China's Westward One Belt One Road Strategy

james smith esq

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For China's global ambitions, 'Iran is at the center of everything'
Thomas Erdbrink, NYT

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An Iranian employee at the Pardis Kaghaz Pazh recycled paper factory in Neyshabur, Iran, one of eight factories established by Zuao Ru Lin, a Chinese entrepreneur from Beijing.
When Zuao Ru Lin, a Beijing entrepreneur, first heard about business opportunities in eastern Iran, he was skeptical. But then he bought a map and began to envision the region without any borders, as one enormous market.

"Many countries are close by, even Europe," Mr. Lin, 49, said while driving his white BMW over the highway connecting Tehran to the eastern Iranian city of Mashhad recently. "Iran is at the center of everything."

For millenniums, Iran has prospered as a trading hub linking East and West. Now, that role is set to expand in coming years as China unspools its "One Belt, One Road" project, which promises more than $1 trillion in infrastructure investment — bridges, rails, ports and energy — in over 60 countries across Europe, Asia and Africa. Iran, historically a crossroads, is strategically at the center of those plans.

Like pieces of a sprawling geopolitical puzzle, components of China's infrastructure network are being put in place. In eastern Iran, Chinese workers are busily modernizing one of the country's major rail routes, standardizing gauge sizes, improving the track bed and rebuilding bridges, with the ultimate goal of connecting Tehran to Turkmenistan and Afghanistan.

Much the same is happening in western Iran, where railroad crews are working to link the capital to Turkey and, eventually, to Europe. Other rail projects will connect Tehran and Mashhad with deepwater ports in the country's south.

Once dependent on Beijing during the years of international isolation imposed by the West for its nuclear program, Iran is now critical to China's ability to realize its grandiose ambitions. Other routes to Western markets are longer and lead through Russia, potentially a competitor of China.

"It is not as if their project is canceled if we don't participate," said Asghar Fakhrieh-Kashan, the Iranian deputy minister of roads and urban development. "But if they want to save time and money, they will choose the shortest route."

He added with a smile: "There are also political advantages to Iran, compared to Russia. They are highly interested in working with us."

Others worry that with the large-scale Chinese investment and China's growing presence in the Iranian economy, Tehran will become more dependent than ever on China, already its biggest trading partner.

China is also an important market for Iranian oil, and because of remaining unilateral American sanctions that intimidate global banks, it is the only source of the large amounts of capital Iran needs to finance critical infrastructure projects. But that, apparently, is a risk the leadership is prepared to take.

"China is dominating Iran," said Mehdi Taghavi, an economics professor at Allameh Tabataba'i University in Tehran, adding that the "Iranian authorities do not see any drawbacks to being dependent on China. Together, we are moving ahead."

It is not just roads and rail lines that Iran is getting from China. Iran is also becoming an increasingly popular destination for Chinese entrepreneurs like Mr. Lin. With a few words of Persian, as well as low-interest loans and tax breaks from the Chinese and Iranian governments, he has built a small empire since moving to Iran in 2002. His eight factories make a wide variety of goods that find markets in Iran and in neighboring countries.

"You can say that I was even more visionary than some of our politicians," Mr. Lin said with a laugh. Since 2013, when the "One Belt, One Road" plan was started, he has had dozens of visitors from China and multiple meetings with the Chinese ambassador in Tehran. "I was a pioneer, and they want to hear my experiences," he said.

Mr. Lin established his factories along what will be a key part of the trade route — a 575-mile electrified rail line linking Tehran and Mashhad, financed with a $1.6 billion loan from China. When completed and attached to the wider network, the new line will enable Mr. Lin to export his goods as far as northern Europe, Poland and Russia, at much less cost than today.

"I am expecting a 50 percent increase in revenue," Mr. Lin said. He lit another cigarette. "Of course, Iran's economy will also grow. China will expand. Its power will grow."

He played Chinese pop music in his car and tapped his fingers on the wheel. "Life is good in Iran," he said. "The future is good."

