Cohn kept emphasizing "fair" trade.
  • Cohn also embraced Trump's favorite word (
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    ) — a word that makes free traders feel nauseous.
  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who's closer to Trump than many realize,
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    who wanted America to join them in rejecting "protectionism."
  • North Korea got all the headlines during the recent trip to Asia by VP Mike Pence and Commerce's Ross. But this trip was planned well in advance and trade was a major agenda item. Trump is committed to remaking Asian trading relationships, including a bilateral deal with Japan (despite resistance from the Japanese.)
  • Another country to watch for trade negotiations (or re-negotiations): South Korea.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

China bite the bullet and clamp down on excess capacity and it has nothing to do with Trump threat to levy duty. But they have to do it step by step. Another 40 companies are forewarned of their failure to install emergency production restriction during heavy pollution
China clamps down on excess steel as Japan decries Trump 'protectionism'

MANILA/BEIJING (Reuters) - Twenty-nine Chinese steel firms have had their licenses revoked as Beijing kept up its campaign to tackle overcapacity in the sector and days after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would open a probe into cheap steel exports from China and elsewhere.

Analysts say the revocations were unlikely to be a direct response to Trump's plan, but rather a part of China's reform measures aimed at reducing surplus steel capacity that many estimate at around 300 million tonnes, about three times Japan's annual output.

The official China Daily said Washington's move to investigate steel imports could trigger a trade dispute between the United States and its trading partners. In Japan, the world's second-biggest steel producer after China, the head of its steelmakers' group expressed concern over Trump's protectionist policy.

"We are greatly concerned over Trump's protectionism, although we hear he has softened his tone on some issues with a grasp of reality," Japan Iron and Steel Federation chairman Kosei Shindo told a news conference on Monday.

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a list on Monday of 29 firms that will be removed from its official register of steel enterprises. Most have already stopped producing steel, but some had illegally expanded production or violated state closure orders.

"It's all enveloped in this strategy to improve the financial condition of the industry which has been weighed down by excess capacity for some time, partly as a result of inefficient operations," said Daniel Hynes, commodity strategist at ANZ.

China is aiming to shed between 100 million to 150 million tonnes of excess capacity over the 2016-2020 period. It also plans to shut around 100 million tonnes of low-grade steel production by the end of June.

On Monday, another 40 steel firms have been asked to make changes in areas such as environmental protection and safety.

The majority of the companies were accused of failing to comply with emergency output restrictions during heavy pollution periods, and they must fully "rectify" their violations within a prescribed period, the industry ministry said, without giving a specific time frame.

Hynes said China may take a more gradual approach in shutting inefficient mills rather than force "a lot of closures at once" and cause a spike in steel prices, which is what happened in the third quarter last year.

China set up an official steel firm register in 2009 to impose order on the poorly regulated industry and to help companies during price negotiations with iron ore suppliers overseas.

The register was also supposed to identify the mergers and closures required to meet a target to put 60 percent of China's steel capacity in the hands of its 10 biggest producers by the end of 2015.

However, industry consolidation rates actually fell to 34.2 percent over the 2011-2015 period, from 48.6 percent in the previous five-year period, and China has now pushed back the 60 percent target until 2025.

According to figures published by the official China Metallurgical News earlier this month, 292 out of a total of 635 firms in 12 provinces and cities have already ceased production or shut down completely.

(Reporting by Manolo Serapio Jr in Manila and Beijing Monitoring Desk; Editing by Tom Hogue and Christian Schmollinger)

 

[Equation]

Uh oh these robots one day could be replacing human labors?

China is a gold mine for innovation, says head of Chinese robot firm

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Sophia Yan

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April 24, 2017
China [/a]holds excellent opportunities for entrepreneurship and innovation, according to Yu Zhichen, CEO of Turing Robot, a firm looking to make it big in artificial intelligence.

"I've been to the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and Israel, and the opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship in China are just as good — in some respects it's actually better," Yu told CNBC.

That's because China is already a pretty tech-savvy place and firms continue investing in R&D, according to Yu, who added that the country's giant manufacturing machine means everything can happen in one place.

Like in many countries, technology firms have taken the spotlight in China's entrepreneurial space. And it's an increasingly important part of the growing private sector, as the government guides the economy away from the old growth model of manufacturing and exports, and into the modern era with services and consumption as the main drivers.

Beijing has made it clear that developing advanced technology and capabilities are a priority. In 2015, the government announced its "Made in China 2025" plan, a policy initiative meant to supercharge development in key high-tech areas including advanced medical devices, semiconductors and aerospace equipment.

But some critics have said that plan will unfairly prop up Chinese companies as the government pays out giant subsidies and gives domestic firms preferential treatment. It may also mean foreign firms start to lose access to the Chinese market.

Above Image: Robots from Turing Robot. Courtesy Turing Robot." style="margin-bottom: 1em;">Above Image: Robots from Turing Robot. Courtesy Turing Robot.

Jack Ma [/a]of Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) and Robin Li of Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU).

Turing Robot, for instance, has not only developed a voice recognition software that is capable of understanding Mandarin and overlaying that with artificial intelligence services, but it has also created an operating system that can be used for robots — including a toy robot meant to offer companionship to children.

In the long run, robots could end up with the ability to do tons of things. But we're still at least a few years off from having to worry about machines replacing humans, said Yu, 32.

"At this point, the technology still needs time to develop — maybe in 5 to 10 years we can start worrying about this issue," he said. Plus, "robots should be seen more as a friend, rather than competition."

In the future, though, robots are likely to contribute an increasing amount to the overall economy. "As this industry develops, robots will add more support and take on more duties," Yu said. And when asked about a suggestion that Bill Gates has before raised, a tax on robots, Yu said the idea could very possibly become reality — especially if machines begin adding more value to GDP.

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