China's SCS Strategy Thread

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Look at the map people, the Indian Andaman Islands are right on the other side. India is part of the Quad. Canal through Thailand is a completely waste of money

India has a common border with China lest they forget 1962 they are not going to do anything to provoke China
If they are foolish enough to do it China can easily severe the chicken neck And it will seperate India from Assam
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Here are the pro and con of Kra Canal.I believe 1677 date is typo error Ferdinand de Lesseps didn't live in 17th century. I can't find anything on the De lamar

Thailand's Kra Canal : A Game Changer
by
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Published November 08, 2017 - 17:10 Jkt


The idea of developing Kra Canal, otherwise known as the Thai Canal or the Kra Isthmus Canal, through the narrow southern end of Thailand was actually proposed over 200 years ago

However, due to uncertain reasons of economic, political, investment or capital during those years, this proposed project was rejected and any further discussion or action terminated.

Now, it is reported recently that China and Thailand are planning to continue with this project for more practical reasons that cover economic, safety and trade.

Although this canal issue has widely been discussed by maritime players, such as policy makers, regulators, and shipping and port operators, it seems that the idea of developing the Kra Canal is most welcome due to the great savings in costs, higher levels of safety and shortened distance compared to the journey via the Strait of Malacca.

Seasia looks forward to the construction of this new development that is believed to certainly change the landscape of maritime transportation in the region, if not the world, herewith are information that we gathered for the readers.

Kra Canal to have huge security and social implications |
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According to the latest study conducted by the
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, following are the 10 global implications resultant of the proposed Kra Canal:

1. The canal will provide an alternative route in lieu of the congested Strait of Malacca.

2. Voyage distances can be reduced by 1,200 km and voyage time by 2 to 5 days, thus allowing for higher vessel utilisation.

3. The estimated bunker savings for a 100,000 dwt oil tanker is $350,000 per trip.

4. Bulk shipments (e.g. oil tankers) that are chartered for direct shore to shore voyages will benefit the most.

5. Large container ships that must make frequent stops may not benefit as much - vessel capacity may not be sufficiently utilised when skipping ports in Southeast Asia.

6. Thailand may greatly benefit from the canal toll fees, port facility charges and development in the surrounding area.

7. Eighty percent of China’s oil goes through the Strait of Malacca; the Kra Canal may reduce shipping costs and reliance on the Strait and also minimise the threat of the blockade of the strait.

8. Singapore’s status as a maritime transhipment hub may be negatively affected with vessels bypassing the Malacca Strait altogether.

9. The ports in Hong Kong and China stand to gain from the traffic diverted from Singapore.The cost of using the canal will be a key factor.

10. The cost of using the canal will be a key factor.

The rail canal idea would see ships carried by rail across Thailand’s south.
Although many concerns raised among the shipping players and the environmentalists which include the issue of the capacity of the Strait of Malacca in that it is unable to accommodate more than 122,600 vessels per year, security (piracy) at the Strait of Malacca and the dredging and development activities in the surrounding area of the canal, there are still many other factors that motivate support for the development of the Kra Canal.

The realization of this gigantic infrastructure project is somehow also known as soon-to-be the Chinese Panama Canal.

As listed by
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, herewith are the reasons why:

1. Kra Canal is being developed since 1677!

Similar to Panama Canal, history of the Kra Canal is vast and holds a lot of value to Importers and Exporters located in the region of South China Sea and beyond.

The first time this idea cropped was as far back as 1677 when Thai King Narai asked the French engineer de Lamar to survey the possibility of building a channel to connect Songkhla with Marid aka Myanmar to cut short the time for traders.

2. Geography-wise, it is one of the toughest terrains to build a Canal

More fondly known as Kra Isthmus, the land bridge is shared by the countries of Thailand on the East and Myanmar on the West. Lying to the west of the Isthmus is the Andaman Sea, while the Gulf of Thailand falls on the East Side of the river.

The Isthmus of Panama also is also located very strategically, connecting the continents of North and South America.

3. A Game Changer for Southeast Asia

A canal located in the vicinity of Thailand could enable Larger Transport carriers to transport cargo via India, China and Japan instead of using the Strait of Malacca, thereby boosting the Thailand and Chinese Economy.

