China's SCS Strategy Thread

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
NOT all Vietnamese felt that way before, today or tomorrow. If they did, the two groups of people would not still be marrying each other and happily having mixed ethnic children while still sharing a lot of similar culture. The hatred from others were brainwashed by the upper ruling class who thinks they are the original masters and know what's good for the Vietnamese people. It's a tribal attitude that don't belong in today's 21st century.

The Vietnamese commmunist party does have the power to eliminate anti Chinese portrayals at school and in the media. It is still a communist hierarchy that has this power, if the politburo decide to do it.

Over time, that would mean a population with a much different attitude.

Otherwise the Vietnamese government is going to be really trapped in its dealings with China
 

sanblvd

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Vietnamese commmunist party does have the power to eliminate anti Chinese portrayals at school and in the media. It is still a communist hierarchy that has this power, if the politburo decide to do it.

Over time, that would mean a population with a much different attitude.

Otherwise the Vietnamese government is going to be really trapped in its dealings with China

Ok we need to stop Vietnam bashing and get back on topic, so this is my last reply.

Just like many people claims that in China they still teach about Japanese's action in WW2 to use nationalism to unify the people, its the same thing in Vietnam, they are teaching Anti-China to their people to keep the people unified, because we both know sure has hell that "Communism" ideology has no hold anymore.

So yes Vietnam can make a conscious effort to stop bash China to much to reduce the tension but they are not doing it for the obvious reasons, also during the last riot it was actually the government that had to tone down the hate and break up the chaos and many people were criticizing the government for being a Chinese stooge... aka blow back.

So who knows, the company that I worked for was doing research about opening a factory in SE Asia, Vietnam was one of the candidates, I talk them out of it, we are opening in Malaysia instead.
 
LOL what is wrong with Poland?
off-topic question, so is the answer June 14, 2011
China group sees collapse of Poland ambitions
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A high-profile attempt by China to break into the European transport infrastructure market has turned into a fiasco after Poland cancelled a controversial highway contract with a Chinese company midway through construction.

It was the first Chinese company to win such a large European highway contract and had hoped to use the project as a calling card to gain other business in the region.

However, the company – a subsidiary of China Railway Group, one of Asia's largest construction and engineering companies – quickly ran into financial difficulties once construction got under way and halted work in May. Poland’s road building authority cancelled the contract on Monday.

The collapse of the contract is an embarrassment for Donald Tusk, Polish prime minister. Mr Tusk had pledged to complete the highway before next summer’s European soccer championships, which Poland is co-hosting with Ukraine.

Opposition parties have seized the opportunity to attack the prime minister with relish, hoping to dent his popularity before this autumn's parliamentary elections.

Covec won the contract after presenting an extremely low bid, coming in at less than 50 per cent of the 2.8bn zlotys ($1bn) budgeted by the government. The bid prompted complaints from rivals, who said the Chinese were price dumping because it was impossible to build so cheaply.

Germany’s Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations, an industry body, had alleged last year that state-owned Chinese companies were securing contracts in the region “via price-dumping, aggressive financing and generous risk-guarantees”.

Warsaw and Brussels rejected the highway objections. However, in the event Covec quickly ran into financial difficulties, delaying payments to subcontractors and claiming the road building authority was itself late paying. The agency denies the claim.

Covec recently tried to renegotiate the contract, saying raw materials were unexpectedly expensive and that it had been unfairly treated. But the government rejected the move, saying it could open the way for similar negotiations from companies building hundreds of kilometres of roads around the country.

Covec on Monday issued a statement saying it was ready to resume work, but at a cost. However, speaking on local television, Andrzej Majewski, deputy director of the General Directorate for National Roads and Motorways, said: “One has to finish the contract which was agreed, for the price that was agreed, with the conditions that have been described.”

The agency is demanding 741m zlotys in damages from Covec, and is in talks with 16 companies with a view to restarting construction by the end of July.

The government is now aiming for the road to be “drivable” rather than complete in time for the soccer tournament’s opening match in Warsaw in June 2012. “Drivable means safe,” said Cezary Grabarczyk, the embattled infrastructure minister. “Work will be continuing on embankments.”
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
off-topic question, so is the answer June 14, 2011
China group sees collapse of Poland ambitions
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The government is now aiming for the road to be “drivable” rather than complete in time for the soccer tournament’s opening match in Warsaw in June 2012. “Drivable means safe,” said Cezary Grabarczyk, the embattled infrastructure minister. “Work will be continuing on embankments.”
This last paragraph don't make sense. When any road is "COMPLETED" that means it is drivable.o_O
 
the part of

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying's Regular Press Conference on August 31, 2017
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relevant here:

Q: I want to ask if China has issued the demand to Indonesia that it stop maritime delimitation talks with Vietnam and stop calling part of the South China Sea that is in its Economic Elusive Zone the North Natuna Sea?

