China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Inst

Captain
If you look at Sri Lanka, the "tributary" was actually replaced by his own aristocrats soon after he returned. He wasn't a "tributary" before Zheng He arrived, and only became one once he provoked Zheng He into capturing him. Likewise, Ryukyu was a dual "tributary" of both the Qing court and Satsuma, and Satsuma was at pains to hide their control of Ryukyu.

Regarding "benign" nature of the Chaogong system, remember that the Dali Kingdom was an independent state within the Chaogong system, but the Ming emperors changed their mind and annexed it. It is relatively benign compared to other systems of exploitation, but so was the American tributary system, if you look at the outcomes in "core" nations like France and Britain.
 
Back on topic, kind of, since this news is about US strategy in Korean peninsula. Could this herald a US strike on NK at the time? It would be conveniently pre-dawn in NK and East Asia.

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WORLD NEWS | Tue Apr 25, 2017 | 9:59am EDT
Entire U.S. Senate to go to White House for North Korea briefing

By Patricia Zengerle | WASHINGTON
Top Trump administration officials will hold a rare briefing on Wednesday at the White House for the entire U.S. Senate on the situation in North Korea.

All 100 senators have been asked to the White House for the briefing by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said White House spokesman Sean Spicer on Monday.

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While administration officials routinely travel to Capitol Hill to address members of Congress on foreign policy matters, it is unusual for the entire Senate to go to the White House, and for all four of those officials to be involved.

Wednesday's briefing was originally scheduled for a secure room at the Capitol, but President Donald Trump suggested a shift to the White House, congressional aides said.

Washington has expressed mounting concern over North Korea's nuclear and missile tests, and its threats to attack the United States and its Asian allies.

Trump, who called the leaders of China and Japan during the weekend, told U.N. Security Council ambassadors on Monday that "the status quo" is not acceptable, and said the council must be ready to impose new sanctions.

Congressional aides suggested the briefing was being held at the White House to underscore the message to North Korea that Washington is serious about wanting a shift in policy.

A senior Trump administration official said the flurry of activity around North Korea was "not a part of something choreographed" and cautioned against over-interpretation.

Senators said they were happy to be hearing from the White House.

"It's (the location) their choice," said Senator Ben Cardin, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "I hope that we hear their policy as to what their objectives are, and how we can accomplish that hopefully without dropping bombs."

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said the administration should be telling senators it had a "red line," if it has one. "By 2020, if nothing changes inside of North Korea, they'll have the technology, they'll have a breakthrough, to develop an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) that can reach America. I hope this president will say that's a non-starter," Graham said.

The briefing will take place at 3 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT).

Aides said they were working with the White House to schedule a similar briefing for the House of Representatives.

(Additional reporting by Steve Holland and Richard Cowan; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe and Lisa Shumaker)
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Back on topic, kind of, since this news is about US strategy in Korean peninsula. Could this herald a US strike on NK at the time? It would be conveniently pre-dawn in NK and East Asia.

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It's not clear what Trump's off ramp is should his saber rattling fails and Kim Jun-un calls his bluff on preemptive military strikes, by continuing to develop and test nuclear weapons and multi prong means to deliver them.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
This is what happened when you cross China

US missile system claims another victim: Hyundai Motor
  • By YOUKYUNG LEE, AP BUSINESS WRITER
SEOUL, South Korea — Apr 26, 2017, 2:19 AM ET


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Motor Co. reported Wednesday more than a 20 percent drop in its first quarter profit as the anti-Korean sentiment in
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sparked by the deployment of the U.S. missile defense system battered the Korean carmakers' sales in its biggest auto market.

The company said its January-March net profit was 1.3 trillion won ($1.2 billion), down 21 percent from 1.7 trillion won a year earlier.

Its profit slide was smaller than what analysts expected. FactSet, a financial data provider, said the market consensus was 1.22 trillion won.

Sales rose 5 percent to 23.4 trillion won ($20.8 billion). Operating profit fell 7 percent to 1.3 trillion won.

The biggest drag in earnings was the U.S. missile system that triggered China's anger and hurt Korean businesses in the world's most populous country.

