China's strategy in Korean peninsula

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Trump is more like a mascot than a stick. A very drunk mascot.
Couldn't resist could you.
He is using the North Korean's own bluster, and keeping them aware that they are not dealing with past "reasonable" Presidents. Using the North Korean's own language against them.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Well the past 50 years have gotten little done, So why not try talking to them in a language they understand? I mean This is basically an International protection Racket.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Well the past 50 years have gotten little done, So why not try talking to them in a language they understand? I mean This is basically an International protection Racket.

Yet what has Trump accomplished, aside from sabotaging Tillerson's efforts? What concessions has NK made so far?

The US, on the other hand, went from "fiery destruction" to "ok, let's chat, no preconditions".
 
now I read
China, ROK agree to advance relations along right track
Xinhua| 2017-12-14 23:01:41
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The leaders of China and the Republic of Korea (ROK) on Thursday agreed to advance bilateral relations to ensure the long-term stability of their ties.

The commitment was made during talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his ROK counterpart Moon Jae-in in Beijing.

Xi welcomed Moon on his state visit to China for the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries.

China and the ROK are friendly neighbors and strategic cooperation partners, Xi said.

He said the two countries have made remarkable progress in exchanges and cooperation in various fields, which has brought tremendous benefits to both sides.

There have been some twists and turns in China-ROK relations, which have provided enlightenment for both sides on how to create a better future together on the basis of mutual respect for each other's core interests, said Xi.

He said China attaches great importance to relations with the ROK and is ready to work with the ROK to maintain the original intention of establishing diplomatic relations and take full account of the well-being of the two peoples.

Both countries should uphold the basic principle of respecting each other's core interests and major concerns as well as the principle of treating each other as neighbors with sincerity, he said.

Xi also suggested that the two sides adhere to the principle of mutual benefit and win-win cooperation to ensure that the development of bilateral relations is on the right track.

The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) has brought broader prospects for China's cooperation with its neighboring countries, including the ROK, said Xi.

He called on the two sides to strengthen political communication, cement the foundation of mutual trust, and make good use of the exchange mechanism between legislative bodies and political parties of the two countries.

China welcomes the ROK's participation in the Belt and Road construction, said Xi, hoping to promote the alignment of the Belt and Road Initiative with the ROK's development strategy.

He called for increased exchanges in areas such as youth, education, science and technology, media, sports, health and local affairs, for the long-term and stable development of bilateral ties.

Moon's visit coincided with China's annual memorial for the victims of the Nanjing Massacre, which fell on Wednesday. Moon extended his empathy to the victims.

This was Moon's fifth trip to China and the first as ROK president. He expressed his admiration for China's development achievements.

Calling the two countries important trading partners, Moon said the development of regional countries is closely linked with China's Two Centenary Goals.

The ROK expects joint efforts with China to cement political trust and friendship between the two peoples, boost cooperation in various areas and coordination in global and regional affairs, Moon said.

The ROK hopes to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative and promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind, he said.

The two leaders also exchanged their views on the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

"We must unswervingly uphold the goal of a nuclear-free peninsula and never allow war or chaos on the peninsula," said Xi.

China believes that ultimately, the Korean Peninsula issue could only be solved through dialogue and consultation, he said.

China and the ROK have important common interests in maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, Xi added.

China will continue to strengthen communication and coordination with the ROK on maintaining stability and preventing wars on the Korean Peninsula and promoting peace and talks, said Xi.

He said China supports the continued improvement of the relations between the two countries on the Korean Peninsula through dialogues and contacts, which will help ease tensions and finally settle the issue.

Moon said the ROK is firmly committed to resolving the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue through peaceful means, and is willing to work with China to safeguard peace and stability in the region.

Xi reaffirmed China's position on the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in the ROK and hoped the ROK will properly deal with the issue.

After their talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of cooperative documents in areas such as economic and trade, green and ecological industries, environment, health, agriculture, energy and Winter Olympics.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The NK situation today amounts to a defacto NATO nuclear weapons sharing agreement, whereby Chinese nukes with Chinese-enabled PALS system is offshored to it's North Korean allies, just as United States positions thousands of nuclear weapons on NATO allied state soil, and giving the NATO allied states permission to use nukes in wartime, with ultimate PALS control authority from Washington D.C.

There is no otherway China would tolerate the uncertainty of NK harboring it's own nukes without Chinese-enabled PALS system for detonation. Whether it's by Chinese-supplied computer software/hardware with back-doors, or covert enablance of NK through the AQ Khan network via Pakistan. The nominal sanctions slapped by China on NK economy is only verifiable with Chinese customs reports, which easily can be manipulated or fabricated to allow continue propping up of DPRK regime forever.

The advantage is that China ultimately is in control of NK nuke usage, which it can use as tremendous leverage to push US for complete withdrawal of US troops and military presence from the Korean peninsula and also to pressure US during a Taiwan conflict.

