China's SCS Strategy Thread

kf6bka

New Member
Registered Member
I have a problem with this article saying that the deployment is in response to China's warning. The CV deployed a couple of weeks ago and made a port call in Guam. She left on the 5th of January with a planned deployment in WESTPAC. That was well before the US made public it was considering FONOPS and before the Chinese issued warnings. So the article is wrong that it's in response to warnings.

Here is the departure press release on the 5th of January:
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Shaolian

Junior Member
Registered Member
I have a problem with this article saying that the deployment is in response to China's warning. The CV deployed a couple of weeks ago and made a port call in Guam. She left on the 5th of January with a planned deployment in WESTPAC. That was well before the US made public it was considering FONOPS and before the Chinese issued warnings. So the article is wrong that it's in response to warnings.

Here is the departure press release on the 5th of January:
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In which case ties in nicely with Plawolf's assestment in the previous post, that the USN's operations are going to go on irregardless, they just make up the excuses as they go along. That's the way the human world works, I guess. Cheers!
 

Ultra

Junior Member
Now you are revealing yourself what you are. You are the one who want to see U.S. and China to clash to certain death. Also from the notion that you pit China against not only US, but also Japan, Russia and India, I am sure you want China to collapse, but you are willing to sacrifise US first as the only able one. That tells everybody here that you hate China the first, US the second, so much so that you want both dead tomorrow.

I have two suspected places where you may be from. No, it is not suspicion, it is certain. Unfortunately for you, none of the two worth the breathes of U.S. or China so long as they two keep their heads clear which is a given.

Edit: I forgot your "nuke myself" proposal, that nailed where you are.

Reveal myself?
Sure, I am not as DELUSIONAL as some of you. I am in no way hope this will happen, but worse case scenerios are looking more than certain now under current circumstances. You are the one who is the sticking the head in the sand for refusing to see the reality.

The only question you going to ask yourself is, when it happens how many chinese are going to survive this?




Alright, I feel like I am the only sane person here. All of you are delusional and still believe this is not going to happen.

It is HAPPENING.



US carrier starts 'routine' patrols in South China Sea

(CNN)The United States deployed the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson to the disputed waters of the South China Sea on Saturday as part of maritime "routine operations."

Sailing with the 97,000-ton Vinson is the guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer, the Navy said in a statement. The Vinson carries a flight group of more than 60 aircraft, including F/A-18 jet fighters.
The operation comes amid growing tensions between the United States and China over territory and trade, and as
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than its predecessor.

During his confirmation hearing, new Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said China should be blocked from accessing the artificial islands it's built, setting the stage for a potential showdown.


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Did you guys READ THAT?

"Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said China should be blocked from accessing the artificial islands it's built
".

Yeh.

And this is going to be ROUTINE PATROL.
Meaning it is going to be PERMANENT presence. Carrier Strike Groups off China's coast.

And that wasn't a typo, it is going to be Carrier Strike Group(s), they will start patrolling SCS with CSGs and may even start BLOCKADING the islands.

The US knows China can't risk a war FOR NOW. Trump knows this so he will do anything and everything to provoke China into a showdown. If China responded by having its own navy blockade to stop the CSG coming Trump will increase the CSGs to multiples, and if China respond aggressively some of China's subs may "mysteriously sink itself" - it has happened before just look at the fate of KURSK. Things will keep escalate from there.

Basically China going to be forced to eat a bowl of turd.

If you don 't believe me, keep watching. ;)
 

Ultra

Junior Member
I have a problem with this article saying that the deployment is in response to China's warning. The CV deployed a couple of weeks ago and made a port call in Guam. She left on the 5th of January with a planned deployment in WESTPAC. That was well before the US made public it was considering FONOPS and before the Chinese issued warnings. So the article is wrong that it's in response to warnings.

Here is the departure press release on the 5th of January:
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Regardless, that's probably from Obama adminstration's "asian pivot" strategy.

Trump will certainly reinforce that strategy and bring his brand of crazy to the whole thing.
 

Ultra

Junior Member
Those operating costs are largely the same irrespective of whether the carrier is tied up at port or deployed at sea.

Sailors still need to housed, fed and clothed; air crew still need to fly and train etc. USN carriers are all nuclear, so fuel costs for the 'boat' itself doesn't really change.

The biggest cost difference will be fuel costs for the escorts, but that's just small peanuts compared to all the other costs associated with owning the ships. At least as far as the USN is concerned.