Iranians who spotted Mr. Lin driving between his factories waved and smiled. Having mastered a few basic phrases in Persian over the years, he said "hi" and "goodbye" to some of his 2,000 employees. Iranians are hard workers, he said, but he does not like their food. "We grow our own vegetables and eat Chinese food," he said. "Just like home."

Even when the boss was out of earshot, workers in his factories said that they were very happy with the Chinese. "They pay every month on time and only hire people instead of fire," Amir Dalilian, a guard, said. "If more will come, our economy will flourish."

When finished, the proposed rail link will stretch nearly 2,000 miles, from Urumqi, the capital of China's western region of Xinjiang, to Tehran. If all goes according to plan, it will connect Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, China's state-owned paper, China Daily, wrote. Track sizes need to be adjusted and new connections made, as well as upgrades to the newest trains.

In a 2016 test, China and Iran drove a train from the port of Shanghai in eastern China to Tehran in just 12 days, a journey that takes 30 days by sea. In Iran, they used the existing track between Tehran and Mashhad, powered by a slower diesel-powered train. When the new line is opened in 2021, it is expected to accommodate electric trains at speeds up to 125 miles an hour.

Mr. Fakhrieh-Kashan, an English speaker who oversees negotiation of most of the larger international state business deals, said the Chinese initiative would do much more than just provide a channel for transporting goods. "Think infrastructure, city planning, cultural exchanges, commercial agreements, investments and tourism," he said. "You can pick any project, they are all under this umbrella."

Business ties between Iran and China have been growing since the United States and its European allies at the time started pressuring Iran over its nuclear program around 2007. China remains the largest buyer of Iranian crude, even after Western sanctions were lifted in 2016, allowing Iran to again sell oil in European markets.

Chinese state companies are active all over the country, building highways, digging mines and making steel. Tehran's shops are flooded with Chinese products and its streets clogged with Chinese cars.

Iran's leaders hope that the country's participation in the plan will enable them to piggyback on China's large economic ambitions.

"The Chinese plan is designed in such a way that it will establish Chinese hegemony across half of the world," Mr. Fakhrieh-Kashan said. "While Iran will put its own interests first, we are creating corridors at the requests of the Chinese. It will give us huge access to new markets."
 

timepass

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India plan for bypass Pak Afghan Transit Trade...


India has also built a 218-km road link connecting Delaram with Zaranj in Afghanistan, which is adjacent to Iran's border.

The Delaram–Zaranj Highway, also known as Route 606, is a 218 km long two-lane road in Afghanistan, connecting Zaranj in Nimruz Province, near the Iranian border, with Delaram in neighbouring Farah Province.

It connects the Afghan–Iranian border with the Kandahar–Herat Highway in Delaram, which provides connectivity to other major Afghan cities . Route 606 reduces travel time between Delaram and Zaranj from the earlier 12–14 hours to just 2 hours.

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20526248_1921892291412629_2292119723323648095_n.jpg
 

delft

Brigadier
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India plan for bypass Pak Afghan Transit Trade...


India has also built a 218-km road link connecting Delaram with Zaranj in Afghanistan, which is adjacent to Iran's border.

The Delaram–Zaranj Highway, also known as Route 606, is a 218 km long two-lane road in Afghanistan, connecting Zaranj in Nimruz Province, near the Iranian border, with Delaram in neighbouring Farah Province.

It connects the Afghan–Iranian border with the Kandahar–Herat Highway in Delaram, which provides connectivity to other major Afghan cities . Route 606 reduces travel time between Delaram and Zaranj from the earlier 12–14 hours to just 2 hours.

