China's Westward One Belt One Road Strategy

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by tidalwave, Sep 29, 2016.

  1. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Junior Member
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    The Malacca Strait Choke Point and or Potential Sea Mines Blockade by USN around China's Sea Port
    http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2014-02/deterring-dragon-under-sea

    leads China's One Belt One Road Strategy. The Survival of Nation Depend on such.

    But nothing is easy. Outside forces are funding Uyghurs militants to sabotage China's One Belt One Road Strategy as evidents by recent Chinese Krygstan embassy bombing.

    Bascially, someone wants to continuously hold China vulnerable. It won't allow China secure energy and trade path.

    Looks like the effort is to develope those Uyghurs militants get the training at Syria and then go back to do sabotage work against China's One Belt One Road.

    http://atimes.com/2016/09/risky-business-is-us-supporting-anti-chinese-militants-in-syria/

    Will China develope effective west ward energy and trade route that can be uninterrupted even at war time?
     
    #1 tidalwave, Sep 29, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2016
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  2. abc123
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    abc123 New Member
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    Hendrik 2000

    About Karakorum Highway, do you remember Attabad Lake and the way it formed?

    Sorry if I'm not very confident that such road can really be relied on and expanded into a proper expressway ( a must be if you want it to become a major way of transit between China and Middle East ). Not to mention a railway and a pipeline.
     
  3. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Senior Member

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    formation?

    But the road is recently upgraded to all weather road meaning it can be traveled in winter time. What they did is having maintenance station in regular interval that can house snowplow


    So I figure they can possibly widen the road a bit and use it for oil pipe line. And have the line heat traced by electrical or steam heat trace. Not sure about railway but the cost will be prohibitive

    But why the need for oil line since. Not that Xinjiang is any need for oil. Xinjiang is the center of oil industry in China where china get most of their oil

    Pakistan would like to have oil line
    https://jamestown.org/program/the-karakoram-corridor-chinas-transportation-network-in-pakistan/
     
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  4. abc123
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    abc123 New Member
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    Because of 6 millions of barrels of oil that China imports each day.
     
  5. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Senior Member

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    But China has built all kind of pipeline to Central Asian country like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
    The extend of China development aid is breathtaking larger than even the famous Marshall plan
    Click this link it has video file. I can't find the Youtube equivalent
    http://english.cntv.cn/2016/10/27/VIDEl94utgi3IbXj0yywkmGh161027.shtml
     
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  6. taxiya
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    taxiya Senior Member
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    I also heard of the possible oil pipeline along that route. But my guess is that it is NOT meant for China to import as China has multiple lines from central Asia. The purpose WAS for Pakistan's security of fuel supply from China (sourced from central Asia). It is to by pass Afghanistan.

    Now, if (and it is becoming real) Pakistan and Iran improve their relationship, Pakistan can get oil and gas directly from Iran more economically. And two recent developments support that, Iran expressed interest in joining CPEC few weeks ago, and Iran has built the Iranian section of the Pak-Iran pipe line.

    So, I don't think the pipe line along Karakorum highway is that urgent or necessary anymore.
     
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  7. taxiya
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    taxiya Senior Member
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    I know you are asking Hendrik. But allow me to provide some thought.

    In my opinion, Karakorum Highway was not a project out of economical necessity. It was a project started in the 1970s. It was a pure geo-strategic project to provide a vital link between China and Pakistan for you know security and military reasons. So one has to drop the thinking of economical feasibility when talking about it and to a greater extent even the current linking project.

    Yes, today there are more and more economical reasons in CPEC, but the fundamental thinking has never changed. It serves as the blood-line between China and Pakistan. So it is a must-have, must-big and must-fast. Consider why China fight for Aksai Chin. It is the only land where a road connects Xinjiang and Tibet, if it is not because of avoiding to provoke India, a railroad would have been built. Karakorum Highway is just that.

    No, it is not a must to transit between China and Middle East although it does serve that purpose. The main task to Middle East is through the central Asian countries.

    I don't think a railway along that route to Pakistan is in question, it has been almost decided as the preliminary works have been conducted. The issue of it is not much on the Chinese shoulder because the Chinese section is a easy job. It is more of a challenge to Pakistan Railway Co. as their section is much more difficult to construct.

    The pipeline as I said in a separate post, may or may not be necessary depending of the improvement of Pak-Iranian relationship. It may still be built as a backup plan from geo-strategy perspective, and it is not much of a challenge technically if the railroad can stand (avoid) the mountain and earthquake.
     
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  8. abc123
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    abc123 New Member
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    Well, if it's so easy and feasible, why didn't they built it allready?

    I mean, strategic importance of that corridor is clear.
     
  9. taxiya
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    taxiya Senior Member
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    No, I never said it was easy and feasible in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s or early 2000s. I said it is not much problem today in late 2010s.

    you can ask the same question why China has not built a 10,000 tone nuclear powered EMALS equipped super duper aircraft carrier already, or even decades ago. Or J-20 in the 1990s.