For China, long range deployments would cost more per mile, since its ships are all conventionally powered, and they lack foreign bases so all the supplies and fuel need to be carried by replenish ships. But then, it costs a lot of money to run foreign bases.

At the end of the day, to sum up, think of it like this, the USN is like someone who has paid a premium price for an unlimited calls contract, whereas the PLAN is on a (much smaller)pay as you go contract.

The USN has to pay a huge annual fee irresptive of how many calls it makes, whereas the PLAN gets charged a small fee for each call it makes.

As such, it makes sense for the USN to make as many calls as possible, while the PLAN needs to be a lot more rational about whether or not to make a call.

Ultimately, if the PLAN find that they have commitments that require them to make a lot of calls, it might also be worthwhile for them to move to a unlimited calls packaged, which we are starting to see with recent deployments in the Indian Ocean and rumours of nuclear carriers.

But the downside of that is that the navy may be tempted to help create tensions to justify the high frequency of deployments, to justify the huge fixed costs, rather than acccept cost cutting, as we are seeing with the USN to some degree.

Peace and stability are not good for a service with massive costs and no justifiable need for its vast fleets at a time or shrinking defence budgets.



USN can replenish at Singapore. Its not as far as you think.

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And I think US regardless of what Duterte had said will re-engage with him and setting up a fat deal for a US naval base there. Once that's happening it will be pretty hard for China to hold on to the islands when several CSGs are patrolling the SCS.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
USN can replenish at Singapore. Its not as far as you think.

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And I think US regardless of what Duterte had said will re-engage with him and setting up a fat deal for a US naval base there. Once that's happening it will be pretty hard for China to hold on to the islands when several CSGs are patrolling the SCS.
Setting aside the fact poll after poll show the American public want no part of war, especially over rocks in the ECS and SCS, I don't see anyone else in the SCS allowing US to base for a war it initiates against China, especially Singapore. I say that because there's little doubt nations that war on China would be attacked in turn, and Singapore is a tiny city-state with absolutely zero strategic depth. If Trump manufactures a war against China, he would have to go it alone and hope he could control it. Good luck with that.
 

vesicles

Colonel
Setting aside the fact poll after poll show the American public want no part of war, especially over rocks in the ECS and SCS, I don't see anyone else in the SCS allowing US to base for a war it initiates against China, especially Singapore. I say that because there's little doubt nations that war on China would be attacked in turn, and Singapore is a tiny city-state with absolutely zero strategic depth. If Trump manufactures a war against China, he would have to go it alone and hope he could control it. Good luck with that.

History tells us that when there is a war between two giant states, each of which leads a coalition of small states, those two giant states usually focus their efforts on attacking the "small fish" in the opposing coalition. This is obviously an attempt to avoid suffering heavy casualty when the two giant opponents face off against each other.

This was indeed the case during the Korean War, when China spent most its time attacking SK and the US spending most its time attacking NK.

So IF a military conflict begins between the US and China, the best strategy for any small states in the surrounding area would be to stay out of it. What I mean is that they should do everything in their power to stay neutral. Aligning themselves with either side would mean that they will bare the brunt of the attacks from the opposing giant. I don't think anyone in the SCS wants to face that kind of firepower...
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
History tells us that when there is a war between two giant states, each of which leads a coalition of small states, those two giant states usually focus their efforts on attacking the "small fish" in the opposing coalition. This is obviously an attempt to avoid suffering heavy casualty when the two giant opponents face off against each other.

This was indeed the case during the Korean War, when China spent most its time attacking SK and the US spending most its time attacking NK.

So IF a military conflict begins between the US and China, the best strategy for any small states in the surrounding area would be to stay out of it. What I mean is that they should do everything in their power to stay neutral. Aligning themselves with either side would mean that they will bare the brunt of the attacks from the opposing giant. I don't think anyone in the SCS wants to face that kind of firepower...
The SE Asians have a lovely phrase about whether elephants fight or make love, the grass get trampled. In the case of US and China, if the elephants make love, then the grass lose maneuvering space, because the two would likely settle for rules and order that benefit them most, leaving the leftovers to the smaller powers. And if the elephants fight, then the grass are trampled even flatter.

Donald J. Trump, the man who would be king, will find little support from East and SE Asian countries for a war with China, not because they love China and hate Trump, but because it's not in their interests to do so.
 
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