China's SCS Strategy Thread

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by lilzz, Apr 16, 2007.

  1. plawolf
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    plawolf Brigadier

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    It’s painfully clear from that post that you have effectively zero understanding of the actual situations on the ground.

    Hostile natural terrain is only an advantage to the defender if the locals are already used to living in such conditions to start with.

    If anyone is stupid enough to send Taiwan’s conscripted city boys with minimal training into its hostile interior, the terrain will kill them more effectively than the PLA.

    Any insurgency needs supplies. Vietnam worked because they had the USSR and China supplying them with all the arms, munitions and other war goods they needed to sustain the insurgency.

    Same deal with Afghanistan (both times) and Iraq.

    What are your insurgent army going to eat and fight with in the mountains and jungles? You plan to hide farms and armament factories in those magical mountains also?

    The only way Taiwan could hope to cost China militarily is cityfighting.

    Even though Iraqi and Syrian cities are villages compared to Taiwan’s bustling metropolis, the battles fought in the ME does give a taste of what cityfighting in a modern city might be like.

    In all likelihood, the costs of doing so would be significant on all fronts, be it in terms of casualties for the attacker, civilian losses, and damage to Taiwan’s economic and industrial capability.

    But you are fundamentally misunderstand China’s position on Taiwan if you think pride, economic/industrial output and strategic positioning is China’s only or even primary motivation for never allowing Taiwan’s independence.

    Whatever the price, if it came down to it, China would be willing to pay it. This isn’t just the position of China’s leadership, but also the will of the Chinese people.

    In that respects, even cityfighting does not serve as much of a deterrent to the PLA, especially if they do not care about the economic and industrial worth of those cities.

    The PLA could surround the cities, allow safe passage for all civilians to evacuate to refugee camps, and just systematically flatten the cities with artillery afterwards.

    Such a move would actually even be beneficial to China in terms of the long term pacification of the island, as the civilian population of Taiwan could be scattered throughout China for re-housing, as it would take years or even decades to rebuild.

    Scattered, and integrated into the local communities, no insurgence could hope to develop. Such a move would also effectively erase any notion of a ‘Taiwanese’ identity, and once the new cities are built to replace those destroyed, Beijing will get to decide who goes in to repopulate them.

    The only way Taiwan could make cityfighting costly for the PLA is if they refused to allow the civilian population to evacuate, and use them as human shields to prevent the PLA from just shelling them to dust for afar.

    Let’s see RAND put that in one of their recommendations.
     
  2. Jura
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    Jura Lieutenant General

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    put into this thread what I've now noticed which is
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/pol...nt-xi-jinping-gives-army-its-first-order-2019 Chinese President Xi Jinping gives army its first order of 2019: be ready for battle
    • Armed forces must be ready for a ‘comprehensive military struggle from a new starting point’, leader says
    • Central Military Commission issues new guidelines to boost morale based on greater empathy and merit-based promotions
    UPDATED : Saturday, 05 January, 2019, 1:29pm
     
  3. mr.bean
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    mr.bean Junior Member

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    jesus you're joking right? Singapore as a reliable mediator for the SCS?? hahahahaha.....my god.
     
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  4. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    Easiest way is to bomb Taiwan power plant and TSMC would shut down and Taiwan Economy would be over.
    China would open the floodgate and absorb all TSMC engineers.

    No need for costly invasion or blockade.
     
  5. advill
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    advill Junior Member

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    Have you not read/heard (or you are myopic?) that the UN has recently given credit to Singapore for its mediating initiatives. The Asian Way of Mediation is thru' quiet but effective diplomacy. This is unlike the Western mediators who can be very brash, arrogant & most times unsuccessful - Look at what has happened in the ME? .... Israel & the Palestinians...... All smoke NO effective results.
     
  6. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/chi...-before-threatening-to-attack-americans.print
    By Jerry Hendrix

    But make no mistake: Any attack upon a single U.S. aircraft carrier by long-range aircraft, cruise missiles or ballistic missiles would surely generate a response against the bases from which those weapons were launched, the sensors associated with them and the command-and-control nodes that directed them, and then the United States would turn its attention on the Chinese naval and merchant fleet.



    What is he talking about? The retaliation force that will attack mainland targets?
    If CHina capable of sinking two carriers, what retaliation forces US will summon to knock out mainland targets???
    F22, SSN? B2? By themselves i think they also vulnerable to be attacked by PLA.
     
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  7. Jura
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    Jura Lieutenant General

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    noted
    China could occupy more areas in WPS — expert warns https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/01/06/1882692/china-could-occupy-more-areas-wps-expert-warns
     
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  8. Biscuits
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    Biscuits Junior Member
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    I doubt it would come down to city fighting. ROC does not have enough committed/fanaticist soldiers for that.

    Honestly I don’t think it wouldn’t even take PLA effort except in disarming captured munitions.

    PAP just need to rush in and arrest the ringleaders, then the whole place fall apart.

    The major risk is the missiles pointed at mainland cities but missile defense could take care of those.
     
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  9. getready
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    getready Junior Member

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    Singapore as mediator for SCS is not gonna happen. LHL himself has chided china for her SCS activities in his speeches. One of them I believe was even made in china's arch enemy japan. The chinese leadership will remember that.
     
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  10. Jura
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    Jura Lieutenant General

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    LOL! your Taiwan invasion by cops is close to the top of the SDF
    hooey
    (or trolling)
     
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