China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Brainsuker said:

To ensure that a fully independent NK to happen, China must do a regime change in NK. Because as long as Kim dynasty exist, they won't be able to become economically independent State.

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That is none of China's business. It is desirable but not a must.

Regime change is the typical western BS, China don't need that. The one thing Chinese must remember is that we don't turn ourselves to the one that we hate, "己所不欲勿施于人". That is both a moral principle and a practical choice out of the lessons that the western colorism's decline.

China has no ability to conduct regime change against a nuclear-armed power with nukes in range of its major northern cities. Regime change is, of course, preferable, but it has to come from within the North Korean establishment.

Inst said:

China has no ability to conduct regime change against a nuclear-armed power with nukes in range of its major northern cities. Regime change is, of course, preferable, but it has to come from within the North Korean establishment.

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Maybe, maybe not. What would happen under the following scenario in escalating sequences with some period of time between events (I'm not saying I know one way or the other)?

1. China stops buying most of DPRK's exports, including coal and ore
2. China increases pressure on DPRK regime by isolating it more through the UN and by not watering down additional UN sanctions
3. China stops providing DPRK with oil and refined fuels and products
   
4. China squeezes food shipments close to starvation level (probably the least likely event)

It's probable none of the actions China takes could cause regime collapse on its own, but taken together, and with international community doing its part, the North Korean government might (MIGHT) become so unstable, its elites may affect change.

North Korea then starts threatening its neighbors with attacks unless these sanctions are lifted. North Korea is basically the guy with a gun; unless you're willing to shoot him (saturation nuclear attack), you have to cajole him first.

The idea that sanctions can get North Korea to "behave" is absurd. Let KJU develop his nuclear capability first, then wait for saner heads to prevail.

The only reason the US wants China to slap hard sanctions on North Korea is to stir Sino-NK conflict and hopefully get the Norks and the Chinese to wipe each other out. That's why the Chinese have only been making half measures the entire time.

As to whether Korea has ever been a part of China; China only colonized what became the Koguryo kingdom. What became Silla was always outside direct Chinese control. It's like saying that China was a part of Portugal because the Portuguese controlled Macao. Strictly speaking, Xi can simply refer to the Koguryo history, which is disputed only by hardcore Korean nationalists.

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The thing Trump et al don't get, or get perversely, is that you cannot force North Korea to heel now that it has functioning nuclear weapons. If your goal is to start a nuclear war with North Korea, and make the Chinese and South Koreans carry the baggage, well, I said that Trump gets it perversely. More likely, however, is that once you push the Chinese hard enough, they'll quickly switch sides and actively support North Korea because they cannot afford the resumption of the Korean War. Kim knows this and this is why he's so belligerent, because no one has any options against him.

solarz said:

I feel the discussions on NK is too tainted by propaganda from western msm, even from members who are unsympathetic to the west. It just goes to show how insidious western propaganda is.

Here are some of the most common myths about NK:

1. Kim Jong Un is crazy.

No, he's not. He's shrewd and ruthless, and entirely rational. Everything he has done, and is doing, is aimed at furthering two goals: the continuation of the NK regime, and the continuation of his supreme position within that regime.

2. NK is on the brink of collapse, or NK is stuck in the dark ages.

No, NK is currently undergoing a market reform and experience strong economic growth similar to that of China in the 1980's.

3. NK is a threat to China.

Very debatable. China has no wish to see either a nuclear NK, nor a stronger US presence on the peninsula. However, the priority of those concerns, compared to, say, the South China Sea, is debatable. A nuclear NK and American missile defense on SK is still preferable to a NK regime collapse.

China's strategic priority right now is OBOR. Destabilization of the NK situation will siphon precious resources away from that project, and that is what China wishes very much to avoid right now.

By keeping the Kim dynasty afloat, China hopes to, at the worst case, buy enough time to complete OBOR, or more optimistically, for NK to grow strong enough to become a useful partner.

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That is "借刀杀人/Kill with other's hand" par excellence. The members who are unsympathetic to west have fall into that trap by agreeing to the western propaganda without realizing, therefor willingly to do the job that the west want but dare not, the regime change.

Inst said:

China has no ability to conduct regime change against a nuclear-armed power with nukes in range of its major northern cities. Regime change is, of course, preferable, but it has to come from within the North Korean establishment.

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Regime change is for the Koreans to decide, even if there were no nukes, and not something an outside power should arrange. It will of course be part of the reunification process. BTW on my favourite radio station someone mentioned a book of several years ago that describes forty regime change operations by the CIA in a discussion about the rumoured Russian influence in the recent US presidential elections.

