Chinese Economics Thread

I think that's already clear now from the current Huawei surge, much thanks to Trump for waking these people up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...r-u-s-brands-this-year-in-china-s-singles-day
American Brands Aren’t Getting Any Love in China’s Singles’ Day

U.S. brands may see a broad boycott at the world’s biggest shopping event this year as tensions between the U.S. and China over everything from tariffs to technological dominance simmer.

More than three-quarters of Chinese consumers surveyed said they’ll reconsider buying from American companies during the Singles’ Day shopping event on Nov. 11, according to a report released last week by consulting firm AlixPartners LLC. Of those, more than half cited allegiance to their nation as the reason for doing so.

“U.S. brands can expect some disruption because of the consequences of the US-China trade war on consumer sentiment,” the report said.

Singles' Day Patriots
78% of Chinese shoppers will rethink U.S. brands for following reasons
Source: AlixPartners survey
Note: Survey conducted with over 2,000 Chinese consumers between Oct. 2-7, with most respondents living in tier 1 and 2 cities

Chinese consumers are spurring a wave of nationalistic spending as they become more sensitive to any perceived slight on their culture or sovereignty amid a multi-year trade conflict between the U.S. and China. As Western firms increasingly look to China for future growth given the size of the market, shoppers have held them up to scrutiny, calling out companies from Coach to Calvin Klein for running afoul of Beijing’s political sensitivities.

Launched a decade ago by e-commerce behemoth Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. as a celebration by consumers for being single -- a play off Valentine’s Day -- the Nov. 11 event has become bigger than Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined. Last year, there was more than $30 billion in sales over 24 hours.

 

Cut out some less important parts to fit the single post limit.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-boycott-as-chinese-turn-to-homegrown-brands
U.S. Fears Mass Boycott as Chinese Turn to Homegrown Brands

When a Chinese automaker set out to find a celebrity endorser for its new electric cars earlier this year, the talent agency it tapped suggested Captain America actor Chris Evans. Signing up one of the stars of Avengers: Endgame, the highest-grossing film of all time, would be perfect for a splashy global ad campaign, the agency figured.

The proposal got a hard pass.

“They looked at that and said, ‘We’ve got lots of Chinese investors. It’s too risky for us to invest in Captain America during this trade war,’ ” says Michael MacRitchie, founder of Sydney-based MGI Entertainment. The carmaker plans to go with a Chinese celebrity, he says, declining to name the company because deliberations are private.

Yet Western fashion, car, beauty, food, and other consumer brands were mostly exempted from restrictions on selling on the mainland and were seen by many of China’s elite as status symbols.

That’s changing for consumers such as Ziyu Sun, a 23-year-old engineer in China’s eastern city of Qingdao. He says patriotism was a big reason behind his buying a Huawei phone, adding that he’s read many online articles on Alibaba’s Taobao marketplace and Twitter-like Weibo promoting support for domestic brands. “But the quality of Huawei phones is also very good,” he says. Same goes for Yongming Su, a high school teacher in Beijing who points to his Chinese-made Vivo phone as an example that, all things being equal, he would “support and buy domestic brands over foreign ones.”

Such thinking could pose a major challenge for American businesses in 2020. The U.S. sold almost $120 billion in goods to China in 2018, making it the country’s third-largest export market after Canada and Mexico, according to the US-China Business Council. Many American brands such as Nike, Apple, and General Motors have staked their growth prospects on the promise of attracting shoppers in the world’s most populous country. GM, America’s oldest automaker, sells more cars in China now than in the U.S. “Consumer sentiment is something we’re obviously keeping a close eye on,” says GM China President Matt Tsien.

Some American companies now worry that a preference for buying Chinese could morph into an all-out boycott of U.S. goods, as happened when Beijing banned consumers from buying South Korea’s goods in retaliation for its government saying in 2016 it would let the U.S. build a missile defense system in the country. The results of that action: Korean companies lost an estimated $15.6 billion in revenue, hitting giants such as supermarket operator Lotte Shopping Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. particularly hard, according to the Hyundai Research Institute.

