China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

Re: China's DF-41

BLUEJACKET said:

I now have bad news for you. The older

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with 12-15K km range can reach Boston, NY, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, DC even if launched from Eastern China over the N. Pole, as fig. 92 illustrates-

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BlueJacket: hey! did I say DF-5 can't not reach US eastern area? DF-5 launch range simillar to DF-41,but DF-5 with liquid fuel that too slow launch, and it placed in the well,not even able survive- they started operational in 80'century,in that time China was different strategy and not capable of making solid fuel ICBM.
I also agree what you said DF- 31 can not reach US eastern if it launch in west China,please check my post( first post I already mentioned DF-5 )
also,Asymptote' oppinion against your opinion what you post at Back fire vs Tu-22m thread I remeber you rather like ground launch ballistic missile than long range bomber, I agree your oppinion for this. I think you misunderstood.

Asympytote:
what is " air launch ballistic missile " ? which long range bomber can launch ballistic missile?

Re: China's DF-41

@Asymptote: Yes my post was in parts about the mighty RT-23 the most capable solid ICBM the USSR fielded in the 80´s. Her ´sister´R-39 SLBM was deployed on the Akula (Typhoon) SSBN (48000 ts displacement dived) also since 1981. I never maintained that these missiles were the biggest or most capable or whatever in the soviet arsenal since I am of course aware of the fact that the R-36M had a much superior throwweight than her solid powered counterparts. :coffee:

My intention was to show that China should take steps to reach a sufficient level in solid missile technology to develop, produce and deploy a comparable mobile system in the near future. Correspondingly China should desist from putting money into giant UDMH fueled missiles which will also be phased out by the russians themselves in the next few years. All notable nuclear powers are currently deploying and developing only solid powered ICBM ´s (France is currently testing her new M-51 and India has also chosen the solid path for her Surya/Agni IV project) and the old dinosaurs like DF-5A and R-36M/M2 will be gone in the near future.

Your suggestion about air launched ICBM´s is quite interesting and perhaps the PLA is indeed doing some development work in the area (there are rumours about an airlaunched version of the KT-2). In addition with long-range air based stealthy cruise missiles (may be even supersonic) these kind of forces would give China a very credible secondstrike capability in times of crisis.

After all China has to avoid pouring too much money in SSBN/SLBM systems since China´s geostrategic location is simply not adequate for this (USA, India, France and even Russia have better access to oceanic waters) and USN will find ways to neutralize 4, 8 or even 12 SSBN premptively for decades to come. The whole SSBN thing is mere prestige and propaganda and PLAN admirals will find ways to get the budget for 4 or 6 units in the next decade but PLAN´s role in enhancing China´s startegic security will be limited indeed.

China needs road and rail mobile ICBM like DF-31A, DF-41 in sufficient numbers (around 150 perhaps, able to pierce the US ABM shield up until 2020) and also a Small ICBM like the former USAF Midgetman project (13.6 ts, 11000 km range, 475 kt warhead) establishing a decisive factor of uncertainty for every power willing to take the chance of blackmailing or attacking China with a nuclear sword.:nono:

Air based ICBM´s and cruise missiles will probably play an auxilliary or substitutional role in a more regional limited form of deterrence against China´s nuclear neighbours.:nono:

Introducing new technologies like some form of orbital based deterrence will have to wait since a new US administration more prone to rational negotiations will take power in 2009.

Re: China's DF-41

maozedong said:

Asympytote:
what is " air launch ballistic missile " ? which long range bomber can launch ballistic missile?

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Perhaps I should clarify..I mean to say "air launched cruise missile" (ALCM).

But then again, I don't see why an ICBM usually mounted on truck can't be piggy back on a heavy bomber (like B-52 or even a civilian aircraft 747) and launched from a high angle position. I am sure it can be done given today's technology. I mean even the space shuttles are transported it this way.


The B-52 can carry 36,750 kg
The launch mass of Minuteman is 36,030 kg
The weight may be reduced considering that it will be launch at very high altitude, one stage of the rocket motor can probably be taken out or atleast reduced in size and weight, which means it maybe able to fit atleast one ALBMs.

