Chinese Economics Thread

Blackstone

Brigadier
Can't bash China when you've been wrong for so long. Gordon Chang and his type can go eat crow.:p;)
Gordon Chang's just doing a head fake, and five will get you ten he has baskets full of China collapse story to hawk Forbes and Fox News. Don't get me wrong, Fox News is the best alternative to the Lame Stream Media ,and it's my favorite news agency, but I don't always agree with their narrative.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
And here's Gordon Chang's weekly comedy tabloid. Quick! Someone call Xi Jinping and tell him Gordon Chang says it's over for China.

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, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry completed a two-day trip to Beijing. The day before, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi wrapped up his
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, Shanghai, and Beijing. Everyone, it seems, is going to China, implicitly acknowledging that this is indeed its century.

In reality, however, the period of Chinese primacy, if it ever existed, is just about over. Neither Modi nor Kerry was in any mood to accommodate Beijing on core issues.

We start with Modi. The Indian leader was happy to travel to China to pick up commitments for Chinese investment into his country, and on this score, he appeared successful. On Saturday, he inked twenty-six memos of understanding for business deals
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by his government at $22 billion.

Modi, however, was not persuaded to agree to what Beijing wanted. He did not, for instance, endorse Chinese president Xi Jinping’s “
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.” This initiative, considered the centerpiece of Xi’s foreign policy, seeks to create trade routes through Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and the Indian Ocean connecting China to Europe. Modi, of course, did not give an inch on China’s expansive claims to India-controlled territory.

And in public, he surprised observers by telling the Chinese to be more accommodating. “I stressed the need for China to reconsider its approach on some of the issues that hold us back from realizing full potential of our partnership,”
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while in Beijing. “I suggested that China should take a strategic and long-term view of our relations.”

“For him to say we hope the Chinese will reconsider their approach—it’s very politely put,”
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Siddharth Varadarajan of the Indian news site The Wire. “But that’s quite a strong way to put it.”

Kerry also used strong words, from all accounts. As a State Department official
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before the visit, the Secretary of State was traveling to China to “leave his Chinese interlocutors in absolutely no doubt that the United States remains committed to maintain freedom of navigation.” Xinhua, China’s official news agency,
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: Kerry was coming to Beijing to “pick a fight.”

In fact, Kerry had hoped to find a diplomatic solution, but neither side
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on the South China Sea during the weekend meetings.

None of this is to say that China cannot make agreements with India or the United States on specific issues. Kerry, for his part, talked about progress on climate change and terrorism, for instance. Modi’s trip resulted in the signing of two dozen government-to-government framework agreements on Friday. And as the widely quoted Madhav Nalapat of Manipal University has
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, India and China share strategic interests and can work together.

Nonetheless, as Beijing adopts harsher policies, the areas where it can cooperate with others shrink. And the areas of disagreement are becoming more important, therefore more difficult to solve.

Take the South China Sea, for instance. Despite what Xinhua said, it was China picking the fight. In that critical body of water—annual seaborne commerce there totals $5 trillion—Beijing claims virtually all the islands, reefs, and shoals and about four fifths of the water as its own.

Chinese officials maintain America has no legitimate interest there. “The United States is not a party in the South China Sea disputes, which are between China and other claimants and should be handled by those directly involved,” Xinhua
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on Saturday.

So China is telling Washington to abandon America’s oldest foreign policy, the defense of freedom of navigation. That is unacceptable for the ultimate guarantor of the global commons. Various sources, starting with the Wall Street Journal,
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that the Pentagon is drawing up plans to send U.S. vessels and aircraft to challenge Beijing’s sovereignty claims that impinge on freedom of navigation; in other words, those claims that purport to turn international sea into Chinese territorial water.

At the beginning of this century, Beijing was able to compromise on those claims. Yet, for more than a half decade, it has not signed an agreement to settle a border dispute. And there is little sign of compromise in the near term, as Xi Jinping’s statements make clear. As the Chinese economy continues to erode, the Communist Party is increasingly relying on nationalism to bolster legitimacy, and as it becomes more nationalistic, its ability to work with other nations has markedly declined.

