China's strategy in Korean peninsula

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Just want to share with everybody the
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. Perfect expression of China's standing point towards all lobbying of China to press NK more.

Here I quote,
双暂停”倡议是当前形势下最为合情合理、公平公正和现实可行的一个方案
Both sides suspending escalation is the most reasonable, fair and feasible approach
I emphasize BOTH. China is not going to squeeze anybody on behalf of anybody. Save the breath.

问:美军参联会主席邓福德称中方应加大对朝鲜施压。中方对此有何评论?
....忽悠
没用,施压没用,威胁更没用。
Q: General Dunford urged China to press NK more. What is your comment?
Answer:....Fooling is useless, Pressing (China) is useless, Threatening (China) is useless.
Anybody who watches Chinese TV will know what the word 忽悠 means. It means fooling someone, bullshitting someone, deceiving someone. That is how the Chinese leadership sees all the lobbying China to help US pressing NK, to hand over NK to SK, to help SK to unify NK.

China is not Soviet Union, Chinese Communist Party is not Soviet Communist, China put "Chinese Gorbachev" into house arrest. Wishing China to act like USSR (allowing eastern European communist states to collapse, handing over East Germany to West Germany etc.) is a day dream.
 
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delft

Brigadier
Not going to happen. As much as news like to show how divided Americans are being republican or democrats, they are all still Americans first. The population is more evenly split in every state between the parties than ever before.

As much as race plays into politics, its not like the differences you find in places like Syria or Iraq with people that hated either other for centuries.
I'm not expecting a civil war in US, just remark that some writers in mainstream papers think differently.

As for the hate among the people of Iraq and Syria there was little opportunity for that while the countries were ruled by the Ottoman empire or by the British and French colonial authorities although these used civil servants recruited local minorities - using divide and rule. Those minorities manned many of the top positions after the departure of the British and French rulers but they ran secular states with little discrimination against the majority or against other minorities. The real misery started with the US exclusion of secular parties in Iraq and with the introduction of Sunni mercenaries by the sponsors of the "civil war" in Syria.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
I think that Kim has toned down the rhetoric, because he has had the sort of result he was looking to achieve.
I always tell people that comments from the DPRK are aimed at the leaders and the populace of the ROK first and foremost and that effects on third parties are secondary considerations.

President Moon, has now said that nobody has the right to start military action against the North, without his express permission. In a part of the world, where politics expects all people on one side to slavishly reiterate the same line and word formats, this is very much a divide between his Government and major allies.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
By threatening Guam, Kim deftly shifted the debate in the US from what to do to deprive him of his missile capability to what to do to get him to not use his missile capability.

If the debate is about something you can't afford to give up, in Kim's case his nuclear weapons and ICBMs, then shift the debate to something that doesn't matter to you, in Kim;s case Guam. This way you can be seen backing down and compromising when in fact you give away nothing.

Trump made the United States look so stupid the world must be wonder whether everyone with any influence on American foreign policy were just born yesterday.
 
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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
All the grand standing rhetoric aside, both Trump and Kim are bluffing. What is likely to happen or happening is they are going to talk behind the door. China and Russia have said no to a war, SK has said no, some British parliamentarians have just sent a letter to Teresa May to urge Trump to deescalate, Angela Merker has said no, Kim has "postponed" the launch at Guam. Everyone is looking at Trump's next move, the upcoming military drill in SK.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
By threatening Guam, Kim deftly shifted the debate in the US from what to do to deprive him of his missile capability to what to do to get him to not use his missile capability.

If the debate is about something you can't afford to give up, in Kim's case his nuclear weapons and ICBMs, then shift the debate to something that doesn't matter to you, in Kim;s case Guam. This way you can be seen backing down and compromising when in fact you give away nothing.

Trump made the United States look so stupid the world must be wonder whether everyone with any influence on American foreign policy were just born yesterday.
I also noticed that. Apparently, Kim has moved the bar so far in his favor that he was praised for wisdom and reason when he decided not to fire missiles at Guam and start WWIII LOL. That's like getting praised at Macy's just for not stealing their merchandise or burning their store down!
 
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delft

Brigadier
I think that Kim has toned down the rhetoric, because he has had the sort of result he was looking to achieve.
I always tell people that comments from the DPRK are aimed at the leaders and the populace of the ROK first and foremost and that effects on third parties are secondary considerations.

President Moon, has now said that nobody has the right to start military action against the North, without his express permission. In a part of the world, where politics expects all people on one side to slavishly reiterate the same line and word formats, this is very much a divide between his Government and major allies.
If it enables Moon to call off the US-RK military exercise of later this month Kim would have won big. I hope but do not yet expect.
 
If it enables Moon to call off the US-RK military exercise of later this month Kim would have won big. I hope but do not yet expect.
I happened to notice (I think the title does it, just in case here's the link which is AirForceMag:
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it's dated
8/18/2017)
Dunford: Exercises With South Korea Will Continue
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Here is a good article about the Korean peninsula issue by one of my friend from the University of Houston Professor Robert Buzzanco.

The United States and North Korea exchanged warring rhetoric Monday with Washington preparing military exercises and Pyongyang threatened to fire missiles off the coast of Guam, according to the Guardian.

The threats followed a week that saw President Donald Trump vowing to rain “fire and fury” if the communist country continued to provoke the United States, but it’s unlikely that North Korea will launch the first strike, said University of Houston professor Robert Buzzanco.


“I mean, to be straight, what we’re dealing with here is North Korean nuclear testing,” Buzzanco said. “Kim Jong-un has said, ‘I will never use nuclear weapons unless attacked.’”

A pre-emptive strike by the U.S., he said, would be condemned by the international community and would endanger its close ally, South Korea.


“There would be a retaliation if possible,” Buzzanco said. “The short answer: South Korea would be hit. If you want to put a big bull’s eye on your ally, then you attack North Korea, because then South Korea’s gone as well.”

Even if tensions do continue to rise, people in Houston do not have anything to worry about, as North Korea doesn’t have the capability to strike even the West Coast, he said.

“They pose no threat whatever to the United States,” Buzzanco said. “If anybody would be afraid, it would be South Korea, because they share a border.”

The North Korean military has made progress in their missile testing, however, which is concerning for the U.S., said Zachary Zwald, a UH political science professor who researches international security and nuclear weapons.

Some of the progress has been in the type of fuel they use in medium-range missiles, he said. They previously use liquid-fueled rockets, which required them to put the missiles on launch pads and bring a truck to fuel them.

This was detectable by U.S. satellite signal intelligence, Zwald said.

Recently, the North Korean military advanced to solid-fueled missiles, which give little warning beforehand, he said.

The development of their intercontinental ballistic missiles, which could theoretically reach the U.S. by going over the Arctic, is unclear, he said.

ICBM’s go up into space, which takes about 40 minutes, then fall back down, Zwald said.

Based on their last two ICBM tests, U.S. intelligence officials have concluded that North Korea’s ICMB’s can enter the atmosphere, but it’s unlikely that they can survive re-entry.

“A ballistic missile goes to some fixed point in space, then falls back down into the atmosphere,” Zwald said. “it’s really violent re-entering the atmosphere. It’s one technological hurdle to get the missile into that high point of space, and it’s a whole different technological hurdle to make it where it can withstand re-entry through the atmosphere and hit its target.”

The situation is not beyond a diplomatic reproach, Buzzanco said.

“There’s sanctions, there’s aid, there’s China,” he said. “There are other countries in the region that have a far greater stake geographically, politically and economically with North Korea than the United States does.”

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