Many Chinese brands, particularly makers of electronics such as Huawei Technologies Co. and Xiaomi Corp., now perform at the same level as their Western counterparts. The quality gains and increased advertising budgets have led shoppers to recognize them as household names. But amplified national pride is also playing a role in their growth. “Local heroes are fueling Chinese consumers’ growing confidence,” according to a recent report on China’s most popular brands by consulting firm Prophet.

In 2019, Chinese companies such as Huawei and drone maker SZ DJI Technology Co. edged out once-untouchable American companies like Apple and Nike from the list of China’s 10 most favorite brands, according to Prophet’s annual survey of 13,500 consumers. Local names made up half of the top 50 brands in 2019, compared with just 18 three years earlier, with Alipay, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s payment service, and Huawei taking the top two spots.

And the stock price of Chinese coatmaker Bosideng International Holdings Ltd. surged more than 200% in the past year as consumers bypassed rival Canada Goose Holdings Inc. after Canada’s detention of Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou.

Alibaba’s popular shopping site Tmall says it saw a jump in sales of domestic brands around China’s National Day, thanks to what it called “a wave of patriotism” tied to the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The retail site says 8 of its 10 highest-grossing beauty brands came from China, and a video game called Homeland Dream, developed by Tencent Holdings Ltd., shot to the top of the most-downloaded charts.

China’s celebration of self is also manifesting in so-called red tourism and red culture, where Chinese film, hip-hop, and even science fiction seem to be having a moment. State officials say that half a billion people in 2018 visited patriotic sites such as Beijing’s Tiananmen Square and Military Museum and that authorities plan to spend 2.64 billion yuan ($373 million) to develop attractions through 2020.

Sensing a business opportunity, China’s social media stars are embracing their love of country. Many are also scared of running afoul of Beijing’s strict rules on what can be said on the internet, which puts the onus on online account holders to temper their own posts, as well as fans’ replies and comments in groups they moderate.

One Shanghai-based blogger with more than 300,000 fans on Instagram and Weibo used to stick to photos and videos of Christian Louboutin heels and Gucci gowns. But for the 70th anniversary celebration she decided to post something a little different: an old photo of a Chinese model in a red silk dress posing in front of Tiananmen Square for Vogue China. The caption read: “China, red hot.” In June she also posted a photo of herself in a billowing pink dress holding a flower over her left eye with the caption “Calling for peace, #hongkong #China,” a reference to protests in the semiautonomous city.

She says the shift in Chinese nationalism has caused her to rethink whom she works for, and even which fashion-week runway shows to see. “I avoided Coach, Versace, and Givenchy because as a public figure I think it’s extra-sensitive what your stance is,” she says. “I don’t think I would openly support any brands that publicly disagree with the political beliefs of the majority of the Chinese people.”

The same goes for beauty blogger Melilim Fu, who has started her own line of skin-care and beauty products emblazoned with “Made in China” labeling. “All these shoppers know everything is made in China anyway, so there’s an opportunity for products with good prices and quality to capture that sense of national pride,” says Elijah Whaley, who co-manages the brand.

Across all categories on Tmall, three-quarters of brands incorporated the phrase “Made in China” on their product pages, up from less than half in 2017, according to research firm Gartner L2. Another study from researcher Nielsen in August showed that 68% of Chinese consumers preferred homegrown brands.

MacRitchie, of the Australian talent agency, has learned that to appease his Chinese clients he has to stay away from American spokespeople: For a recent ad campaign for a Chinese sportswear brand, he chose European supermodel Karolina Kurkova instead. His client is a Chinese national with Chinese investors, “so they don’t want to invest in American celebrities because it seems ideologically at a crossroads with where we are right now.”

 

Probably the reason why multinational chameleon Lenovo is trying to remind the Chinese markets they're Chinese. What you thought Lenovo was American? Chinese nationalistic consumer goes buy a Xiaomi or Huawei laptop instead.

 

Ouch! Not sure Asean countries communicated on their decisions not to attend. Either way, the intended or unintended message has been sent to you know who.



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...trump-skips-bangkok-meeting?srnd=premium-asia
Asean Leaders Snub U.S. Summit After Trump Skips Bangkok Meeting


ASEAN summit in Bangkok on Nov. 2. Photographer: Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP via Getty Images

Most Southeast Asian leaders skipped a summit on Monday with U.S. representatives after President Donald Trump decided to avoid the annual meetings for a second straight year.