Beijing and Washington like to talk about “win-win cooperation,” but Beijing is deliberately creating zero-sum contests. So relations going forward between the two capitals will fundamentally change, and they promise to turn decidedly nasty as Beijing is forcing issues that cannot be compromised. As Kerry
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on Saturday, “Where we may have different opinions, we don’t simply agree to disagree and move on.”

Washington once had a policy of moving on whenever there was disagreement with Beijing. The concept was that America could overlook current problems because eventually the Chinese would enmesh themselves into the international system and work as partners for peace. That optimistic view is changing as it is becoming increasingly evident that Chinese officials do not share American goals or the goals of China’s neighbors.

Similarly, in New Delhi there seems, over time, to be less optimism as well. Modi’s China trip was not the “complete and utter failure” that
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—partisan criticisms can be overblown—but not many thought real progress had been made, either.

And that is why the Chinese century is coming to a close. Both the world’s most populous democracy and its most powerful one are now viewing China in darker terms—and beginning to act accordingly.

Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang.
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Franklin

Captain
And here's Gordon Chang's weekly comedy tabloid. Quick! Someone call Xi Jinping and tell him Gordon Chang says it's over for China.

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Gordon Chang is a Chinese agent. He was recruited by the Chinese intelligence services back in the 1990's when he was living in Shanghai. His task was to go back to America and spread misinformation and cause confusion about China. And he has been doing his job excellently over the past 20 years or so. Last week he showed his true colors with that article about Shenzhen but his Chinese handlers told him to get back on message and therefor this article here.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Gordon Chang is a Chinese agent. He was recruited by the Chinese intelligence services back in the 1990's when he was living in Shanghai. His task was to go back to America and spread misinformation and cause confusion about China. And he has been doing his job excellently over the past 20 years or so. Last week he showed his true colors with that article about Shenzhen but his Chinese handlers told him to get back on message and therefor this article here.
Dear Mister Franklin, I don't believe you! There's no way Gordon Chang is a Chinese spy, because no agency other than the Keystone Cops would hire him. QED.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Signs that China's reforms may be paying off have sprung up in the eastern coastal city of Hangzhou, where a booming high-tech and software sector has fired up the local economy in defiance of a nationwide slowdown.

From venture capital funds to big data firms, hundreds of technology-linked companies have set up shop in Hangzhou, capital of Zhejiang province, to create a thriving services center that is picking up the slack from wilting factory growth.

Once home to thousands of makers of household wares, Zhejiang's transformation is an exemplar of Chinese leaders' vision of an economy powered less by exports and investment and more by services and advanced industry, as embodied in the country's "Made in China 2025" strategy published on Tuesday.

The province, which accounted for 6.3 percent of China's economy last year, is benefiting from reforms being rolled out across China, such as tax breaks for high-tech firms, more funding for internet start-ups, and a better logistics network to aid e-commerce.

A case in point, Kuaidi Dache, part of China's biggest taxi-hailing app, employs close to 2,000 workers today, compared with fewer than 10 just three years ago.

102696502-hangzhou.530x298.jpg

Andy Brandl | Moment | Getty Images
The CBD skyline of Hangzhou, China.
"Kuaidi was founded in Hangzhou, which has a very open economy and is very receptive to new technologies," said Zhao Dong, Kuaidi's co-founder and chief operating officer.

At the Internet Finance Building in west Hangzhou, which houses technology start-ups, Silicon Valley culture is taking root.

Young workers stroll about in tee-shirts, jeans and sneakers, and offices are lined with treadmills, ping-pong tables and spaces for Friday night parties.

Growth in Zhejiang accelerated to 8.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, up from 7 percent a year earlier, while growth in the rest of China slipped to 7 percent, a quarterly low not seen since the depths of the 2008/09 global financial crisis.