Currently, 94000 vessels pass each year through the Strait of Malacca, which is roughly equivalent to one-fourth of the World’s Traded Goods.

An estimated 15.2 million barrels of oil was passed through the Strait in 2011, which is largely controlled by western Countries.

The Panama Canal is currently of far greater strategic value to the United States with an estimated 15000 vessels passing through the canal every year. And up till 2009, 333.7 million tonnes had been transported via the Canal.

4. It could be one of the Greatest Engineering Feats of the 21st Century

The stakes are very high and while the infrastructure is well backed by the bulging Chinese Economy, there are many technological, environmental and political issues which have to be addressed.

The estimated cost is a whopping US$28-30 billion and will take 10-12 years to complete the entire project. An estimated 5000 people during the initial stages will have to be employed as well.

The Panama Canal also had to go through a tremendous amount of obstacles before it could be built. Ranging from French Ownership to the development of the Canal undertaken by the US, and Volatile Political Climates.

Kra canal would be a big win for China & Thailand

Great loss for India, US, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar & Pakistan.

Advantages :

  • A complete sea route to Industrial zones in the east coast china
  • Cost of shipping through water is cost effective than through Land
  • Direct threat to Indian Navy in IOR

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I think what Duterte said make sense why created friction when China has defacto possession of SCS It only aggravate tension and agitate China preventing the conclusion of ASEAN-China Code of conduct.
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Duterte says China 'already in possession' of South China Sea, tells US to end military drills
yq-rodrigod-15112018_2x_2x.jpg

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said should war erupt in the South China Sea, "my country will be the first to suffer".PHOTO: AFP
PUBLISHED
4 HOURS AGO
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SINGAPORE - President Rodrigo Duterte said on Thursday (Nov 15) China was "already in possession" of the South China Sea, and that military drills by the United States and its allies were creating "frictions" that were derailing efforts to settle rows over these waters between Beijing and its neighbours.

"China is already in possession (of the South China Sea). It's now in their hands. So why do you have to create frictions… that will prompt a response from China?" Mr Duterte told reporters on the sidelines of the Asean Summit in Singapore.

"China is there," he added. "That's a reality, and America and everybody should realise that they are there."

He said should war erupt in the South China Sea, "my country will be the first to suffer". He pointed out that the Philippines has a mutual defence treaty with the US.

China claims most of the South China Sea, where US$3 trillion (S$4.1 trillion) in sea-borne traffic pass every year.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have conflicting claims with China in parts of the South China Sea.

Mr Duterte said conflicts over the South China Sea could best be settled through talks between China and Asean, without the US and its allies turning up the heat through displays of force as "freedom of navigation exercises".

"Everything's been excellent between China and the rest of Asean, except for the fact that there's friction between Western nations and China," he told reporters.

He cited, in particular, a long, drawn-out process to negotiate a "code of conduct" that Asean and China hope to conclude in three years.

The code was "needed at all cost", he said.

The Philippines is this year's coordinator between Asean and China.

Far from dialing down, however, the US is preparing to build up its forces in the region and increase patrols in the South China Sea, said National Security Adviser John Bolton.

"Countries of South-east Asia don't want to be dominated by any external actor, and we support that," he told reporters.


Coinciding with US Vice-President Mike Pence's presence at the Asean Summit, two US aircraft carriers with around 150 fighter jets were
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, in a show of force in waters south of China.

The two carriers, the Japan-based USS Ronald Reagan and the USS John C Stennis deployed from the US West coast, were carrying out air, surface and anti-submarine warfare operations, the US Seventh Fleet said in a news statement.

The USS Reagan also took part in the biggest war games ever staged in and around Japan this month, involving dozens of US and Japanese ships, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of military personnel.

Mr Duterte has pivoted towards China and away from the US, the Philippines' long-time ally, since he took office in 2016, as he courted investments from Beijing to push Philippine growth through an ambitious, US$169-billion infrastructure-building programme.

His relations with the US have been strained by criticisms from the US State Department of his brutal war on drugs, which had left at least 4,000 suspects dead in its wake.

Mr Duterte has barred the Philippine navy from joining US patrols across the South China Sea, saying he did not want to provoke China.

