China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by Phead128, Dec 11, 2013.

  1. Phead128
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    Phead128 Junior Member

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    Xi Jinping gave a personal pledge to give political support to Kim if US negotiates in bad faith. The Summit cancellation and Libya model farce is evidence that US is negotiating in bad faith, so Xi will see no use to continue harsh sanctions.

    China's enforcement of sanctions was to get NK to the table. If it is US that makes trouble and cancelled summit, then NK claims they made sufficient peace overtures, China will give partial sanction relief.

    Trump can't attack NK, because Xi will visit Pyongyang in June per Kim's invite.

    So Trump has lost a lot of negotiating power by alienating Moon (didn't notify him prior to cancel), alienating China (trade war tariffs) and Kim (trolling hostages and nuke test site )

    It is a mess and US has blame too. It's not all on NK as some people like to portray.
     
  2. Phead128
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    Phead128 Junior Member

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    Xi will visit Pyongyang in June per Kim's invite.

    Xi meets Kim 3 times, and Kim meets Moon 2 times.

    Tactically US won because they got 3 hostages back and nuke test site useless...

    Strategically, NK won because US cancelled first, alienating Moon (sowing seeds of discourse in US-SK alliance) and got better NK-China ties, and US credibility took a huge hit.

    So NK gets closer ties with China and SK, and US looks like an insolent child that might be bypassed altogether.

    Kim can tell Moon his demands and Moon can kick out US troops and return wartime OPCON. China can offer sanction relief to NK given NK made good peace overtures.

    The world doesn't revolve around US. NK will just work with China and SK, then US will see how much it's influence has dropped.
     
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  3. Jura
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    Jura General

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    in this thread Thursday at 7:01 PM
    and now I read
    Trump says looking at U.S.-DPRK summit on June 12
    Xinhua 2018-05-27 14:20:23 http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/27/c_137209939.htm

     
  4. advill
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    advill Junior Member

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    Re: 12 June 2018, Impending probable Talk between US President Trump & NK Chairman Kim --- I quote Hung Ying-Ming (1572-1620) "The peace that comes from peaceful surroundings is not true peace. Only in the peace obtained in the midst of activity is found the true sphere of one's original nature".
     
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  5. Phead128
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    Phead128 Junior Member

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    Worst case, NK got much stronger ties with China and SK. And US looks like insolent child bypassed by SK as it directly deals with NK. Moon is infuriated at Trump's cancellation. (Sow seed of division in US-SK alliance).

    I don't see NK desperate for a deal.
     
  6. Jura
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    Jura General

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    now I read
    China encourages DPRK, U.S. to further show sincerity: FM
    Xinhua| 2018-05-31 20:25:24 http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/31/c_137220916.htm

     
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  7. advill
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    advill Junior Member

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    Liu Xiang "One who keeps talking and will NOT listen will never succeed" .... Good luck to the impending talks between Trump & Kim - hopefully taking place on 12 June in Singapore.
     
  8. Phead128
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    Phead128 Junior Member

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    Nobody believes US can credibly threaten war again. Chinese don't believe US will attack NK, China knows this, NK knows this, US knows this. Hence the illusion of results and tough talk, as each gives the other side a face-saving exit from their war threats.

    US will begin their strategic abandonment of SK as the price for defense far outweighed by the likelihood of Seattle or Los Angeles getting targeted by retailitoy nuke strike if US comes to the aid of SK. NK will raise the price enormously high for US intervention in Korea again. US will strategically retreat and draw down US troops.
     
  9. icbeodragon
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    icbeodragon Junior Member

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    Why would the US unilaterally leave? NK shoots, whatever the outcome, the kim regime ends, and China has to deal with the (nuclear) fallout. Kim is interested more in regime longevity than attacking the US.

    Very optimistic for China, just wait for the US to go away. Your scenario where SK ends the alliance is more likely, and even that is very unlikely.

    Its pretty clear that Moon is pushing hard for US involvement , and remains committed to the alliance barring any further results in the talks. Of course, this is in SK's interest.

    As long as NK maintains nukes, I seriously doubt that SK will give any thought to letting go of its insurance.
     
  10. advill
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    advill Junior Member

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    I am very much a "student" of Ancient Chinese wise sayings. According to Confucius "To see what is right and not do it is want of courage". However, if Trump tries to be a "bull" in a China-shop at the impending talks with Kim, he will ruin everything aimed for mutual benefit. BTW, ferocious bulls are killed by the Matadors in Spain. Ole!
     
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