Hyundai Motor, the maker of Tucson sports utility vehicles and Sonata sedans, said it sold 206,000 cars in China during the first three months, down 14 percent from a year earlier.

In January and February, Hyundai appeared to have been on track for sales recovery in China. That changed when South Korea's Defense Ministry signed an agreement with Lotte Group in late February to use its golf course in the southwest to deploy the missile defense system, known as THAAD. In March, Hyundai saw a sharp fall in its China car sales.

"Such sales fall is not due to the internal factor as you know. It is the result of the anti-Korean sentiment that flared up within China since late February and some rivals that launched marketing to exploit the anti-Korean sentiment," said Koo Zayong, a vice president at Hyundai Motor.

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and the U.S. say THAAD is a deterrent against North Korean aggression, but China opposed it because it worries that its powerful radars could peer through its territory.

China has shown its displeasure in other areas too. The once-steady inflows of Chinese tourists to South Korea withered, and Lotte was ordered to stop operations of its big discount chains in China, which cited safety violations. Instances of anti-Korean sentiments also emerged on Chinese social media and some South Korean schools canceled their trips to China.

Hyundai's performance in the U.S., its second-biggest market, also dropped 3 percent, outweighing growth in Western Europe and India.

Hyundai Motor was also hit by massive recalls it estimated to cost around 200 billion won ($178 million) during the first quarter. Earlier this month, Hyundai and Kia recalled 1.4 million cars in U.S., Canada and South Korea due to possible engine failures.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Don't know about the South Korean government but the Young 30 something Koreans I had a chance to interact with over the years all say they don't want a United Korea as it comes with a price that they are not willing to pay and the fact is they are not West Germany.

But if you tell those under-30s that China will bankroll the redevelopment of North Korea, what is their opinion of a Korea reunification in that scenario?
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Tell me something, Inst, what exactly do you think Finlandization means vis-a-vis China/Korea? Keep in mind the US would oppose such an outcome, if it has sufficient power to prevent it.

I think what Inst is trying to get to is that Korea would be "Canadized" as I call it.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't think you've thought this one through. In order for China to ensure a favorable post-war order on the peninsula, it needs to have troops occupying most if not all of NK. In order for that to happen, the PLA will need to either go through the NK army or the combined US/SK army. It's obvious which army is easier to defeat, and I think you can see now why China needs to do the heavy lifting.

It's easier to say you want the Americans and the SKs to do the bud nipping, but it's entirely unrealistic.



Excellent, that's the type of reassurance I spoke of earlier that China needs to give NK--the unofficial and non-binding type that can make KJU feel safe to provoke a war so the rest of my plan can be set in action.

No, Chinese troops do not need to occupy most of North Korea to obtain a favourable post-war reunification settlement.

If South Korea or American troops tried to remove any Chinese soldiers from North Korean territory, it would trigger a war with the entire Chinese military and a rerun of the last Korean war.

That is a powerful argument for a negotiated solution for the removal of both the Chinese and US military from a unified Korea, which would anyway be rebuilt using China's surplus industrial/financial capacity.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
I think what Inst is trying to get to is that Korea would be "Canadized" as I call it.
Nope, I said Finlandized and it's exactly what I meant to say. Canada has its own foreign policy interests and it acts on them, even in opposition to the US. The united Korea I spoke of would have no foreign policy of its own that is repugnant to Beijing, and wouldn't be in any alliance or confederation that China doesn't wish. Finally, US forces wouldn't be allowed on the Korean Peninsula.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Very interesting article from a Chinese blog, with original info supposedly from The Global Times, arguing China wouldn't respond with military should the US conducts surgical strikes to take out DPRK nuclear facilities. PRC military would only be used if US and ROK military forces cross the 38th Parallel. If true, is puts a whole new spin on North Korean denuclearzation.

If the article is legit, then we're in a Brave New World.

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Although the
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April 16 missile test failed, the
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"Carl Vinson" aircraft carrier to the peninsula waters also late ten days, but the situation has not been alleviated, the DPRK for the sixth nuclear test and engage in intercontinental The possibility of ballistic missile test firing is serious and the new grim situation may occur at any time.


