China's strategy in Korean peninsula

AndrewS said:

I think SK and the USA will assume China will intervene in NK even if no treaty is in place.

After all, that is what happened in the last Korean War. And we see that today with Russia and all the colour revolutions that previously happened in Ukraine.

As for not renewing the treaty, I think it will be a bargaining chip for China, as both NK and SK/US will be competing against each other for China's favour in this regard.

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plawolf said:

I really wouldn't put too much stock in such treaties in terms of international recognition. After all, would China recognise any treaty signed just between SK and the US?

The US, SK and Japan will either ignore the treaty or claim it is illegitimate. The biggest determinates on what they will do and say will be what is in their own interests and how much relative power they have to come push for what they want.

The biggest impact signing such a treaty are internally aimed. With such a treaty in place, China is bound to come to NK's aid if prerequisites of the treaty are met irrespective of whether China particularly wants to or not.

That will have an external impact also, as with such a treaty in place, SK, Japan and the US will have to assume China will intervene if they try to take over NK.

But TBH, even without such a treaty, China can easily send the same message.

The tricky thing for China is how to get out of renewing the treaty without sending the wrong message to SK and the US to make them think regime change and annexation is fair game in regards to NK.

I am guessing China may offer the prospect of not renewing the treaty as a bargaining chip with America and SK.

I could easily see China offering to not renew the treaty with NK in exchange for the US pulling their forces from SK.

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AndrewS said:

I think SK and the USA will assume China will intervene in NK even if no treaty is in place.

After all, that is what happened in the last Korean War. And we see that today with Russia and all the colour revolutions that previously happened in Ukraine.

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As for not renewing the treaty, I think it will be a bargaining chip for China, as both NK and SK/US will be competing against each other for China's favour in this regard.

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China on Tuesday took a swipe at the United States, saying there was "no reason" to refuse dialogue with North Korea despite a string of missile tests strongly condemned by the UN Security Council.

The council met behind closed doors to discuss tightening sanctions on North Korea following the launch on Sunday of a medium-range missile that again raised alarm over Pyongyang's military capabilities.

But China, the North's main trade partner and ally, made clear that the push for diplomatic talks -- not imposing more sanctions-- was the priority.

"There is no reason why dialogue is not taking place in the current situation," Chinese Ambassador Liu Jieyi told reporters after the meeting, adding: "It takes political will."

The United States has said it was willing to enter into talks with North Korea -- but only if it halts its missile and nuclear tests.

"The need for dialogue is very strong," Liu insisted. "We don't see why dialogue cannot take place in the current situation now."

The ambassador stressed that during previous efforts to reduce tensions on the Korean peninsula, "every progress was achieved as a result of dialogue."

China has repeatedly called for a resumption of six-party talks that have been dormant since North Korea walked out on the negotiations in 2009.

Aside from China and North Korea, the talks include the United States, South Korea, Russia and Japan.

North Korea on Sunday launched the Pukguksong-2, which traveled about 500 kilometers (310 miles) before landing in the Sea of Japan.

The launch was the latest in a series this year as Pyongyang steps up its efforts to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States.

- More sanctions ? -

The United States has for weeks been negotiating a new Security Council sanctions resolution with China, but US Ambassador Nikki Haley said last week that no final draft had been clinched.

Asked about imposing new sanctions, the Chinese ambassador responded that "this was a hypothetical question" and added that current sanctions must be applied "in a comprehensive way."

In a unanimous statement adopted on Monday, the council instructed the UN sanctions committee to redouble efforts to implement a series of tough measures adopted last year.

The council also agreed to "take further significant measures including sanctions" to force North Korea to change course and end its "highly destabilizing behavior."

Calling the missile launches "totally unacceptable," Japanese Ambassador Koro Bessho said "the international community must not leave this total defiance unanswered."

"We hope we will be able to strengthen the sanctions mechanism," he said.

North Korea has carried out 11 missile launches this year, said Uruguay's Ambassador Elbio Rosselli, this month's council president, describing the tests as a "quantum leap" that showed "determined efforts to acquire aggressive capabilities."

But Rosselli declined to specify whether a new sanctions resolution was being prepared, saying the council was "discussing and considering different options."

In response to the latest launch, the United Nations called on North Korea "to stop further testing and allow space to explore the resumption of meaningful dialogue."

The North, which says it needs nuclear weapons to defend itself against the threat of invasion, said it "flatly rejected" the UN statement, which had been drawn up by "the US and its followers."