He has also ordered the Philippine military to scale down its joint exercises with US forces and to avoid holding these near waters China is claiming, again in deference to Beijing's position.

But he allowed Philippine forces to join a "tabletop" simulated exercise between China and all 10 members of Asean in August.

China's leader Xi Jinping is
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for a one-day visit that, among others, is
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to explore billions of dollars' worth of oil and gas reserves beneath contested waters in the South China Sea.

Philippine and Chinese officials are also working to close at least two deals while Mr Xi is in the Philippines: a 175.3 billion-peso, 640km railway from Manila to the tip of the main island of Luzon; and a 12.2 billion-peso dam.

In all, the Philippines is lining up 18 projects it seeks to fund with some 750 billion pesos worth of Chinese loans and grants.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
An interesting view from Heydarian in Manila.

Malaysia’s bold play against China

Richard Javad Heydarian is a Manila-based author, academic and columnist. His latest book is “The Rise of Duterte: A Populist Revolt Against Elite Democracy.”

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — In the coming days, as world leaders travel to Singapore for the annual Southeast Asian summit, China will likely have a rather unpleasant development on its mind: increasing pushback across Southeast Asia of its growing economic influence, led by none other than Malaysia, a traditionally China-friendly nation.

Read more
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But it's contradicted by statements like this

Dr M predicts Chinese yuan will replace USD as trade currency

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 3 — Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said today he will not be surprised if the Chinese yuan takes over the United States dollar as a global trading currency.
...
“So one day they may decide that if you want to buy, you have to use the Chinese currency. And you will have no choice, you will have to use Chinese currency. I don’t know how long we can resist, but it will come one day,” Dr Mahathir said.

Read more
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I think what Duterte said make sense why created friction when China has defacto possession of SCS It only aggravate tension and agitate China preventing the conclusion of ASEAN-China Code of conduct.
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Duterte says China 'already in possession' of South China Sea, tells US to end military drills
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said should war erupt in the South China Sea, "my country will be the first to suffer".PHOTO: AFP
PUBLISHED
4 HOURS AGO
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SINGAPORE - President Rodrigo Duterte said on Thursday (Nov 15) China was "already in possession" of the South China Sea, and that military drills by the United States and its allies were creating "frictions" that were derailing efforts to settle rows over these waters between Beijing and its neighbours.

"China is already in possession (of the South China Sea). It's now in their hands. So why do you have to create frictions… that will prompt a response from China?" Mr Duterte told reporters on the sidelines of the Asean Summit in Singapore.

"China is there," he added. "That's a reality, and America and everybody should realise that they are there."

He said should war erupt in the South China Sea, "my country will be the first to suffer". He pointed out that the Philippines has a mutual defence treaty with the US.

China claims most of the South China Sea, where US$3 trillion (S$4.1 trillion) in sea-borne traffic pass every year.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have conflicting claims with China in parts of the South China Sea.

Mr Duterte said conflicts over the South China Sea could best be settled through talks between China and Asean, without the US and its allies turning up the heat through displays of force as "freedom of navigation exercises".

"Everything's been excellent between China and the rest of Asean, except for the fact that there's friction between Western nations and China," he told reporters.

He cited, in particular, a long, drawn-out process to negotiate a "code of conduct" that Asean and China hope to conclude in three years.

The code was "needed at all cost", he said.

The Philippines is this year's coordinator between Asean and China.

Far from dialing down, however, the US is preparing to build up its forces in the region and increase patrols in the South China Sea, said National Security Adviser John Bolton.

"Countries of South-east Asia don't want to be dominated by any external actor, and we support that," he told reporters.


Coinciding with US Vice-President Mike Pence's presence at the Asean Summit, two US aircraft carriers with around 150 fighter jets were
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, in a show of force in waters south of China.

The two carriers, the Japan-based USS Ronald Reagan and the USS John C Stennis deployed from the US West coast, were carrying out air, surface and anti-submarine warfare operations, the US Seventh Fleet said in a news statement.

The USS Reagan also took part in the biggest war games ever staged in and around Japan this month, involving dozens of US and Japanese ships, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of military personnel.

Mr Duterte has pivoted towards China and away from the US, the Philippines' long-time ally, since he took office in 2016, as he courted investments from Beijing to push Philippine growth through an ambitious, US$169-billion infrastructure-building programme.

