China's strategy in Korean peninsula

sanblvd

Junior Member
Registered Member
Now we get to the crux of the argument.

Who is more afraid of a land war on the Korean peninsula, and who will back down first if there is a crisis?

Is it China or the USA?

Because a miscalculation on who has the greater resolve will result in events escalating.

Remember that the neocons in the US may very well be thinking that now is the time to fight China, before it is too late to contemplate.

In comparison, the moderates may argue that the US has to accept that NK has ICBMs.

0 doubt USA would back down first.

US didn't win all wars it fought last 20 years against far weaker enemies, what make them think they want would have better luck with China?

most importantly, US is really not in a mood for war right now, it took them 30 years to recover from Vietnam, it will take them another 30 years to recover from Iraq and Afghanistan... which by my estimate would be 2030-2040, that is IF US don't lose any more wars in the middle. By then if nothing goes wrong China would have 1.5 to 2x the size of US economy.

But I still think its somewhat in China's interest to help US to squeeze fat Kim, a nuclear Kim is not in the best inters of China.
 

sanblvd

Junior Member
Registered Member
In return for the removal of US forces from SK?

LOL, no way US will agree to this voluntarily, the only way for US to get out of SK is for SK to force them like what Philippine did in the 90s, but as long as SK and NK is not unified that will never happen.

Another possibility is for US to have a USSR style economic collapse, that it cannot sustain its vast overseas military base, this is also not likely to happen.
 

delft

Brigadier
LOL, no way US will agree to this voluntarily, the only way for US to get out of SK is for SK to force them like what Philippine did in the 90s, but as long as SK and NK is not unified that will never happen.

Another possibility is for US to have a USSR style economic collapse, that it cannot sustain its vast overseas military base, this is also not likely to happen.
To my amazement I saw over the last several weeks in main stream papers speculation about a possible civil war in US. There has always been such speculation, I remember reading about it browsing in the magazine Guns and Ammo some forty years ago, but this was in main stream newspapers.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
To my amazement I saw over the last several weeks in main stream papers speculation about a possible civil war in US. There has always been such speculation, I remember reading about it browsing in the magazine Guns and Ammo some forty years ago, but this was in main stream newspapers.
Not going to happen. As much as news like to show how divided Americans are being republican or democrats, they are all still Americans first. The population is more evenly split in every state between the parties than ever before.

As much as race plays into politics, its not like the differences you find in places like Syria or Iraq with people that hated either other for centuries.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
China can strike another kind of bargain with the US, China will give North Korea to South Korea in return the US will permanently sever all ties with Taiwan.
 

sanblvd

Junior Member
Registered Member
To my amazement I saw over the last several weeks in main stream papers speculation about a possible civil war in US. There has always been such speculation, I remember reading about it browsing in the magazine Guns and Ammo some forty years ago, but this was in main stream newspapers.

I live there, and yes its pretty bad right now, out of my 20 years in this country I never see it this divided, I think we are closer to civil war, but still very far from it. Lets say if Civil war is 100, before Trump it was like 5, now we are at 15.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
China can strike another kind of bargain with the US, China will give North Korea to South Korea in return the US will permanently sever all ties with Taiwan.
What kind of trade is that? Taiwan is China's territory. That's like me surrendering to someone the contract we were fighting over and in return, he promises to never try to steal my car LOL. Besides, deals with democracies must be short-term; there is no such thing as a permanent promise from a country that changes political parties every 4-8 years.

China has the advantage over Korea and the advantage over Taiwan, and that advantage grows by the day. Makes no sense to trade one for another when both are slipping into your hands naturally. Only patience is needed... patience and continued striving for excellence and growth.
 
Last edited:
Tuesday at 7:59 AM
now I read
US Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman arrives in Beijing after Seoul visit
2017-08-15 12:36 GMT+8
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and
Xi calls for enhanced China-U.S. military ties
Xinhua| 2017-08-17 22:34:55
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Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday said he expects military relations would become a major stabilizing factor in Sino-U.S. ties.

Xi was meeting with Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, the first senior military official to visit China since U.S. President Donald Trump took office.

Xi, also chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), said although the visit was brief, it was wide-ranging, showing how relations between the two armed forces have made substantial steps forward.

He applauded the new progress made in relations between the two armed forces, such as enhanced dialogue at all levels and improved military confidence-building mechanisms as well as deepened cooperation.

During Dunford's visit, the two militaries signed the framework to build a new communication mechanism for their joint staff departments, which Xi said will play a positive role in boosting bilateral ties.

He expected that the two armed forces could make good use of existing cooperation mechanisms and platforms to push forward their relations.

China is ready to make joint efforts with the U.S. to show mutual respect, focus on cooperation and accumulate more fruitful results to benefit people of the two countries, said Xi.

As major influential countries in the region and the world as well as world's top two economies, China and the United States shoulder important responsibility to safeguard world peace and stability and to promote global development and prosperity, he said.

The general direction of Sino-U.S. relations not only concerns the fundamental interests of the two nations and their people, but also profoundly affects the overall international strategic situation, he said.

"President Trump and I have attached great importance to Sino-U.S. relations and are willing to actively promote the continuous development of bilateral ties," he said.

Xi noted that a prosperous United States will benefit China, while a growing China is also in the interests of the United States.

Despite some ups and downs in the development of bilateral relations, a rainbow comes after wind and rain, he said.

He hoped that the two sides could show sincerity and good-will to each other, maintain close communications, properly handle disputes, and work together on building a better future.

Dunford conveyed the greetings of President Trump to Xi, saying Trump expects to visit China this year.

He said under the strong leadership of the two heads of state, bilateral military relations have made positive progress and the two armed forces are in a mature relationship.

He said the U.S. is committed to conducting sincere and professional dialogue with China in the military realm.

Dunford hoped that the two sides could expand exchanges and cooperation, improve risk control and increase mutual trust to jointly promote the stable development of bilateral military ties.

Xi asked Dunford to convey his greetings to President Trump and welcomd Trump to visit China this year.

During his visit, Dunford also met with Fang Fenghui, chief of the CMC Joint Staff Department; Fan Changlong, CMC vice chairman; and Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi.
 
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