China's strategy in Korean peninsula
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Jura The idiot
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Tuesday at 10:12 PM
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Chinese President said Beijing is willing to join Pyongyang in opening up a bright future for bilateral ties, and lasting peace and common prosperity in the region at a welcome banquet held by on Thursday
now
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Chinese President said Beijing is willing to join Pyongyang in opening up a bright future for bilateral ties, and lasting peace and common prosperity in the region at a welcome banquet held by on Thursday
Jura The idiot
General
Jura The idiot
General
just seconds ago, these two guys were in chains:
and here's something I haven't seen yet:
the guy to the left is slamming a hammer to the fist of the guy to the right:
and ...:
pretty scary even if it were a trick, LOL
it's from
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A couple of interesting developments recently:
1. North Korea has frequent meeting with China and Russia, potentially also Japan too.
2. US basically disavowed UNSC by claiming UNSC resolutions are non binding before quickly walking it back the next day.
3. Russia is basically openly defying UNSC sanctions on North Korea by trading oil
4. China is clearly not happy about these sanction since it prefers a nuclear free Korean peninsula, and it showed it by abstaining in a recent UNSC NK sanctions monitoring vote, which Russia vetoed.
With the upcoming collapse of the UNSC, it seems like China is running out of options in dealing with North Korea's nuclear program (which is a long term threat to China). Besides hoping for a more China friendly government in the next South Korean election, what does everyone think about China's strategy in the Korean peninsula?
What if China could give stronger security guarantee to North Korea (conventional weapons), in exchange for them to give up their nuclear program?
1. North Korea has frequent meeting with China and Russia, potentially also Japan too.
2. US basically disavowed UNSC by claiming UNSC resolutions are non binding before quickly walking it back the next day.
3. Russia is basically openly defying UNSC sanctions on North Korea by trading oil
4. China is clearly not happy about these sanction since it prefers a nuclear free Korean peninsula, and it showed it by abstaining in a recent UNSC NK sanctions monitoring vote, which Russia vetoed.
With the upcoming collapse of the UNSC, it seems like China is running out of options in dealing with North Korea's nuclear program (which is a long term threat to China). Besides hoping for a more China friendly government in the next South Korean election, what does everyone think about China's strategy in the Korean peninsula?
What if China could give stronger security guarantee to North Korea (conventional weapons), in exchange for them to give up their nuclear program?
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North Korea will never give up their arsenal. Not program at this point, arsenal. It is a fact of existence now. But it isn't that bad IMO. North Korean arsenal cannot be ignored by anyone seeking to 1st strike China. That is because if China falls, North Korea knows it is next. Nobody else can prop them up economically. Game theory dictates that they must launch and maybe get something, or not launch and fall later for nothing. Likewise, any adversary must understand that there is a Sino-Korean MDT, and cannot risk the possibility that NK launches a 2nd strike. They will be forced to strike NK as well. That means for the purposes of deterrence in a 2nd strike, NK arsenal = China arsenal. But if NK does a 1st strike, it's just their arsenal.
This is hugely advantageous for China when it already has its own arsenal: it gets free deterrence as if it had a bigger arsenal, while holding 0 escalatory risk since North Korea knows its on its own offensively (but still has the Sino-Korean MDT defensively). All the risk is on North Korea.
This also encourages peace in the Korean Peninsula. You can't think only of 1 step. If North Korea has no nukes, then South Korea can invade. They may gamble that China would be cowed by some foreign power and sit it out. But with nukes, Kim can say "I will be forced to launch if you do not honor the Sino-Korean MDT". So China must intervene rationally. This looks like a loss of flexibility, but is actually a very strong deterrent. South Korea knows for a fact that China will be forced to intervene regardless of how much support they get and how much they intimidate China, so they will not risk it because even winning they will suffer huge damage.
I think you guys both make good points, but this is about China's strategy in Korean peninsula. After China kicks US out of west pacific, North Korea's nuclear program is not in the interest of China. This is also partly why Chinese officials still insist on denuclearizing the Korean peninsula, and why they voted in favour of the original sanctions.
If North Korea's nuclear program sanctions goes away, then what is there to stop the rest of Chinese neighbours from building their own nuclear weapons? South Korea and Japan are being kept in check by US for now, hard to say in the future. Vietnam would love to get their hands on some nuclear weapons too.
North Korea quit the NPT while being protected by China. NPT means all non P5 members must accept routine inspections and audit, and Chinese auditors can pay special attention to them. Plus satellites can detect any unauthorized or suspicious construction. Would SK or Japan dare quit NPT after US just withdrew?
Remember that India and Pakistan were never in the NPT, but North Korea was, which forms the legal basis for sanctions. And even unilateral sanctions from China would devastate them, much less any military action.
Other part is enrichment capability. Only EU, France, Russia, China and US have large scale enrichment capabilities. Everyone else just buys from them.
Long term issues must be taken into account but compared to the US - China hegemonic clash, the N.Korea issue is small potatoes. China can be more flexible as long as the primary goal can be accomplished with a higher chance of success by more effectively utilising N.Korea's nuclear arsenal