His relations with the US have been strained by criticisms from the US State Department of his brutal war on drugs, which had left at least 4,000 suspects dead in its wake.

Mr Duterte has barred the Philippine navy from joining US patrols across the South China Sea, saying he did not want to provoke China.

He has also ordered the Philippine military to scale down its joint exercises with US forces and to avoid holding these near waters China is claiming, again in deference to Beijing's position.

But he allowed Philippine forces to join a "tabletop" simulated exercise between China and all 10 members of Asean in August.

China's leader Xi Jinping is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
for a one-day visit that, among others, is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
to explore billions of dollars' worth of oil and gas reserves beneath contested waters in the South China Sea.

Philippine and Chinese officials are also working to close at least two deals while Mr Xi is in the Philippines: a 175.3 billion-peso, 640km railway from Manila to the tip of the main island of Luzon; and a 12.2 billion-peso dam.

In all, the Philippines is lining up 18 projects it seeks to fund with some 750 billion pesos worth of Chinese loans and grants.
An interesting view from Heydarian in Manila.

But it's contradicted by statements like this

These specific SEA countries and ASEAN overall are non-aligned which means they will try to play the major powers to their own benefit, they have also long been keen to be on the de-colonization path. The US and other Western countries have been and are much much more interventionist and colonialist than the PRC, they are also much further removed geographically and have proven that they are glad to leave a mess where they don't have to bear the brunt of the consequences. SEA countries and ASEAN will always hedge their bets but won't choose unnecessary conflict over likely further development.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
US is apparently planning a massive exercise in the pacific, maybe as close as in the SCS and perhaps even violating territorial seas.

How should the PLAN respond? Would a joint counter carrier exercise with the RU navy be a good idea? Pay the Russians back for hosting Vostok 2018 as well.
 

A.Man

Major
US is apparently planning a massive exercise in the pacific, maybe as close as in the SCS and perhaps even violating territorial seas.

How should the PLAN respond? Would a joint counter carrier exercise with the RU navy be a good idea? Pay the Russians back for hosting Vostok 2018 as well.
In response to Vice President Pence's threats, Chinese Foreign Ministry's spokeswoman commented: We don't owe nobody; we don't beg nobody; we don't fear nobody at all!
 

Dizasta1

Senior Member
This whole US led war games in the North Atlantic and Pacific is starting look comical. Amusing when Russia is heavily investing Gas Pipelines around the world Siberia for Chinese supplies, Nord Stream for Europe, Turk-Stream for Anatolia and China with BRI infrastructure development. The only state which is beating the war drums and calling on NATO states to spend on their militaries is America. That tells us a lot about where a country's priorities really are. Ironically, American veterans are the most neglected they have been in the history of the country. So y'all can have your insanely expensive war games, spend more on military, enforce economic sanctions and trade wars on countries which wish to trade, invest in infrastructure not only for their territory but for other countries as well. While U.S, which once was the beacon of economic growth, prosperity and valued freedom and justice. Now is a defacto hegemon! It is sad to see what's happened what was suppose to be a country which was suppose to stand for justice. Instead the world is increasingly starting dislike and condemn.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Not that, it was contradicted by this:
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This is really big news if ASEAN declare that large warships are not welcome in ASEAN waters, which would include the SCS.

So the LCS based in Singapore would still be welcome for freedom of navigation purposes, but presumably not anything bigger like destroyers or carriers.

If I look at every country in ASEAN, I can see why they all would agree on such a statement.
Even Vietnam and the Philippines.

The Filipino President has publicly stated that China has already "won" the SCS, and really doesn't want large US warships and Chinese warships butting heads in the SCS and risking a war.
Vietnam has probably come to the same conclusion, along with the other countries.

After all, those bases dominate the sea lanes smack in the middle of the SCS.

So in the event of a US-China conflict, the Chinese military will be trying to keep those sea lanes open, to break any blockade.
In comparison, the US military will be trying to destroy the SCS bases and shut down the sea lanes to blockade China.
But geography means the ASEAN common market needs the sea lanes to stay open, no matter what.

It also reinforces how ASEAN will remain neutral in US-China disputes.
 
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