China's strategy in Korean peninsula

mr.bean said:

that doesn't seem like a deal at all(there's nothing in it for China). China would be an idiot to take up a deal like that and Trump doesn't look like a guy who will stick to deals anyway.

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Yeah, the sequence needs tweaking, but the principle is right. Removal of all American forces FIRST, and then, it would be only natural for China to disarm an unstable regime next to it. Good for China, good for South Korea, good for North Korea, good for American budget, bad for American desire to encircle/contain China. Aaand that's where we're stuck. You see who's pissin' in the punch bowl here, dontcha?

AndrewS said:

Newsweek Article.

The withdrawal of US troops from SK is also in China's interest.

It is also in South Korea's long term interest, because it will face a less hostile China relationship and because SK won't be dragged into a potential land war due to a separate US-China conflict elsewhere.

WAR WITH NORTH KOREA: WILL TRUMP MAKE A DEAL WITH CHINA TO SAVE THE WORLD?

But there was more to Kissinger’s visit. Given the growing threat of North Korea’s nukes, the Trump team is considering a grand bargain with China—one almost as audacious as Nixon’s: If Beijing will use all its diplomatic and economic leverage to pressure Kim Jong Un’s regime to give up its nuclear program—and if Kim followed through in a way that could be verified—the United States would agree to recognize the North diplomatically, supply it with economic aid and, eventually, draw down its 29,000 troops in South Korea. That has long been one of Pyongyang’s core demands of the U.S.

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Not going to happen if that sequence of events is what Newsweek (or Trump himself) is proposing. At best, the article is just another deceiving trick. It is in fact "lay down your gun at me, then I will lay down (I mean fire) mine at you." I don't understand how could people like Newsweek or whoever behind this proposal believe others are so stupid to buy it unless Newsweek is stupid itself.

If China is ever going to put all her weight on KJN to abandon his nuclear program, the only acceptable offer from US is its simultaneous withdraw of its troops on the peninsular. Anything less than that (NK's gradual denuclearization and US gradual withdraw) is more between NK and US, China would do accordingly, something below her full weight.

I am surprised that Kissinger is still active on the stage. He is surely an excellent (for US) diplomat by bringing in such proposal, but makes himself look stupid by thinking China is stupid.

North Korea congratulates China ahead of Communist Party congress

By | Oct. 17, 2017 at 9:17

North Korea sent a message of congratulations to China on Tuesday.

Oct. 17 (UPI) -- congratulated China on the occasion of the 19th congress of the Communist Party, a rare move for Pyongyang.

Pyongyang's state-controlled new agency KCNA reported Wednesday, local time, the central committee of the Korean Workers' Party sends "warm greetings to the party, party members and the people of China on the occasion of the 19th congress of the Chinese Communist Party."

"The people of China have made great strides in carrying out socialist construction under the correct leadership of the Chinese Communist Party," the North Korean central committee said. "We consider this an extremely joyous event."

North Korea used its state media to send a similar message to China on June 30, when Beijing celebrated the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.

That message was addressed to Chinese President .

Pyongyang also sent a message of congratulations in 2012, during the 18th party congress, according to Yonhap.

Park Byung-kwang, the director of Northeast Asia research at the Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul, said North Korea must send these signals to China because the world's second-largest economy plays an important role.

"No matter how frosty relations become between China and North Korea, North Korea has no intention to cut off relations," Park said.

North Korea is playing its cards carefully at a time when the U.S. State Department is not ruling out diplomacy.

Department spokeswoman Tuesday "diplomacy is our preferred approach."

"We're not give up on that," Nauert said.

"We want North Korea to understand that it can choose a different path. It can choose a different path. It's up to North Korea to change its course of action if they want to return to credible negotiations," Nauert said.

Translation: We're sorry for acting bad to you guys before; we really didn't think that it would get this ugly or that we'd need your back-up again this soon. Anyways... please don't let Dotard kill us.
Thanks - North Korea

AndrewS said:

Newsweek Article.

The withdrawal of US troops from SK is also in China's interest.

It is also in South Korea's long term interest, because it will face a less hostile China relationship and because SK won't be dragged into a potential land war due to a separate US-China conflict elsewhere.

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Indeed the NEWSWEEK article has the solution backwards. US is the less reliable party so should act first: Grant independence to South Korea and promise to remove its armed forces. Then SK can sign a treaty with China in which China guarantees to defend SK against an attack over the armistice line just as it has given a similar undertaking to NK.
NK doesn't need nuclear weapons after the removal of US forces so these can be transferred to China. At the same time the economies of NK, SK, China and Russia can be connected by rail, road, pipeline and glass fibre. Aid from US will not be necessary.
At some time in the future NK and SK can be reunited.

delft said:

Indeed the NEWSWEEK article has the solution backwards. US is the less reliable party so should act first: Grant independence to South Korea and promise to remove its armed forces. Then SK can sign a treaty with China in which China guarantees to defend SK against an attack over the armistice line just as it has given a similar undertaking to NK.
NK doesn't need nuclear weapons after the removal of US forces so these can be transferred to China. At the same time the economies of NK, SK, China and Russia can be connected by rail, road, pipeline and glass fibre. Aid from US will not be necessary.
At some time in the future NK and SK can be reunited.