China could easily have extended it's nuclear umbrella over NK, or stationed tactical nukes in NK soil to assuage NK fears... but instead has opted for a defacto "NATO nuclear weapons" sharing setup with NK whereby China has plausible deniability if need to circumvent the 'no first-use' doctrine.
 
now I read
China urges active efforts to resolve Korean Peninsula issue
Xinhua| 2017-12-23 14:34:17
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China called on relevant countries to remain restrained and work to ease tension and properly resolve the Korean Peninsula issue.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying made the remarks Saturday in response to the UN Security Council's new resolution against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

The Security Council on Friday adopted Resolution 2397 to further tighten sanctions against the DPRK in response to its ballistic missile launch late last month. The resolution bans nearly 90 percent of refined petroleum exports to the DPRK.

The resolution also stressed that the sanction should not affect normal economic activities, diplomatic activities, food and humanitarian aid.

The resolution reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia, and called for a peaceful, diplomatic and political solution to the issue. It also expressed support for the resumption of the Six Party Talks.

"China calls on all sides to implement UN Security Council resolutions including Resolution 2397 in a comprehensive and balanced manner, in order to push for a peaceful solution to the Korean Peninsula issue," Hua said.

China remains committed to denuclearizing the Peninsula, maintaining peace and stability and resolving problems through dialogue and negotiation, said the spokesperson.

"We hope all parties support China's proposals of 'suspension for suspension' and the 'dual-track', and work with China to promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," Hua said.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
now I read
China urges active efforts to resolve Korean Peninsula issue
Xinhua| 2017-12-23 14:34:17
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The resolution has little or no effect on NK.

In the past 10 years they upgraded the Anju pethrochemical manufacturing plants to coal liquidification , eliminating 3000-10000 barrell / day consumption with this project only.

The urea and NH3 process now completly coal based, and more chemical plant changed over to coal or upgraded , like Hamhung 1/2.

At the same time the Undok synhetic fual plant is idle for at least ten years, the synthgas storage neve been inflated during this period on the google earth pictures, but it maintaned and contionously upgraded.The pictures are from 2016, so maybe the situation is a bit defferent now.

So , the Phongwa refinery has plenty of spare capacity to compensate the results of this resolution.
And generaly all UN resolution up to this point had 0 impact on the NK economy, in best case they increased the control of the central goverment.

They allready beyond the self sustain point with the coal liquification, and the Chinese-NK trade run by goverment agreements, not by low level trade between companies.


And similar interesting information is the coal gasification is a big business in China, they installed a lot plant liqe this over there in the past decades.

So , guess where the plants come from.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
There is no otherway China would tolerate the uncertainty of NK harboring it's own nukes without Chinese-enabled PALS system for detonation. Whether it's by Chinese-supplied computer software/hardware with back-doors, or covert enablance of NK through the AQ Khan network via Pakistan. The nominal sanctions slapped by China on NK economy is only verifiable with Chinese customs reports, which easily can be manipulated or fabricated to allow continue propping up of DPRK regime forever.
The NK nukes are NK developed/ manufactured, means there is NO chinese PALS in them.

PALS require deep integration of the bomb parts with the enabling mechanism, that is not somethign that can be back dooring.

Actualy, the whole NK nuke project main target is to keep the independence fo the NK political class from China as well.

Simple game theroy ,scenarios:
1. NK attack south: US attack back , Chinese attack from norht, KIM DEAD ( or in prison)
2. South/US attack North Korea : Chinese attack from north, KIM DEAD ( or in prison)
3. US scared to start war, NK passive :KIM ALIVE and happy with his resorts.

So, the NK won't start war, means the main purpose of the NK military is the retaliation against the south in the event of agression. But due to the Chinese intervention the chance of this is not acceptable for Kim.
Now, what happens is they started to make retaliation capability against the US mainland, it makes the best part of the NK military redundant. They saving big pile of money now. They invest that money into the real economy.

This is scary for US/SK.
The NK now reaching the no return point of independence from US and China( from military standpoint).

China hasn't got too much room to play, but I think on a general level a nuk NK better for them than a economically collapsed one.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
The NK nukes are NK developed/ manufactured, means there is NO chinese PALS in them.

PALS require deep integration of the bomb parts with the enabling mechanism, that is not somethign that can be back dooring.

Actualy, the whole NK nuke project main target is to keep the independence fo the NK political class from China as well.

Simple game theroy ,scenarios:
1. NK attack south: US attack back , Chinese attack from norht, KIM DEAD ( or in prison)
2. South/US attack North Korea : Chinese attack from north, KIM DEAD ( or in prison)
3. US scared to start war, NK passive :KIM ALIVE and happy with his resorts.

So, the NK won't start war, means the main purpose of the NK military is the retaliation against the south in the event of agression. But due to the Chinese intervention the chance of this is not acceptable for Kim.
Now, what happens is they started to make retaliation capability against the US mainland, it makes the best part of the NK military redundant. They saving big pile of money now. They invest that money into the real economy.

This is scary for US/SK.
The NK now reaching the no return point of independence from US and China( from military standpoint).

China hasn't got too much room to play, but I think on a general level a nuk NK better for them than a economically collapsed one.

It is true that the main target of NK nukes is the US, SK and Japan, but there is no guarantee that NK would not use her nukes against China or Russia or others .... unfortunately :(
 
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