Leaders from Thailand, Laos and Vietnam were the only ones to show up from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations for the summit with National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, who was leading the U.S. delegation. It was the lowest level representation for the U.S. at the meetings since Barack Obama upgraded ties with Asean in 2011.

In remarks at the summit, O’Brien said the U.S. must defend its relationship with Asean at all costs. He read aloud a letter from Trump inviting regional leaders to join him in the U.S. for a special summit.

No Trump or Pence in Bangkok Has Asia Questioning U.S. Strategy

The three leaders who attended included Prayuth Chan-Ocha of Thailand, the current chair of Asean; Thongloun Sisoulith of Laos, the coordinator between the bloc and the U.S.; and Nguyen Xuan Phuc of Vietnam, which will host the Asean meetings in 2020. Thai foreign ministry spokeswoman Busadee Santipitaks confirmed the other leaders stayed away.

Video from the event showed seven foreign ministers sitting at a table usually reserved for prime ministers. Santipitaks’ statement came after a reporter questioned why only three leaders were in attendance.

The U.S. had expressed concern to Asean diplomats about the “intentional effort to embarrass” Trump with the partial boycott, the Bangkok Post reported, citing an unidentified diplomat. “We are extremely concerned by the apparent decision,” the diplomat quoted a U.S. message to the bloc as saying, according to the newspaper.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who is also in Bangkok, defended U.S. strategy in Asia on Monday. He said Trump remains “fully committed” to the Indo-Pacific, citing 24 senior U.S. officials and eight government agencies represented at the meetings.

“In terms of our participation here, it’s very, very fulsome,” Ross said in an interview.

The U.S. and Asean made no immediate statements after the meeting. China sent Premier Li Keqiang -- President Xi Jinping’s No. 2 -- as it does every year.

 

America really wants China to take Taiwan eh?

 

India OPTS out of RCEP.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/s...-still-a-major-step-forward-says-pm-lee-hsien

https://businessmirror.com.ph/2019/11/04/15-of-16-countries-forge-rcep-trade-pact-india-opts-out/

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/c...india-rejects-rcep-deal-as-others-move-ahead/

 

India opting out is not really accurate. It's more like lagging behind. From your second link:

"In a message to reporters, Lopez said India is now open to be identified as one RCEP country that has pending issues on rules and market access.

'It is now clear only the 15 countries concluded for now since India has until next year to settle his remaining issues , and decide if he can still sign with the 15 countries next year,'he said.

'So the assumption now is that they are in, but must settle outstanding issues, and that we all want the 16 to sign next year,' he added."

In truth, it's obvious that India's really being held behind by its unrealistic ambitions of being the next leader and superpower of Asia over China. They're not looking for deals that are good for them or help their economy; they're looking for deals that can help them leapfrog China because they already feel far behind China. China didn't get into its current position of power by only looking for deals that would allow it to leap over the US; China took every deal that was good for it and thus grew little by little until its accumulated power was massive. It is really going to hurt India if they reject everything everything with a small or moderate amount of benefit to them in search of only deals that are hugely supportive of India becoming some next Asian champion over China.

 

Yes, even the average Chinese citizen is aware now that the U.S. is not a friend. More confirmation of this is in the same Forbes article, the one showing that Huawei has 42% of China's smartphone market: it also showed that Apple's Chinese market share dropped 28%. As your Bloomberg articles also show, there's definitely a rejection of American products.

As you say, we can almost thank Trump for making brutally clear that the U.S. is not a friend of China. No friend of mine lies about me.

 

Breaking news : China says it agreed with the US to roll back tariff in phases - according to Bloomberg

Chinese Yuan is strengthening 0.6% to 6.97 now 10am GMT

I can sense Trump is desperate now ..... trade war is indeed easy to win , especially when you only have one weapon ... "tariff" .... tariff can do everything according to Mr Trump

 

So either:
1. This is more delay tactics by China.
2. Tariffs really do go down before elections. Trump wins. Tariffs back up again. China waits 4 more years.
3. Tariffs really do go down before elections. Trump wins. They try different tactics next round.
4. Trump loses. The most socialist president ever comes into power. Who knows what happens then.