Chinese Aviation Industry production rates ...

Discussion in 'Air Force' started by Hendrik_2000, Apr 9, 2017.

  1. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Senior Member

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    In general I agree with your stand and they desperately need strategic lift and tanker

    But don't forget that XAC is also responsible for a lot more than Y 20 They are also producing urgently needed H8 series.

    With so many program going on simultaneously Y20, H8, Y8 , J20, J16, J10C, J11B money is getting tight
     
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  2. weig2000
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    weig2000 Junior Member

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    Yes, the slow production rate of China's military aircraft manufacturers has been patently clear, particularly when you compare it to that of the US aerospace companies (Boeing, LM), and also to that of China's ship-building yards.

    Not sure what exactly are the bottlenecks? Funding? Unlikely. Capacity and skilled labor? Possible, but doubtful after a few years. Supply chain constraints? Likely, but not sure.
     
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  3. Orthan
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    Orthan New Member

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    I think that manufacturing problems could be to blame. Even the USSR had manufacturing problems with the su-27 for many years.

    Its a lot of new technology at once for china´s aircraft industry. Aircraft industry is more complex than naval industry.
     
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  4. weig2000
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    weig2000 Junior Member

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    I wouldn't call modern naval industry necessarily lower tech industry (think 055, 052D), unless you're talking about hull-building only.

    That being said, it does pose more challenges to cram a lot of high-tech equipment into a much smaller aircraft body; the body and equipment also have to perform under much more extreme and challenging conditions. In addition, China's ship building industry has a lot more experiences in building civilian ships, what being the world's largest ship-building industry, while China's civilian aircraft industry is too small and inexperienced in building in scale.
     
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  5. Totoro
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    Totoro Senior Member

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    How is production rate too low?? It's been steadily increasing for years. Y20 is quite new still, one can't expect them to ramp it up from 2 per year to 12 per year within 12 months. C17 was adding 1-3 airframes per year, compared to year before. And there were years where they produced less than year before. It took them 7 years from first flight to production rate of 10 per year. So i'd say there's quite a lot of breathing room for Y20, it's not doing bad at all.

    And J10 production rate being too low?? It hit 40-something a year or two ago. Per year. How many other planes have such production rate nowadays? F35, and that's it. It was contracted for 90 planes in 2016, but that's for ALL customers altogether. US is buying 55 of those.

    US, overall, is buying maybe 70 manned combat planes per year, with various superhornet/growlers included.

    China can add to those 40ish j10 several j20 as well, as well as 30-ish or so J16/j15 per year. While there was a hiatus in j16 being delivered to plaaf, we don't really know if there was hiatus in production as well. And from previous years we know that SAC can produce 24 flankers per year alongside several other planes (j8fr back in the day. today that line has perhaps been replaced by additional flankers)

    Adding to that 8 or so h6 per year.

    So China is actually putting into service more combat planes than US for the last few years. US is trying to ramp up the f35 buy, but at the same time their hornet/growler buy will stop and it's not looking likely they'll get over 90 f35 per year due to budget issues. China may lag a bit behind that figure in a few years, but not by much. Given the discrepancy in funding, i'd say china can't be labeled as producing too few planes. It's really doing a very good job, all things considered.
     
  6. taxiya
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    taxiya Senior Member
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    I don't see any slow. China is not in a hurry to go to a war or arm race with anyone, nor is China going to expand to global deployment any time soon. Taking a steps in her own pace, build one and improve one is the best practice for a new system when she has time (relatively speaking).
     
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  7. jobjed
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    jobjed Senior Member

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    Ahh yes, but you forget... Deino speaks, breathes, and lives efficiency! Anything less than 100% is worthy of a frown. :p:p China might be at 90% efficiency but that translated into German means there's 10% waste! :mad: I, for one, fully support endeavouring to achieve those last few percentage points. Every bit counts!
     
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  8. TerraN_EmpirE
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    TerraN_EmpirE Tyrant King

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    it does take a few years to spin up production C17 was in production for 24 years with at the heart of production 16 units a year. But to get there the had years of 1-2 units a year. The Chinese may pride themselves for being the world's assembly line but even they have limits.
    F35 is still not in full rate production.
    mostly for domestic use, some US designed fighters are licensed for production abroad.
    Again F35 is still in LRIP full production will be huge as the US has around 2000 units and that would not consider off shore production.
    again LRIP, and the F/A 18 TX is comming up and I think we still have active F16 and F15 production for export.
    Especially when you compare to Russians production rates.
     
  9. Totoro
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    Totoro Senior Member

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    To be honest, when i talk about production rate, i talk about it for the domestic customer. So production rate for US, and production rate for China. Of course that any other buyer will increase the production rate. You pay for it, we build it, it's pretty simple. (it takes time to ramp it up, of course) Which is why F35 for all buyers combined will go over 160 planes per year soon. But that's also gonna be something like 15 billion dollars worth of orders per year. Buyers of chinese planes are much less numerous. If china produced 100 combat planes per year it'd be an order book for perhaps 4-5 billion dollars.

    PLAAF doesn't need so many planes per year, it would seem. Or if it does need them, it doesn't say, and with the money available, it certainly doesn't show. One would first need to ramp up training of new pilots if plaaf would add, say, 10 more regiments. It takes less time to contract and build a plane from scratch than to train a new pilot.

    It really remains to be seen how many F35 will US be buying at its peak. With funding it had up to now, previous plans of some 130 planes per year (all variants for US) are not really doable. But maybe under Trump the funding will increase. Impossible to know. IF more superhornets (TX or other kind) are ordered, that will be to the detriment of F35 production though. So far the official plan is still that no more growlers/superhornets will be ordered for US, the production has already ramped down quite a bit and last growlers/superhornets will be delivered to US within 2 or so years. IF no more are ordered.

    Also, when one talks about Chinese production, there are also parts of JF17 to consider, as well as various trainers. Chinese plane makers really do churn out A LOT of planes per year, and even when US starts buying more F35s they will be closer to US levels than to any other country in the world.
     
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  10. Bltizo
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    Bltizo Senior Member

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    Do we know that this is a new aircraft which is chronologically the 5th?

    I wouldn't say that production rate of aircraft is slow -- rather I would say the accuracy for us to get up to date pictures of new production aircraft is poor.
    I think CAC's production rate of about 40 J-10s a year is quite respectable, but we don't know how many Flankers SAC can produce per year because it's much harder to get photos from them. And soon it will be hard to get photos from CAC as well by the sounds of recent landscaping developments there.

    So the problem with Chinese military aviation watching is the inability to get up to date photos from factories and airfields.
    For example, for a few years in the past I remember we had barely any photos of Y-9 transports being produced at the factory, and then one day early last year we got a photo with something like fourteen Y-9s on the tarmac non-chalantly.


    The problem with aircraft production IMO is not necessarily that they produce too slowly but rather that the photos we get aren't up to date enough. With ships, it's easy to get up to date photos of when each ship is launched, fitting out, and in service. But with aircraft, it's much harder to get up to date photos of when new airframe is test flown, delivered and in service with its relevant unit, and sometimes it may take months or even years for us to confirm that a certain number of new aircraft even exist!
     
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