The Security Council adopted two sanctions resolutions last year to ramp up pressure on Pyongyang and deny leader Kim Jong-Un the hard currency needed to fund his military programs.

In all, six sets of sanctions have been imposed on North Korea since it first tested an atomic device in 2006.

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China's U.N. ambassador said Tuesday that multiple North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile tests, with no end in sight, show the "very strong" need for new talks with Pyongyang to reduce tensions and try to achieve denuclearization.

Liu Jieyi, whose country is closest to North Korea, said all progress with North Korea on eliminating nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula has come through dialogue, "so there's no reason why dialogue is not taking place in the current situation."

Liu spoke to reporters after emergency Security Council consultations behind closed doors on the North's latest missile test.

The United States, Britain and France have been pushing for a new U.N. resolution with tougher sanctions against North Korea.

But Liu said China "first and foremost" wants to see the six sanctions resolutions against North Korea already adopted by the council fully implemented.

"Meanwhile, we should also work to reduce tension, to de-escalate and also to try to achieve denuclearization through dialogue by political and diplomatic means," he said. "Dialogue should take place because we can only resolve the issue through dialogue."

The Security Council late Monday strongly condemned North Korea's "flagrant and provocative defiance" of U.N. sanctions banning ballistic missile tests and again vowed "to closely monitor the situation and take further significant measures including sanctions."

It also welcomed efforts by council members and others to facilitate "a peaceful and comprehensive solution through dialogue" with North Korea.

Last Friday, North Korea's deputy U.N. ambassador Kim In Ryong told U.N. correspondents that the government will rapidly strengthen its nuclear strike capability as long as the United States maintains its "hostile policy" toward the country.

He said that if the Trump administration wants peace on the Korean Peninsula it should replace the Armistice Agreement that ended the 1950-53 Korean War with a peace accord and halt its anti-North Korea policy, "the root cause of all problems."

The Trump administration has said there should be no talks until North Korea takes steps toward getting rid of its nuclear arsenal.

During Tuesday's Security Council meeting, members were briefed by U.N. political chief Jeffrey Feltman, mainly on technical aspects of the weekend launch.

Uruguay's U.N. Ambassador Elbio Rosselli, the current council president, said it was the 11th this year "which basically means a quantum leap and determined effort to acquire aggressive capabilities, and that is of major concern."

Japan's U.N. Ambassador Koro Bessho told reporters afterward that "North Korea is acting in triumphant and emboldened manner by this most recent launch, and is now clearly demonstrating that it is determined to further bolster its nuclear build-up."

Calling the provocations "an enormous global threat," he said "the international community must not leave this total defiance of the Security Council unanswered."

Bessho said Japan hopes the council will "strengthen the measures and strengthen the sanctions mechanism."

He said Japan is talking to the U.S., South Korea, and close neighbors Russia and China to make sure pressure on the North is continued "and even strengthened so that North Korea will change its policy."

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Visitors tour near the window with a sign "Pyongyang" at the N Seoul Tower in Seoul, South Korea, Friday, May 26, 2017.

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Jura said:

according to MilitaryTimes
China calls for new talks with North Korea on nukes

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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowed to take action against North Korea after Pyongyang's missile test on Sunday ended in the Sea of Japan.


Abe addressed the situation in a brief televised address on Monday: "As we agreed at the recent G7, the issue of North Korea is a top priority for the international community," according to

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.

"Working with the United States, we will take specific action to deter North Korea."

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North Korea tested a short-range Scud ballistic missile off its eastern coast at 4:40 p.m. ET (5:40 a.m. Monday Korea time). The missile flew for six minutes until it landed in the Sea of Japan.

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said the missile fell within Japan's exclusive maritime economic zone. He said there was no immediate report of damage to planes or vessels in the area.

"We cannot tolerate such repeated actions from North Korea, and we have lodged a strong protest against North Korea, criticizing them in the strongest form," Suga said in a statement after the test.

This is the third missile test North Korea has conducted in a month. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has vowed to field a nuclear-armed missile that is capable of reaching U.S. territory.

Russia and China condemned Sunday's missile test and called for restraint.

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The U.S. military announced last Friday that it will be launching

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this week. The test would involve launching a custom-made missile from the Marshall Island and aim to shoot it down in space by firing an interceptor missile from a base in California.

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KIENCHIN said:

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Looks like President Moon will make good his campaign promise to review the deployment of THAAD,

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