Or :
Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack can carry 40,000 kg of ordnance
Which means it may carry one stragic ALBM. (ofcourse, I am dreaming here.. China would never get Tu-160 or B-52)

Most likely, it can be put on China's own Xian H-6 capable of carrying 38,800 kg... it is still very doable.

Come to think of it... I think this Air Launch ICBM idea came from watching "Superman Return"


Edit: After a little googling... I found "ALBM" did exist!
The Skybolt Air-Launched Ballistic Missile



Note that the british defense strategist have similar sentiments about the shortcome of their own landmass:

"At the same time the Royal Air Force was having problems with their IRBM missile project, Blue Streak. Not only was the missile long overdue and over budget, but the limited land area available on the British isles meant that it would be fairly easy for the USSR to find, and thus attack, the silos. They felt that the Skybolt would provide a much safer basing system.."

And I agree with your assessment Violet Oboe. China's coastal area are not suitable for SLBM or fleet operation. The Silo and mobile launchers are still vulnerable to first-strike, while a fast moving high flying ICBM bombing platform is a much safer bet and deterrent. It can be launch from within China well inside the protection of air defense.

Re: China's DF-41

maozedong said:

BlueJacket: hey! did I say DF-5 can't not reach US eastern area? DF-5 launch range simillar to DF-41,but DF-5 with liquid fuel that too slow launch, and it placed in the well,not even able survive- they started operational in 80'century,in that time China was different strategy and not capable of making solid fuel ICBM.
I also agree what you said DF- 31 can not reach US eastern if it launch in west China,please check my post( first post I already mentioned DF-5 )

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Yes, I know. I just mentioned DF-5s to show that although they are not the most modern, if well camouflaged they could be used in retaliation even against Eastern CONUS.
SLBM will be out of range & won't be able to do that since SSBNs that carry them must, to be survivable, stay in their bastions near China's coast, like I wrote in posts #11&#16. Also in post #13 of the same tread, there is some info on air-launched ICBMs.

Re: China's DF-41

this is my last reply for the disccusion.
1 DF-5 missile will be retire, it's life is limited, some already expire.
2 DF-41 finally instead of DF-5.
3 China has constructed lots of tunnels in mountains for DF-31 and DF-41 since 90'century, now, the tunnels around over China every where. the tunnels under the mountains more than 500 feet, if destory them, each tunnel needs 3 of 500 thousand ton TNT nuclear "drill" head missile attack in a same spot then can destory it, ballistic missile can not attack so correct for a spot. also China did lots of disguise construction around the real tunnels, everything China did very careful, US satelites can not search it.
4 in my first post I transfrom the news report that China loading strategy missiles on missle launch trains.
5 sources report that China will make 4-6 of 094 SSBN, each SSBN can launch 16 JL-2 missles, each missle has more than 6 divide head,2 or 3 of them are induction head, 4 of them are real nuclear bomb heads, multiple 4 x 16 = 64, US can not block all of the SSBN in the coast of China, especially China already arranged 094 SSBN in south China sea, the water deepth over 400 feet,US anti-sub weapon hard to search it.if nuclear war happen,only one of 094 SSBN leaves the coast, there will be 64 nuclear bombs (100 thousand ton TNT for each) fall in torrent of US east area.
6 air nuclear power is the worst selection,after first nuclear attack, most airports are destoyed, and the long range bomber will be block at door of China,US sets lots of far range search radar around Taiwan, Japan,Korea, Australia and many Pacific ocean island, any bomber can not crosst Pacific ocean to US,also, it is too slow - from bomber preparation and take off, from China to US, how long will take? the bomber leaves China will be shoot down soon,as US strong air defence power.

