China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by Phead128, Dec 11, 2013.

  1. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Captain
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    As long as China continues growing, it eventually should be able to win a strategic competition (with the USA) over Korea.

    And yes, if a conflict breaks out in Korea, there's no point supporting North Korea too much.

    It would be better to offer South Korea (and also North Korea) a deal that they cannot resist.
     
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  2. Brainsuker
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    Brainsuker New Member
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    To ensure that a fully independent NK to happen, China must do a regime change in NK. Because as long as Kim dynasty exist, they won't be able to become economically independent State.
     
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  3. delft
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    delft Brigadier

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    No country is economically fully independent. But North Korea is a politically independent state and interfering in North Korean politics is against the rules Beijing lives by. South Korea is a satellite of US, with US forces near its capital and its forces dependent on those US forces. NK is using nuclear weapons as deterrent just as UK except that UK has less reason to have them and is dependent of US for its missiles.
    The way to get rid of the nukes in Korea is a negotiated end to US suzerainty over the South and the removal of the US forces. After that North and South can negotiate a reunification.
     
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  4. dingyibvs
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    dingyibvs Junior Member

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    And how do you suppose you're gonna negotiate an end to US suzerainty over SK? What leverage does China have? The only I can see it happening in the near term is to have Chinese boots in NK, while handing administrative control to SK. Withdrawal of Chinese troops as well as assistance with rebuild, preferably in an environment where the Americans are seen to have unnecessarily fanned the flames of war to start the whole thing in the first place, would give China all the leverage it needs.
     
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  5. mr.bean
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    mr.bean Junior Member

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    man this is something China really don't need at this time. this NK situation is nothing but a liability to China. putting PLA boots in the ground in NK is bad, there must be a reason why China never left any troops there even after the Korean War.
     
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  6. delft
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    delft Brigadier

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    North Korea is an independent country and there is no reason for China to intervene until perhaps US violates the armistice agreement of 1953.
    On no occasion can China accept that North Korea would fall into the hands of the South which still is a satellite of US just as US couldn't accept Mexico to become a satellite of China, to make a ridiculous comparison.
    China bends to US pressure and bends back again just to try to avoid war. In the end there can be only one outcome: a reunited and independent Korea that is a friend of China and a member of SCO. It already has taken a long time and it will cost more time but US will not be able to maintain its suzerainty over the South while its military superiority in the area withers and the value for the economy of the South decreases.
    From Christian Science Monitor:
    http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia...ign=20170419_Newsletter: Daily&utm_term=Daily
     
    #246 delft, Apr 20, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2017
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  7. solarz
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    solarz Brigadier

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    I feel the discussions on NK is too tainted by propaganda from western msm, even from members who are unsympathetic to the west. It just goes to show how insidious western propaganda is.

    Here are some of the most common myths about NK:

    1. Kim Jong Un is crazy.

    No, he's not. He's shrewd and ruthless, and entirely rational. Everything he has done, and is doing, is aimed at furthering two goals: the continuation of the NK regime, and the continuation of his supreme position within that regime.

    2. NK is on the brink of collapse, or NK is stuck in the dark ages.

    No, NK is currently undergoing a market reform and experience strong economic growth similar to that of China in the 1980's.

    3. NK is a threat to China.

    Very debatable. China has no wish to see either a nuclear NK, nor a stronger US presence on the peninsula. However, the priority of those concerns, compared to, say, the South China Sea, is debatable. A nuclear NK and American missile defense on SK is still preferable to a NK regime collapse.

    China's strategic priority right now is OBOR. Destabilization of the NK situation will siphon precious resources away from that project, and that is what China wishes very much to avoid right now.

    By keeping the Kim dynasty afloat, China hopes to, at the worst case, buy enough time to complete OBOR, or more optimistically, for NK to grow strong enough to become a useful partner.
     
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  8. Equation
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    Equation Lieutenant General

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    I highly doubt that will happen anytime soon. The US military industrial complex needs a "threat" or boogeyman in order to sale that threat to Congress in order to get more funding for the military. No threat equal no or less of tax payers money going to be spent on military adventures and toys.
     
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  9. Inst
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    Inst Senior Member

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    Ahahaha, Xi really got the jump on Trump with his nonsense about Korea being a part of China. If confronted, Xi can explain the context, that what is now North Korea used to be a colony of Han China and the North Korean government resents China more than the South does. If pressed really hard, he can just remind South Koreans of what happened to Goguryeo, i.e, destroyed by a Tang-Silla alliance.
     
  10. taxiya
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    taxiya Major
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    By "his", do you mean Xi or Trump? I believe the "Korea being part of China" refers to Trump's twitt?

    Well, I don't see that as nonsense, but instead a historical fact. As you have said, putting in context (in the 2nd century BC), roughly today's NK was part of China (Han dynasty). And it was not something of a vassal state or tributary state, it was four commanderies 郡 (smaller than 省/province but bigger than 县/county), just like today's Beijing being part of 广阳郡/Guang Yang commandery during that same period. This is commonly known in China, but also outside of China, here is the wiki page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Commanderies_of_Han

    Although for most part of the past 2000 years, the kingdoms on the peninsular were their own states(being tributary or not to any one else), being part of Han dynasty for a brief period is also an equal fact. So if Xi and Trump actually touched this subject during their meeting, neither Xi nor Trump made anything nonsense. Actually, Trump is very respectful in my mind in this case that he bothered to learn something so far away and back in time. Maybe the twitting of such sensitive and uneasy issue (to the Koreans) by a sitting president is not wise, but that is another issue.
     
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