"
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is the economic lifeline of North Korea, although nothing is easy, but if they want to solve the North Korean problem, they will solve it," he wrote.


Trump apparently in his way to Beijing to exert pressure to promote Beijing to cut off the threat of North Korea's economic lifeline, forcing Pyongyang to make a major concession.


In the past about a week, the Trump team on many occasions that the signs from Beijing "encouraging", Trump himself also in a Twitter said: "in the United States and China to solve the DPRK On the occasion of the question, why should I call China a currency manipulator? "On Thursday, Trump signed a memorandum requiring the Federal Ministry of Commerce to investigate foreign steel entering the US market. Trump said the investigation was not aimed at China, but Commerce Secretary Ross said it was a response to China's "steel dumping".

These statements convey subtle information, Washington to encourage Beijing to "help", but also exposed the Beijing "poor help" in the case of some possible options.

Beijing faces a very difficult situation. We advised Pyongyang, it did not listen. Made a "double suspension", Washington and Seoul did not work. Beijing's understanding of the DPRK nuclear issue and the lack of response to the DPRK nuclear issue, North Korea and the United States and South Korea on China have the opposite expectations, we can not dominate the whole, Trump said "China to solve the DPRK issue", and we hope Solution, there is a big gap.

How to do it? It seems that Beijing can only take a step to see, do what we should do and can do, and resolutely do not do we do not want to do and can not do, whether North Korea or the United States and South Korea happy unhappy, are the second.

First to distinguish the nature of the Korean nuclear issue. North Korea's nuclear test point near China, but it did not cause pollution to the northeastern region of China, it is the first issue between the United States and North Korea. North Korea must ensure that there will never be any pollution to the northeastern region of China, otherwise the nature of the DPRK nuclear issue will change, and any reaction in China will be possible.

As long as the DPRK engage in new nuclear tests, it will constitute a potential threat to the northeast China. When China will strengthen the sanctions against the DPRK through the framework of the Security Council. A significant reduction in North Korea's oil supply should be one of the initiatives. At the same time, it should not be the full sense of "off the oil." Do not let the DPRK have a humanitarian disaster, which must be a bottom line for China. As to the extent to which oil supplies are reduced, the Council should make a resolution.

As long as North Korea lost most of the oil supply, its entire industrial system would be hit hard, which Pyongyang insisted on the development of nuclear weapons should pay the price.

If such a severe sanctions can not stop the DPRK nuclear, then the United States and South Korea on the deep reflection, Pyongyang desperate to develop nuclear technology, which is the deep reason for their contribution. If Washington refuses to reflect, but to move against the DPRK, then the situation on the peninsula will move to a new stage of war.

China is firmly opposed to war, but light against useless, we must do a good job to meet the war, so that the United States and the DPRK will not use the fight to threaten us, but will give Beijing more respect for the idea.

Therefore, in addition to opposing war, China must be on the war once the outbreak of our position to carry out the presupposition and informed the United States and North Korea. We argue that if North Korea continues to carry out serious nuclear activities, the United States will carry out surgical attacks on its related facilities, Beijing should be diplomatic boycott, but do not have military intervention. Washington needs to take full account of North Korea's risk of retaliatory strikes against the Seoul region, believing that the risk is unacceptable to the US and South Korea.

Once the US and South Korean troops crossed the 38th line and carried out ground aggression against North Korea and directly overthrew the Korean regime, China should immediately carry out the necessary military intervention. We must not allow the means of subversive North Korea's regime and the formation of a unified peninsula by means of force, and that Beijing must speak clearly to Washington and Seoul.

China opposes North Korea's nuclear attack and opposes the use of force to change the status quo of the Korean Peninsula. China should cooperate with the United States and all parties to promote Pyongyang's abandonment of nuclear power. However, even if the above-mentioned policy line Beijing has paid some costs, it must be kept in the end. It is worth noting that China has done this kind of insistence strength, this insistence is also the majority of people want to see.
 
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