China's strategy in Korean peninsula
- Thread starter Phead128
- Start date
solarz
Brigadier
Which, if you think about it, is exactly the strategy that China used some 40 years ago.
I generally agree with the rest except a comment on the highlighted texts.
The 1950 intervention was between two states NK vs. SK, it was NOT intervention within one state (NK in this case). The principle that China lives with is referring to the second case above.
That was why China did not replace Kim Jong-Un's grandfather back in the 1950s when he was hiding in the cave near Chinese-NK boarder and have no troops of his own, even though he refused to listen to the Chinese advise of not to "invade" SK for NK was not capable nor was China willing to assist. So I don't think China broke her principle back then, nor do I see China going to break it now.
Background infor: You know that there was a group of north Korean cadres and officers (the Yan'an group) and four full NK divisions made up of fully war-hardened PLA veterans (Chinese ethic Koreans served in the 4th field army of PLA transferred to Kim). China had a much bigger chance back then if she choose to regime change or intervene within NK leadership than today (almost zero). China choose not to.
It was asked to help defend the country by its authorities as is allowed by the Charter of the United Nations. South Korea was not seen as a legitimate country but as a satellite of US.
The option for coercion is quite simple, give up nukes or China, the US, and SK will destroy you.
And China, US, and the SK will take a few nukes in return. Is it worth it?
solarz
Brigadier
That is an empty bluff. The whole point of having nukes is so that other countries cannot coerce you through threat of war. That was why China developed nukes in the 60's.
Worse yet, the fate of Saddam Hussein has shown quite clearly how foolish it would be to give in to such threats and surrender the one thing that would have protected him.
US likes to fracture countries - Korea, Vietnam, Cyprus, Sudan, Yugoslavia and after that Serbia come to mind - but that generally causes a lot of misery for the population and in Vietnam it only lasted twenty years.
There is no reason for Korea to remain divided but the wish of US to maintain forces near China and the interest of a small minority of the people that profit from the US presence. South Korea is now after about three decades politically rather shaky and not a natural political unit.
It would be a crass violation of the Charter of the United Nations, just as the destruction of Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. A political solution - removal of US forces from South Korea, end to South Korea's status as satellite of US and negotiations for reunification - are a much less destructive solution.
NK does not have sufficient supply of nukes nor the method to deliver them. The whole point of this exercise is to prevent them from achieving those things. Time is running out, the time to act is now, hence the urgency you're seeing from both the American and the Chinese side.