Re: China's DF-41

Please check my post #391 about SSBNs.
has aof of 8,000km, the same as , which

was developed as a land-based version of the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

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.
To target all of CONUS, 094 SSBN will have to either patrol in the S.Pacific between NZ & S.America/C.Pac between Guam and Hawaii , or in the Arctic- the 1st choice will be suicidal as it's not anywhere as quiet as the USN Ohio class, and the 2nd for the same reason (the USN's SSNs been for decades against the mighty Soviet/Russian ), plus China has no direct access to the Arctic Ocean shore as Russia has, to use it as a submarine bastion- the same goes for the Sea of Okhotsk. So, IMHO (and I'm not alone in this) the geography and current technology isn't in PLAN's favor for using its SSBNs as a credible 2nd strike role against the USA.
I'm not going to return to this topic either- enogh said about it already, here and on other treads!

This is how DF-41 could look like in the taiga-

Re: China's DF-41

Dear Sirs:

I remember that picture! Straight out of the Pentagon's Soviet Military Power Series! It depicts the hypothetical deployment of an SS-24, not any Chinese missile deployment. Hmmm...

Best Regards,

Dusky Lim

Re: China's DF-41

I figured it's pretty close to DF-41 pictures on this tread and the background/setting is similar to where mobile ICBMs could easily hide.

Roger604 said:

If China appears to lack an effective second strike capability, it would be too easy for the US to force China to back down with nuclear threats.

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I'm interested in whether there has been a definitive discussion of China's second strike capability. edit: I have read down and saw the link to Nuclear Forces Thread. Very nice this forums seems good quality perhaps better than defencetalk My understanding is this.

- second strike is certain against 50,000 american personnel and their bases in Asia, by way of the Xia nuclear submarine and medium range missiles.

- the deploy numbers of DF-31 alone can be expected to take out dozens of population centers in west coast

- Unlike USA, China can hide the location of its silos. There are a large number of decoys as well. DF-5 can also be redeployed strategicly, as we see them in parades. The liquid fueling delay was a problem in horizontal storage mode, but they are not relevant inside silos, which I believe all DF-5's have today. Besides USA can expect to lose much of its satellite surveillance once hostility begins.

Therefore I do not see how USA can make a credible offensive nuclear threat which can limit China's conventional options.

Kirby

Violet Oboe said:

After all China has to avoid pouring too much money in SSBN/SLBM systems since China´s geostrategic location is simply not adequate for this (USA, India, France and even Russia have better access to oceanic waters) and USN will find ways to neutralize 4, 8 or even 12 SSBN premptively for decades to come. The whole SSBN thing is mere prestige and propaganda and PLAN admirals will find ways to get the budget for 4 or 6 units in the next decade but PLAN´s role in enhancing China´s startegic security will be limited indeed.

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Why do you think USA can neutralize so many SSBN's? The yellow sea is a Chinese lake. USN cannot freely operate within 1000km of Chinese coast. In a tense political situation, before actual hostilities, the SSBN's may deploy to anywhere on 70% of planet's surface, for example by trailing cargo ships.

maozedong said:

6 air nuclear power is the worst selection,after first nuclear attack, most airports are destoyed, and the long range bomber will be block at door of China,US sets lots of far range search radar around Taiwan, Japan,Korea, Australia and many Pacific ocean island, any bomber can not crosst Pacific ocean to US,also, it is too slow - from bomber preparation and take off, from China to US, how long will take? the bomber leaves China will be shoot down soon,as US strong air defence power.

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Not too mention China doesn't spend the money to build a heavy strategic bomber. There is no safe air corridor to approach USA. Air launch simply offers nothing over road mobility in China's case.

Re: China's DF-41

Violet Oboe said:

After all China has to avoid pouring too much money in SSBN/SLBM systems since China´s geostrategic location is simply not adequate for this (USA, India, France and even Russia have better access to oceanic waters) and USN will find ways to neutralize 4, 8 or even 12 SSBN premptively for decades to come. The whole SSBN thing is mere prestige and propaganda and PLAN admirals will find ways to get the budget for 4 or 6 units in the next decade but PLAN´s role in enhancing China´s startegic security will be limited indeed.

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The PRC has a pretty long coastline. Depending on the SLBM's range and its intended target, if a nuclear exchange were to occur, the SSBN may only need to fire its missiles from current position. The missiles will be on their way long before the other guy's subs can come and get you.