I don't think SK will choose this path, but If SK choose to do so, it won't be limited to a BMD program. It will become a mini arm race directly against NK, but also alarms Japan to join in because Japan will not trust a militarily independent SK from US. Japan's move will then trigger China and Russia to step up. It is a chain reaction that SK will loose even more than not to do so.
But on the evil side of the thought, pulling more money from maintaining SK's tech advancement into spiraling military cost does serve China well. When there is no Samsung (or the likes) around, SK will be more cooperative or less of a concern to China.
hmm, sounds like we are in a "chicken vs. egg" situation. If SK was independent, SK would not let the crisis escalate to today's situation, but to do that, it need the capability and spending of something like THAAD which it did not have or more likely NOT willing to pay the cost.
To have that kind of capability and bear the cost, SK would have been acting like NK (military first). NK is poor because it is trying to maintain its independence from China and Russia (USSR), it is their price to pay. SK would have to pay the same price if it choose to do without any super-power (US or China). SK simply chose to be rich. It can not have both.
At the time the US president was Commander-in-Chief of the SK armed forces. How could SK do anything to decrease US influence in its politics? Any effort to do so would lead to removal of the SK president. Matters are changing now because China is now vastly more powerful - economically as well as militarily - and that let already to the SK president becoming C-in-C of the SK armed forces but only until war breaks out which means that the SK forces are trained to fight under US command. It is now in the interest of people living in Continental US that no war will break out in Korea in a way that was no true when Libya was destroyed.I would disagree that SK building its own missile defence is just treating the sympton rather than the cause.
If SK is more secure militarily through its own means, then it can be much more independent and not have to depend on the USA and follow whatever Bush Jr or Trump wants to do.
But I think what we see is the "shrimp among whales" mentality coming through. Eg. SK has much larger neighbours so struggles to be independent because there was always an alignment with a larger power.
It's bad in that SK struggles to define an independent mindset.
But good from the point of view that SK is more likely to follow China, if China is powerful enough.
An arms race wouldn't contribute to the necessary political solution.I don't think SK will choose this path, but If SK choose to do so, it won't be limited to a BMD program. It will become a mini arm race directly against NK, but also alarms Japan to join in because Japan will not trust a militarily independent SK from US. Japan's move will then trigger China and Russia to step up. It is a chain reaction that SK will loose even more than not to do so.
At the time the US president was Commander-in-Chief of the SK armed forces. How could SK do anything to decrease US influence in its politics? Any effort to do so would lead to removal of the SK president. Matters are changing now because China is now vastly more powerful - economically as well as militarily - and that let already to the SK president becoming C-in-C of the SK armed forces but only until war breaks out which means that the SK forces are trained to fight under US command. It is now in the interest of people living in Continental US that no war will break out in Korea in a way that was no true when Libya was destroyed.
An arms race wouldn't contribute to the necessary political solution.
What would be the purpose? SK is already more heavily armed than the North and would not be allowed to conquer the North. The purpose must be the reunification by peaceful means but that has been unacceptable to US because it would entail the removal of US forces from Korea.It's not an arms race.
North Korea is already maxed out in terms of military spending.
But it should be sustainable for South Korea to double military spending to Israeli levels, if required.
SK can not be compared with Israel. Israel receives large sum of aid from US, SK does not. Israel is unique.Note that both SK and Israel are spending a similar amount of technology R&D (4.3% of GDP)
So SK doubling military spending to Israeli levels should be doable.
And an independent SK should lean towards China, and which would cause Japan to panic and militarise anyway. Russia wouldn't care at all
What would be the purpose? SK is already more heavily armed than the North and would not be allowed to conquer the North. The purpose must be the reunification by peaceful means but that has been unacceptable to US because it would entail the removal of US forces from Korea.
SK can not be compared with Israel. Israel receives large sum of aid from US, SK does not. Israel is unique.
China does not want Japan to panic, at least not adding an excuse to militarize. Russia would surely care, but due to the not so good economy may not be able to do much.