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In Hangzhou, a city of 7 million people just an hour's train ride from Shanghai, local authorities have long allowed private enterprise to flourish.

It is the birthplace of e-commerce giant
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, which earned annual revenues of 76.2 billion yuan ($12.3 billion) in its last financial year, and hired nearly 13,000 employees in the year since March 2014.

"There's a whole ecosystem that has developed around Alibaba," said Jin Zhongkun, co-founder of Loafer's Weekend, a Hangzhou events app that promotes activities to subscribers.

"It used to be that Zhejiang was supported by small and medium-sized enterprises that focused on exports, but now you see a lot of really good venture capital firms."

The marrying kind

Hangzhou is not unique. The services sector in the southern city of Shenzhen is also expanding rapidly, and growth in other local economies in eastern China has only slowed a shade this year. Countrywide, the services sector is employing an increasing share of the working population, up to 38.5 percent in 2013, leaving manufacturing behind on 30 percent.

Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa in Hong Kong, said this would put a floor beneath China's economic slowdown, though it could only temper the drag on growth from headwinds such as China's massive local government debt. Eastern provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang are among China's most indebted local governments.

For Liu Yang, a deputy manager at Hangzhou Efuton Tea, one of China's top online tea sellers, Hangzhou's pro-business environment is a model for the rest of China.

Companies here receive "enormous" state support, Liu said. Entrepreneurs get housing subsidies, and companies are invited to networking and industrial design events run by the government. Liu had just returned from a local-government-led tour of Haier Group, China's biggest household appliance maker, in Qingdao, eastern China.

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Equation

Lieutenant General
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Premier Li Keqiang said he was confident China has the ability to meet its 2015 economic growth target of around 7 percent, the official news agency Xinhua said on Thursday.

China is set for its slowest growth in a quarter of a century this year and has rolled out a series of measures since last year to shore up the flagging economy and reduce the risk of falling short of its official growth targets.

"We have the ability and confidence to meet this target and to maintain medium-to-high speed economic growth," Li said, according to Xinhua.

Li was speaking in Brazil where he has been announcing trade, finance and investment deals worth tens of billions of dollars in energy, mining, aviation.

China's money supply grew at its slowest pace on record in April and investment growth sank to its lowest in nearly 15 years, suggesting the world's second-largest economy was still losing momentum despite a burst of interest rate cuts and other policy easing.

More stimulus measures are expected in coming months.



(Reporting by Adam Jourdan and Chen Yixin; Editing by Sh

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Equation

Lieutenant General
MANILA (Reuters) - China is proposing to include non-Asian countries on the board of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in a move interpreted by some nations as giving small shareholders a voice in the institution, the Philippines' finance chief said on Wednesday.

The planned governance mechanism of the China-backed AIIB includes a provision that prevents any country from having more than one seat on the 12-member board of directors, Cesar Purisima told reporters.

The comments came as founding members of the bank began a three-day meeting in Singapore to discuss operational policies and other issues for the establishment of the institution.

"There is a provision splitting the 12 (board members) into nine regional and three non-regional", Purisima said. "That helps out the smaller countries."

"I am seeing features that make it more inclusive."

China says it will not hold veto power inside the AIIB, unlike the World Bank where the United States has a limited veto.


Founder members will initially pay up to one-fifth of the AIIB'S $50 billion (32 billion pounds) authorised capital, which will eventually be raised to $100 billion.

Peter Garber, a senior adviser in Deutsche Bank’s global markets research, told reporters in Singapore the creation of a multilateral bank may help overcome governance problems that China has faced in the past on some bilateral loans.

But competition from multilateral institutions and other bilateral lenders such as Japan could be a challenge for the new institution.

AIIB "is starting up in a world where there are lots of suppliers of capital, as we see with the sudden entry of Japan, so it may not be so easy to find projects", Garber said.

Apart from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, plans are also underway for a development bank by countries that form the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Japan's Jiji Press said on Tuesday Japan would announce a $100 billion plan to invest in roads, bridges, railways and other projects in Asia.
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