China's SCS Strategy Thread

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by lilzz, Apr 16, 2007.

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  1. solarz
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    solarz Colonel

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    Agreed on principle. At first, this seems like a no-brainer: any attempt to separate Taiwan from China should be treated as an attack on Chinese sovereign territory.

    However, China's nuclear strategy is based on second strike. Changing that policy to have a first-strike condition will require substantial changes to China's nuclear capabilities.
     
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  2. manqiangrexue
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    manqiangrexue Captain

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    By changes to capability, I assume you mean large increase in quantity, right? From what I understand, China's top nukes, DF-41, DF-ZF, JL-2/3 are quite competitive even modestly speaking.
     
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  3. Biscuits
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    Biscuits Junior Member
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    2nd strike strategy was to ensure conventional war. During 1979 for example, China was fairly confident in beating the soviets in a limited confrontation and were prepared to blitz Vladivostok if the soviets joined Vietnam's side. The point of 2nd strike policy meant that the soviets would be less tempted to use nukes, since even if they were at war with China, there is a "guarantee" that nukes won't be used unless Russia uses them first.

    If Taiwan or even more territory was wholly taken over by America, it would mean such a deterioration in the international community that rules no longer exist. The NFU would just be a piece of paper then. And Washington would receive ample warning, since no-one on either side of the pacific actually want a nuclear Armageddon.

    This is all a bit OT to the thread itself, but in short, an American invasion of Taiwan would either be a Chinese victory or the end of the world.

    On topic, it is more realistic for US to challenge China in the SCS, since it's status is essentially ambiguous. It's also uninhabited aside from military, so they wouldn't use nukes over it. Like, America would nuke someone if they won against the US army in California, but they wouldn't nuke someone if they took Guam.

    Or perhaps even better, just challenge some other country that's far away from China so the PLA can't properly support them, and China has zero reasons to escalate. Like Venezuela.
     
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  4. solarz
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    solarz Colonel

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    Not only quantity but doctrines as well. In second strike, your objective is to have a nuclear strike capability that can withstand a enemy first strike and still be able to inflict tremendous damage in retaliation. In a first strike doctrine, your objective becomes destroying as much of your opponent's nuclear capabilities as possible so as to minimize the retaliation. In the former, your missiles target civilian population centers, whose location is public information. In the latter, your missiles need to target enemy military installations, and you'd have to locate those first.
     
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  5. Jura
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    Jura General

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    looks like
    China's SCS Strategy Thread
    has gone nuclear
     
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  6. Brumby
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    Brumby Major

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    I wonder what caused it? LOL.
     
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  7. siegecrossbow
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    siegecrossbow Brigadier
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    Going to close the thread for a week till people cool down.
     
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