20525530_1921892251412633_8514998071390323078_n.jpg


20526248_1921892291412629_2292119723323648095_n.jpg
The countries most likely to profit from Chabahar and the road to Afghanistan are, besides Iran and Afghanistan, Pakistan and China.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Steve bannon vows to destroy China one road, one belt initiative. Trump increased troops in afghan and support of India to go against China reflective of Bannon policy even thought he's out.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Sorry but the real reason for the US in Afghanistan is because the US is afraid the Taliban will eventually takeover Pakistan and thus they would have nukes. If Bannon had influence, why did he get kicked out of the White House? Yeah I'm sure Bannon in his short time in the limelight with his Merica 1st isolationists policies was able to make lotsa friends in other countries that it would take to undermine OBOR. Maybe Bannon will send his snowflake alt-right wusses that cry at being publicly exposed into these countries to intimidate them from joining OBOR? And what does undermining OBOR do? The US can't even get their own allies on the same page against China.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Steve bannon vows to destroy China one road, one belt initiative. Trump increased troops in afghan and support of India to go against China reflective of Bannon policy even thought he's out.
Russia is far more dangerous than China. I don't know why the likes of him hates China so much when it is America's biggest trade partner. The so called trade gap has to do with America itself and the way it carries it's domestic and foreign policies as well as spending. Using China as a scapegoat is so lame.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russia is far more dangerous than China. I don't know why the likes of him hates China so much when it is America's biggest trade partner. The so called trade gap has to do with America itself and the way it carries it's domestic and foreign policies as well as spending. Using China as a scapegoat is so lame.

That is debatable.

Bannon has correctly identified that in the long-run, China can be many times larger than the USA from both a military and economic perspective. (Remember that China has a population 9x larger than Russia, and that the average Chinese person is now almost "richer" than the average Russian)

And Bannon fervently believes that the USA must always be number 1 and that the USA still has the capacity to stop China, but has to do so now.

But at this point, China is already the world's largest economy in terms of actual output, and likely to become the largest in exchange rate terms in the next 5-10years. It is also the world's largest trading nation and sits at the centre of Asian trade flows. Furthermore, Boston Consulting Group also reports that China spent more on commercially-focused R&D than the USA, back in 2014.

So Bannon is an old bitter man who doesn't recognise that the USA has no economic means to stop China's trajectory. It is really up to China whether China succeeds or not.

And thankfully, the old white-supremist men who remember the Cold War victory are already a minority and will steadily disappear. And they are being replaced by a more multi-ethnic population which has been formed by the Middle East wars without end, and who have more positive views of China.
 
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Equation

Lieutenant General
That is debatable.

Bannon has correctly identified that in the long-run, China can be many times larger than the USA from both a military and economic perspective. (Remember that China has a population 9x larger than Russia, and that the average Chinese person is now almost "richer" than the average Russian)

And Bannon fervently believes that the USA must always be number 1 and that the USA still has the capacity to stop China, but has to do so now.

But at this point, China is already the world's largest economy in terms of actual output, and likely to become the largest in exchange rate terms in the next 5-10years. It is also the world's largest trading nation and sits at the centre of Asian trade flows. Furthermore, Boston Consulting Group also reports that China spent more on commercially-focused R&D than the USA, back in 2014.

So Bannon is an old bitter man who doesn't recognise that the USA has no economic means to stop China's trajectory. It is really up to China whether China succeeds or not.

And thankfully, the old white-supremist men who remember the Cold War victory are already a minority and will steadily disappear. And they are being replaced by a more multi-ethnic population which has been formed by the Middle East wars without end, and who have more positive views of China.
Yeah but those old Cold War era white nationalist are getting more violence in their rhetoric. How stupid can they be thinking that the entire world revolves around them?
 

timepass

Brigadier
Sorry but the real reason for the US in Afghanistan is because the US is afraid the Taliban will eventually takeover Pakistan and thus they would have nukes.

I hate to say that but your statement is based purely on biased media reporting & US govt policy, while ground reality is entirely different. Suggests, its imperative to have an in depth knowledge prior you based your statement on that.


Trump increased troops in afghan and support of India to go against China reflective of Bannon policy even thought he's out.

Additional few thousand wont help the cause while there are already more than 100 thousand troops are there for more than 16 years & even they cant fully secure Kabul.

At current, more than 65% of Afghanistan is in either under the control of War lords/Tribesmen or Taliban. Us backed govt is only effective in Kabul & some more cities.

While for current Trump policy, I would say the below only.

I'm gonna scapegoat you!

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Until US will not bring all factions of Afghan's to table for peaceful end, US will continue to suffer in Afghanistan.
 
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