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This arrangement has historical precedent too. China never shirked her duties as head of the tributary system and always went to her allies' defence [][][], even if in some cases she ultimately lost. China's ex-allies can blame her for losing and allowing them to fall under the colonial rule of much more brutal occupiers like the French and Japanese, but these ex-allies can never say China did not try. China paid with the lives of Chinese soldiers in the defence of these ex-allies, sometimes successfully sometimes not.

quoting Sep 8, 2017

Jura said:

now I read
What can China do in response to THAAD deployment in South Korea?
2017-09-08 15:31 GMT+8

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7 minutes ago

Ultra said:

The REAL QUESTION is what can China do if SK and JP start developing nuclear weapons while possessing advanced anti-ballistic missile defence systems.

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Jura said:

quoting Sep 8, 2017
The REAL QUESTION is what can China do if SK and JP start developing nuclear weapons while possessing advanced anti-ballistic missile defence systems.
7 minutes ago

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What does China have to do? It can always oppose it like the US opposes North Korean nukes but in the end, it doesn't change anything even if both SK and Japan become nuclear powers. The US can't be truly challenged by a nuclear North Korea or Iran, and China can't be challenged either by a nuclear Japan or South Korea. For a small country to even consider getting into a nuclear war with one of the Big 3, it has to have been pushed and bent over backwards so hard that their leaders believe that the end of the nation is not only imminent but on the horizon unless some incalculable miracle happens in desperate nuclear war. Short of that, they'll take from China whatever they're taking today without even mentioning nuclear weapons.

Talk of SK or Japan developing nuclear weapons is pure hysterics.

Any attempt to do so by either will see the same kind of intentional sanctions placed on them as is currently being imposed on NK.

If sanctions fail to dissuade the attempt, China could always just bomb every nuclear site, military or civilian, in both countries.

Just the threat of such a move alone will be enough to force any government seeking to pursue such a course to u-turn or be toppled internally.

The fact is if the US is so confident in its missile defense technology why bother with North Korea with only a handful of nukes? The reason why they're alarmed because the chances of a successful intercept in a real war situation aren't good enough to allay any fear. Do you think Japan and South Korea have more confidence when the distance from their nuclear adversaries is right next door unlike the US on the other side of the world. Add to that how they believe China and North Korea will be the only ones that will use nuclear weapons first... The more developed and integrated a country is, the more vulnerable to damage beyond what just a nuclear explosion can do. One city being destroyed can cause a tsunami through the rest of the country. Where I live they just had massive wild fires engulfing entire rural towns. Some of the estimates on damage were said to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. A couple decades ago there was the Oakland Hills fire. That was only a few square miles of homes destroyed and the costs of damage were around the same. A major city being destroyed... That's going be in the trillions of dollars not including the ripple effects. Then they don't think about how China and North Korea will just build more nuclear weapons in response. And I bet they're arrogant enough to believe China and North Korea just can't do that because they say so. Look at how the US taunted Prompted Global Strike. They made it out that the US would be able to terrorize the world into submission and they were loving it. Yeah that's if you believe no one would do anything about it. Now you have a hypersonic tech race where the US fears Chinese developments to the point of talk of a hypersonic weapons ban. There would be no such fear if you didn't taunt it in the first place thinking the world couldn't counter.

Trump is the one blowing up tensions just to be lauded by his political base. If Japan and South Korea are blind lemmings to the US, then they should go fall off the cliff. It is a bluff on part of the US. It's a tremendously irresponsible bluff that could blow back in many different ways including starting a war and South Korea will suffer the most and the consolation prize that North Korea loses a war will be meaningless and China should takeover North Korea as punishment. So-called responsible nations don't follow blindly an egomaniac that thinks only of his own self-aggrandizement.

Like I said before, everything they demand of China is the same exact things they demanded before North Korean nukes were a factor. Nukes are just the latest excuse. Unless Japan and South Korea are going to immediately use their nukes, they're worthless just having them. Do you see Japan and South Korea holding hands anytime soon? Do you think the US can herd a bunch of cats in one direction? Advocating Japan and South Korea have nukes is just going to be a huge headache on the US when they both bicker against one another. The US will have to favor one and the other will be another nuclear power not under the US's control. And the US forgets other countries can counter. They want to punish China for not obeying to the point of isolation. China will then be able to transfer nuclear weapons technology to the US's enemies around the world. What are they going to do? Isolate China?

China should have no fear of Japan and South Korea going nuclear because the US will be the one that suffers the consequences the most in the end.