China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

ASEAN accept the reality on the ground of Chinese present in SCS to the disappointment of warmonger and self serving agenda of outside party

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ASEAN accepting South China Sea as China's lake, says analyst

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(philstar.com) | Updated April 29, 2017 - 9:42pm
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Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations gather for a plenary session of the biyearly summit in Manila, Philippines on Saturday, April 29, 2017. An Australian analyst said that despite the progress ministers of southeast Asian nations perceive the South China Sea had effectively become Beijing's "lake." ASEAN50/Released
MANILA, Philippines — A draft Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) chairman statement shows that the regional bloc is gradually accepting that the South China Sea has become "China's lake," an analyst said.

Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor at University of New South Wales in Canberra, said that President Rodrigo Duterte, as this year's ASEAN chair, missed the opportunity to insert a reference to the ruling issued by a United Nations-backed tribunal on the disputed waters.

"In sum, although some ASEAN ministers feel progress is being made on managing maritime disputes in the South China Sea, the reality is that ASEAN is gradually accepting that the South China Sea has become China’s lake," Thayer said in an analysis released by his firm.


The draft statement dropped any mention of "non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of all activities including land reclamation" which was included in last year's chairman's statement.

"We shared the serious concerns expressed by some leaders over recent developments and escalation of activities in the area which may further raise tensions and erode trust and confidence in the region," the current draft read.

Thayer noted that Duterte's statement noted the importance of a full and effective implementation of the Declaration on Conduct of Parties (DOC) in the South China Sea, which has been said before.

A new development this year is that Duterte pointed out a "significant process" on a framework for the code of conduct in the South China Sea.

"First, the draft states that ASEAN welcomed the cooperation and constructive dialogue on maritime issues of common interest and concern, including search and rescue, maritime capacity building, crimes at sea, maritime scientific research, maritime security and piracy," Thayer said.

The draft statement, however, does not mention safety of navigation and communication at sea which was included in the 2002 DOC.

"Duterte’s draft notes the urgency to continue the development of linkages in maritime security and cooperation under the domain of the ASEAN Maritime Forum, Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum, ASEAN Regional Forum and the ASEAN Defense Minister’s Meeting," the analyst said.

These ASEAN-related bodies, on the other hand, have not effectively addressed Chinese activities in the South China Sea.

The chairman's statement this year weakened the 10-member regional bloc's resistance against Chinese expansionism in the contested waters.

Duterte earlier said that there is no point in pressing China to comply with the international tribunal's ruling and stressed that it is not an issue in the ASEAN.

Accommodating China?
With the changes to the draft that had happened in the past few days it was clear that Duterte, this year’s chairman of the leaders’ meeting being hosted in Manila, was attempting to accommodate China’s demand to remove or water down references to issues Beijing was quite sensitive to, Thayer said.

The expert argued the president’s statement noted the urgency to continue linking in terms of maritime security and cooperation under the domain of the ASEAN Maritime Forum, Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum, ASEAN Regional Forum and ASEAN Defense Minister’s Meeting, none of these bodies had effectively addressed Chinese construction and militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea.

Thayer said that the current draft closely followed last year’s statement, dropping any mention of “non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of all activities including land reclamation.” These words were replaced by “and escalation of activities in the area,” according to Thayer.

According to Thayer, the statement notes “serious concerns expressed by some leaders over recent developments.” — with Audrey Morallo

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Well finally cool head and pragmatism prevail. Working together is better than fighting

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ASEAN gives Beijing a pass on South China Sea dispute, cites 'improving cooperation'
By Manuel Mogato | MANILA

Southeast Asian countries took a softer stance on South China Sea disputes during a weekend summit, according to a statement issued on Sunday, which went easy on China by avoiding tacit references to its building and arming of its manmade islands.

A chairman's statement of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) was released about 12 hours after the summit ended, and dropped references to "land reclamation and militarization" included in the text issued at last year's meeting, and in an earlier, unpublished version seen by Reuters on Saturday.

The outcome follows what two ASEAN diplomats on Saturday said were efforts by Chinese foreign ministry and embassy officials to pressure ASEAN chair the Philippines to keep Beijing's contentious activities in the strategic waterway off ASEAN's official agenda.

It also indicates four ASEAN members who the diplomats said had wanted a firmer position had agreed to the statement's more conciliatory tone.

China is not a member of the 10-member bloc and did not attend the summit but is extremely sensitive about the content of its statements. It has often been accused of trying to influence the drafts to muzzle what it sees as dissent and challenges to its sweeping sovereignty claim.