Kim Jong Un's problem is that he's anti-Chinese; he's consolidated his power by destroying pro-Chinese elements in his regime. But Kim Jong Un can't be removed from afar; neither the Chinese nor the Americans can kill the North Korean regime without resort to a saturation nuclear attack. The Chinese may hate KJU, but compared to the alternative--getting nuked by him--he's a saint.

As Taxiya argues, it's absurd to expect the Chinese to do Trump's dirty work for him. The Chinese will huff and puff, but at the end of the day, they'll back the nuclear little pigs against the big bad wolf when push comes to shove.

delft said:

.... But North Korea is a politically independent state and interfering in North Korean politics is against the rules Beijing lives by....

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But Beijing did intervene in 1950 so there is precedent with NK. Helping NK survive is more or less an intervention that encompasses NK politics.

dingyibvs said:

And how do you suppose you're gonna negotiate an end to US suzerainty over SK? What leverage does China have? The only I can see it happening in the near term is to have Chinese boots in NK, while handing administrative control to SK. Withdrawal of Chinese troops as well as assistance with rebuild, preferably in an environment where the Americans are seen to have unnecessarily fanned the flames of war to start the whole thing in the first place, would give China all the leverage it needs.

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Perhaps offer a formal defensive alliance with NK so NK does not need its own nukes the way the US does with Japan, SK, and Philippines. These alliances definitely affect how the respective country handles itself on foreign policy.

Or a real long shot, a defensive treaty with SK.

delft said:

....In the end there can be only one outcome: a reunited and independent Korea that is a friend of China and a member of SCO. .....

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Why necessarily reunited? A fractured Korea actually serves the interest of placating and balancing actors on the Korean peninsula.One can never guarantee a unified and China friendly Korea will always be China friendly. Besides, Korean history had large periods of a fractured Korea such as Silla, Baekje, and Goguryeo.

solarz said:

I feel the discussions on NK is too tainted by propaganda from western msm, even from members who are unsympathetic to the west. It just goes to show how insidious western propaganda is.

Here are some of the most common myths about NK:

1. Kim Jong Un is crazy.

No, he's not. He's shrewd and ruthless, and entirely rational. Everything he has done, and is doing, is aimed at furthering two goals: the continuation of the NK regime, and the continuation of his supreme position within that regime.

2. NK is on the brink of collapse, or NK is stuck in the dark ages.

No, NK is currently undergoing a market reform and experience strong economic growth similar to that of China in the 1980's.

3. NK is a threat to China.

Very debatable. China has no wish to see either a nuclear NK, nor a stronger US presence on the peninsula. However, the priority of those concerns, compared to, say, the South China Sea, is debatable. A nuclear NK and American missile defense on SK is still preferable to a NK regime collapse.

China's strategic priority right now is OBOR. Destabilization of the NK situation will siphon precious resources away from that project, and that is what China wishes very much to avoid right now.

By keeping the Kim dynasty afloat, China hopes to, at the worst case, buy enough time to complete OBOR, or more optimistically, for NK to grow strong enough to become a useful partner.

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1) Two points on this one. First, who said KJU's crazy? You keep bringing it up, particularly in your replies to me, but few on this board even have said he's crazy. Two, if dynastic politics has taught China anything, it's that sooner or later a crazy and/or wildly incompetent emperor will assume the throne, with no mechanism in place for his removal. The difference is that by then, this crazy emperor will have nukes and the means to nuke China. I mean, Fat Bear was the heir apparent at one time, and this was only the second transition of power in NK! Are you really gonna trust them with nuclear tipped missiles?

2) NK IS stuck in the dark ages. They've been dabbling in market reforms since KJI's times, and what do they have to show for it? How can they access the capital and expertise necessary for growth if they do not trade with the outside?

3) NK IS a threat to China, the only thing debatable is whether it's a greater threat to China or to the US. I'm glad you brought up OBOR as well, NK is what's standing in the way of the eastern end and likely the most profitable section of OBOR. China will always need money for something, but this festering wound has to be addressed at some point of time and time is not China's friend right now. Sooner or later, a crazy emperor will assume the throne (or a sane emperor turns crazy, as oftentimes happened in Chinese history), and he'll have the means to wreak havoc on China.

Inst said:

Kim knows this and this is why he's so belligerent, because no one has any options against him.

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Correction: options for coercing North Korea are quite limited. Options for engaging with NK, however, remain plentiful.