    One has to walk the first step of a long journey. China did not have the economy capacity 10 years ago. China only finished building railway to Lhasa less than 10 years ago, that railway is in the same league to Karakorum route in terms of technical difficulties, to name a few reasons for you.
     
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  10. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Senior Member

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    If you read the western press, the narrative was nobody like China in Africa because they are slave driver and they disregard environment , labor law and their product are so lousy it broke down the next day.But but the reality is completely different
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/03/africa/what-africans-really-think-of-china/index.html?ref=yfp

    (CNN)Increasing Chinese investment in everything from small food enterprises to massive railway projects across Africa has drawn criticism and warnings of a future dependency on Asia's superpower.

    But what do Africans themselves think about Chinese investors? Turns out, they love them.
    According to a recent report by Afrobarometer, almost two-thirds (63%) of Africans say China's influence is somewhat positive or very positive, while only 15% see it as somewhat or very negative.

    "There is a negative narrative of China in Africa," says Anyway Chingwete, co-author of the study and project manager at Afrobarometer and the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation in Cape Town, South Africa.
    "But I believe ordinary citizens have a positive sentiment because of the contribution China has made to Africa."
    The attitudes vary from country to country, with people in Mali (92%), Niger (84%), and Liberia (81%) being particularly glad to have them around.
    "This shows that African citizens are welcoming China's involvement," Chingwete adds.
    Show me the money

    It appears it's not the Chinese culture or language Africans like best. It's the potential financial investment China brings.
    When asked which factors contributed most to China's positive image, it was investment in infrastructure that came out on top.

    China invests more in Africa than any other country, with Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Angola among the biggest recipients of Chinese funds.
    Infrastructure development, for example highways and railways, is the main area of business for the Chinese in Africa, Chingwete says. They also invest in smaller enterprises and food outlets, according to the report.
    Africans also like the Chinese for bringing affordable cars and mobile phones to the continent, says lead author Mogopodi Lekorwe, a professor of Politics at the University of Botswana.
    "They used to be very expensive, but because these are now flooding the market, the prices have dropped.
    "People can now pick and choose among things that they didn't have access to in the past," he adds.
    upload_2016-11-4_9-52-17.gif
    But the Chinese are not the only ones looking to do business with African countries. Colonial powers still have an influence, particularly in Francophone countries, Lekorwe says.
    However, this influence appears to be waning in some countries, says Chingwete.
    "Of the largest players in Africa, China and the U.S. are the main countries."
    United States versus China in the race for Africa
    Some African countries now prefer the Chinese development model to that of the US and former European colonial powers, the study revealed.
    When asked which country would be the best model for the future development of their country, 24% of Africans picked China.

    However, across all countries surveyed, the US still came out on top, with nearly a third (30%) of all respondents preferring it.
    About one in 10 respondents prefer their former colonial power (13%) or South Africa (11%).
    At a closer look, this varies greatly from country to country. Out of the 36 countries surveyed, people from 10 countries were particularly keen on the Chinese development model, with Cameroon, Sudan and Mozambique being the top three.
    On the flipside, Liberia, Cape Verde, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa and Morocco all put the American model above the Chinese.

    Some former French colonies said they preferred the French model.
    "In Tunisia, Benin, Mauritius and Burkina Faso, for example, there is still some level of influence from France which they find positive, and so they choose France's development model," Chingwete says.
    South Africa scored particularly high in neighboring countries such as Lesotho, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi.
    Poor quality products?
    It's not all rosy, however. Negative opinions of China are present among Africans too, with some saying that Chinese products weren't always of the highest quality.
    They are also afraid of losing jobs to the Chinese, and some say they can't compete with the Chinese work ethic, Lekorwe says.
    "The Chinese are available 24 hours to do work, whereas a local will say: 'Look, I have a family here.'"
    "That's some of the things that people have been complaining about, but they certainly do have a positive image overall."
    [​IMG]
    Kenya's new $13bn railway was funded by China.
    China's global image
    Globally, the attitude towards China is somewhat positive, according to a 2014 study by Pew Global.
    Across the 43 nations surveyed by Pew, a median of 49% expressed a favorable view of China, compared to 32% thinking of them unfavorably.
    However, China's overall image in Europe and the U.S. was mostly negative. Only 35% of Americans had a positive view of China, whereas 55% were negative.
    A future China - Africa superpower?

    Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has dinner with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in April 2016.
    The U.S. and China are competing fiercely over African business, says Lekorwe.
    "I think the Chinese do everything they possibly can to become number one," he says.
    "They want to become the number one superpower."
    However, an increased Chinese influence over Africa may cause trouble in the future, and perhaps stifle the development of democracy, Lekorwe says.
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