China's embassy in Manila could not be reached and its foreign ministry did not respond to request for comment on Saturday.

The statement also noted "the improving cooperation between ASEAN and China", and did not include references to "tensions" or "escalation of activities" seen in earlier drafts and in last year's text. It noted, without elaborating, some leaders' concerns about "recent developments" in the strategic, resource-rich waterway

A Philippine diplomat said it was an open secret that China tries to lean on ASEAN members to protect its interests, but that was not the reason for the unusual delay in issuing the statement.

"There are one or two member countries which lobbied for some changes in some text in the statement, but not related to the South China Sea," the source said.

Beijing has reacted angrily to individual members expressing their concern about its rapid reclamation of reefs in the Spratlys and its installation of missile systems on them.

Another ASEAN diplomat said the statement was a genuine representation of the atmosphere of the Manila meetings.

"We respected the Philippines' views and cooperated," the diplomat said. "It clearly reflected how the issue was discussed."

POINTLESS TO PRESSURE

The softened statement comes as the current ASEAN chairman, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, seeks to bury the hatchet with China after years of wrangling over its maritime assertiveness. After lobbying from Duterte, China agreed to let Filipinos back to the rich fishing ground of the Scarborough Shoal following a four-year blockade.

The no-nonsense leader set the tone for the meeting on Thursday when he said it was pointless discussing China's maritime activities, because no one dared to pressure Beijing anyway.

As a sign of Duterte's friendship with Beijing, three Chinese navy vessels on Sunday made a rare visit to the Philippines. Duterte will inspect a guided-missile destroyer in his hometown of Davao on Monday.

Duterte's foreign policy strategy is a stunning reversal of that of the previous administration, which had close ties with the United States and was seen by China as a nuisance.

That Philippines government in 2013 challenged Beijing by lodging a case with the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2013.

Two weeks into Duterte's presidency last year, the Hague court ruled in favor of the Philippines, angering China. But Duterte has made it clear he would not press Beijing to comply anytime soon, and is more interested in doing business than sparring.

The final chairman's statement issued made no mention to the arbitration case. However, it did include in a section separate to the South China Sea chapter the need to show "full respect for legal and diplomatic processes" in resolving disputes.

Underlining Beijing's sensitivity about the arbitration award, the two diplomatic sources on Saturday said Chinese embassy officials had lobbied behind the scenes for that sentence to be dropped, and considered it a veiled reference to the ruling.

One diplomat indicated that ongoing moves between China and ASEAN to draft a framework for negotiating a maritime code of conduct may have been a factor in agreeing the softened statement.

All sides want to complete the framework this year, although there is some scepticism that China's would agree to a set of rules that could impact its geostrategic interests.

(Writing by Martin Petty; Editing by Lincoln Feast)

 

[Hendrik_2000]

What an event reversal. Not too long ago China Phillipine relation was at the bottom of the barrel
But look it now

Wearing a hat bearing the logo of 052 C type destroyer "Changchun" president President Duterte visited the ship. Here is the video

 

[Janiz]

Not too long ago China Phillipine relation was at the bottom of the barrel
But look it now

I'm looking... And???

Duterte doing those things means nothing. He already showed that what he speaks in front of the cameras can be 180 degrees from what he does behind closed doors.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

I'm looking... And???

Duterte doing those things means nothing. He already showed that what he speaks in front of the cameras can be 180 degrees from what he does behind closed doors.

Did you even bother to read the 2 article that I posted above?
Deed speak louder than word. The fact remain ASEAN accept the reality on the ground of Chinese present in SCS to the disappointment of warmonger and self serving agenda of outside party.

No need for outside interference. Asian know how to live with strong China . They have been for hundred of year. Thai still speak thai, Vietnamese still speak Vietminh language. So do 56 minorities of China
Now how many Cherokee or Iraquois or Mohawk still speak their languages?

It is only befit the Navy visit to Mindanao because Mindanao is the seat of ancient Sulu kingdom that has relation with China hundred of years ago

 

[Equation]

What an event reversal. Not too long ago China Phillipine relation was at the bottom of the barrel
But look it now

Wearing a hat bearing the logo of 052 C type destroyer "Changchun" president President Duterte visited the ship. Here is the video

There's a cute Filipino female sailor to his right shoulder there.

 

[Janiz]

No need for outside interference. Asian know how to live with strong China . They have been for hundred of year.