A: Let me reiterate our principled position on the South China Sea issue. Regarding the territorial sovereignty dispute and maritime delimitation issue between China and some ASEAN member states, we would like to properly resolve them through bilateral consultation and dialogue, and that is also what we have been doing. In the meantime, China would like to work with ASEAN to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea. For the specific question you raised, we hope that relevant countries could bear in mind the broad picture of bilateral relations and peace and stability in the South China Sea, and act with prudence. We would remain in close communication with relevant countries and work together to sustain the positive momentum in stabilizing and improving the South China Sea situation.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Now didnt we have discussion sometime ago how all Vietnamese hate. Well it is not so clear cut Chinese Tv drama and serials are extremely popular in Vietnam. They idolized Chinese starlet and actresses and following their fashion and life just like Holywood star in the west
Saigon has one of the largest Hoa(Chinese) people .They are consider the upper class and resented for that This is the same all over SEA

There are 14000 student in Guangxi

Intermarry is heavy

 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
Actually China/Vietnam relation was very good before. However, Vietnam always try to invade Laos/Cambodia that China can not tolerate. The SCS is a rather recent development.

For the future it is up to the people to develop a full picture of the relation. Both governments tried hard to deescalate when things happen. Remember, the Vietnam immigrants in US are mostly anti-government. Getting too close to US has its price.
 
the part relevant to this thread from
Defense Ministry's Regular Press Conference on August 31
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:

Question: Four major accidents have taken place involving the U.S. Pacific Fleet since the beginning of this year. According to foreign media reports, Air Force Gen. Terrence J. O'Shaughnessy, the U.S. Pacific Air Force Commander, said on August 25 that the recent accidents in the Asia-Pacific region would not interrupt U.S. military’s “freedom of navigation” activities in the South China Sea. What is your comment?

Answer: We are as always opposed to the so-called “freedom of navigation” activities conducted by the U.S. military in the South China Sea. We are deeply concerned about the frequent occurrence of severe safety accidents involving the U.S. Navy ships, which poses great negative impacts on the freedom and safety of navigation in the South China Sea.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
CSIS analysis on SCS trade

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It's a little confusing, but if I'm reading this correctly then

1. They estimate that $3370 Billion worth of goods pass through the SCS, rather than the $5300 Billion figure previously cited.

2. Of this total, $1842 Billion is directly related to China, which would mean that China has more trade passing through the SCS than everyone else combined. (The $1842 Billion figure comes from the combined China+HongKong total. Numbers are 598+874 plus 230+140)

Therefore China has a keen interest in maintaining commercial freedom of navigation in the SCS.

----

The other key statistic is below

SCS trade as a % of all trade (Top Ten)

Vietnam - 86%
Indonesia - 85%
Thailand - 74%
Singapore - 66%
Malaysia - 58%
South Korea - 47%
China - 39%
Hong Kong - 37%
Japan - 19%
Germany - 9%

So in summary

1. The smaller littoral nations of the SCS (Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia) depend on the free flow of SCS shipping much more than China does.
2. But China simply dominates the trade flows in the SCS through sheer volume.
3. The USA only has a minor trading interest in the SCS. ($208 Billion out of $3370 Billion, rather than the $1200 Billion figure of $5300 billion previously cited. That is a huge difference)


I don't know when this was released exactly, but these results are a huge deal in any authoritative analysis of the SCS.
 
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AndrewS

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The CSIS report then it tries to look at what would happen if the Malacca, Sunda and/or Lombok straits were to be closed and trade rerouted, but that is much more difficult to quantify.

But let's look to the future

China continues to grow at 6.5%+, which is faster than the every other Top-10 trader in the SCS. So we can expect China's importance in SCS trade to grow even more.

The dependence of the littoral SCS nations on maritime shipping also means they will oppose any party that tries to shut down SCS shipping, whether than be China or the USA or anyone else.

Given the importance of SCS shipping to China (which is at the centre of the Asian Trading network), it would be in China's interest to maintain commercial freedom of navigation in almost every scenario, barring a direct conflict with one of the littoral SCS nations.

Note that in the event of a US-China conflict elsewhere, it would be in the economic interests of the littoral SCS nations to support China in stopping US attempts to blockade China and shut down shipping in the SCS.

It's nice to finally have some numbers to back up this analysis.

This geo-economic situation is driving China's expansion of its Navy, Coast Guard and the SCS islands.
 
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