For hundreds of years China didn't bother with grabbing new land because there was nothing interesting for them there. Now the expansion and territorial disputes between China and it's neighbours are about oil. This thing had never happened and it's unknown whether PRC will simply use military might or they will use it only against those who oppose. Because they aren't building new ships to bring peace all over the world. That's for sure.

So do 56 minorities of China

Stop here because I'm 100% sure that you're aware how Beijing deals with 'minorities' that are bigger than 3 villages. Putting loads of Han Chinese and getting rid of traditions are main tools. I think I don't have to bring examples to the table?

 

[Equation]

For hundreds of years China didn't bother with grabbing new land because there was nothing interesting for them there. Now the expansion and territorial disputes between China and it's neighbours are about oil. This thing had never happened and it's unknown whether PRC will simply use military might or they will use it only against those who oppose. Because they aren't building new ships to bring peace all over the world. That's for sure.Stop here because I'm 100% sure that you're aware how Beijing deals with 'minorities' that are bigger than 3 villages. Putting loads of Han Chinese and getting rid of traditions are main tools. I think I don't have to bring examples to the table?

If that's true than why are there still 56 minorities in China still existing for such a long time? This midget mentality behavior in regards to "oh the Hans ethnic group will overwhelm us with their numbers" is outdated.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

For hundreds of years China didn't bother with grabbing new land because there was nothing interesting for them there. Now the expansion and territorial disputes between China and it's neighbours are about oil. This thing had never happened and it's unknown whether PRC will simply use military might or they will use it only against those who oppose. Because they aren't building new ships to bring peace all over the world. That's for sure.Stop here because I'm 100% sure that you're aware how Beijing deals with 'minorities' that are bigger than 3 villages. Putting loads of Han Chinese and getting rid of traditions are main tools. I think I don't have to bring examples to the table?

It has nothing to do with oil. That is western propaganda to diminish Chinese claim on SCS.
The PRC claim is the continuation of Republic of China claim dated back to 1947 when they formally incorporate SCS into Chinese territory. All the western Map like Rand Mc Nally recognized this. But the claim actually has historical root. As they were recorded in history .

Until now China is preoccupied with Civil war, Japanese invasion, GLF, cultural revolution, Economic development , Simple fact that China was to weak to do anything but be quiet
Now that China has the mean and wherewithal to actually enforce the claim of course they act upon it . There is nothing secret about it

It is hypocritical that England and other colonial power can claim possession based on Terra Nullius and finder keeper principle But now if the table turn they cry foul

As to China overwhelm their minority beg the question why they still exist hundred of year after the Conquest.
The truth is the minority have choice to assimilate or moved. Some of them choose to move to the inland. No wonder that Yunnan and Guizhou has the largest number of minority
Thai people originated in Sipsong Banna or Xishuangbanna in Chinese . Some of them following the Mekong moved to what is today Thailand But some stay . They are still there after the Yuan invade Yunnan hundreds year ago. Just go to Dali city.
During the long March the PLA need to ask permission of the local chief to cross their territory. Because of it PRC honor their bargain and leave the minority alone

 

[AndrewS]

For hundreds of years China didn't bother with grabbing new land because there was nothing interesting for them there. Now the expansion and territorial disputes between China and it's neighbours are about oil. This thing had never happened and it's unknown whether PRC will simply use military might or they will use it only against those who oppose. Because they aren't building new ships to bring peace all over the world. That's for sure.Stop here because I'm 100% sure that you're aware how Beijing deals with 'minorities' that are bigger than 3 villages. Putting loads of Han Chinese and getting rid of traditions are main tools. I think I don't have to bring examples to the table?

There are so many things factually incorrect here.

Where did you get the idea that the SCS is primarily about oil? I'd list the reasons in the following order of importance.

1. Solidifying China sovereignty over old pre-existing territorial 'claims'
2. Control over the SCS sea lanes carrying China's imports/exports
3. Control over the SCS sea lanes carrying everyone elses import/exports
3. Then natural resources like fish or oil

---

And on the contrary, in the long-run, China's naval expansion is simply following the precedent set by the British Empire and the American Quasi-Empire when they were the pre-eminent global trading powers, and needed navies to protect seaborne commerce and promote a liberal trading environment.

But now China is the world's largest seaborne trading nation and largest net investor overseas.

And with the abdication of American leadership on free trade and economic globalisation - China is offering (imperfect) leadership based on these principles - and most of the world is accepting that invitation as we can see with the upcoming OBOR conference.

The lesson that China is learning is that economic carrots are generally better than the military stick.