China's SCS Strategy Thread

Blackstone

Brigadier
Freedom of Navigation is authorized by the UN.

Under the United Nations
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Rather lengthy.

The US Navy has been patrolling the Pacific since the end of WWII and will continue to do so.
Freedom of navigation is absolutely legal under international law, and the global norm allows military assets of all nations to operate anytime, anywhere outside legal maritime territory of host states. That means China has the right to operate up to 12mi or islands and coast lines, 3 miles of land features, and 500 meters of artificial islands of France, England, India, etc., and the US has the right to do the same off Mexico, Russia, and China's coasts, islands, rocks, and artificial islands. That is the current global norm, and if China wish to change that, then it could take it to the UN and try and change the laws.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Before Trump was elected President, and even for a few weeks afterwards, there were posters here arguing the man is a business dude and doesn't care about US primacy in Asia. His Secretary of State, Tillerson, should end any fantasy about what US intentions under Trump's regime. Neocons and Liberal Interventionists might finally have their wish for regular confrontations and maybe even a war or two to sustain primacy. These people are playing with fire and they either don't know or don't care. Very alarming development.

China Should Not Have Access to South China Sea Islands, Says Trump Nominee
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for secretary of state set a course for a potentially serious confrontation with Beijing on Wednesday, saying China should be denied access to islands it has built in the contested South China Sea.

In comments expected to enrage Beijing, Rex Tillerson told his confirmation hearing before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee that China's building of islands and putting military assets on those islands was "akin to Russia’s taking Crimea” from Ukraine.

Asked whether he supported a more aggressive posture toward China, he said: “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed.”

The former Exxon Mobil Corp chairman and chief executive did not elaborate on what might be done to deny China access to the islands it has built up from South China Sea reefs, equipped with military-length airstrips and fortified with weapons.Tillerson, former chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil, testifies during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearing on his secretary of state nomination on January 11. Tillerson made conflicting statements about his past lobbying activities during his testimony. Kevin Lamarque/REUTERS

Tillerson also said Washington needed to reaffirm its commitment to Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province, but stopped short of Trump's questioning of Washington's long-standing policy on the issue.

"I don’t know of any plans to alter the 'one China' position," he said.

Tillerson said he considered China’s South China Sea activity "extremely worrisome" and that it would be a threat to the "entire global economy" if Beijing were able to dictate access to the waterway, which is of strategic military importance and a major trade route.

He blamed the current situation on what he termed an inadequate U.S. response. "The failure of a response has allowed them just to keep pushing the envelop on this," Tillerson said.

"The way we’ve got to deal with this is we’ve got to show back up in the region with our traditional allies in Southeast Asia," he said.

Democratic President Barack Obama’s administration conducted periodic air and naval patrols to assert the right of free navigation in the South China Sea. These have angered Beijing, but seeking to blockade China's man-made islands would be a major step further and a step that Washington has never raised as an option.

Tillerson's words also went beyond Trump's own tough rhetoric on China.

Obama has sought to forge a united front in Southeast Asia against China’s pursuit of its territorial claims, but some allies and partners who are rival claimants have been reluctant to challenge Beijing.

Tillerson called China's South China Sea island-building and declaration of an air defense zone in waters of the East China Sea it contests with Japan "illegal actions."

"They’re taking territory or control, or declaring control of territories that are not rightfully China’s," he said.

Tillerson also said the United States could not continue to accept "empty promises" China had made about putting pressure on North Korea over that country's nuclear and missile programs.

He said his approach to dealing with North Korea - which recently declared it is close to carrying out its first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile - would be "a long-term plan" based on sanctions and their proper implementation.

Asked if Washington should consider imposing "secondary sanctions" on Chinese entities found to be violating existing sanctions on North Korea, Tillerson said: "If China is not going to comply with those U.N. sanctions, then it's appropriate ... for the United States to consider actions to compel them to comply."

He accused China of failing to live up to global agreements on trade and intellectual property, echoing past remarks by Trump, who has threatened to impose high, retaliatory tariffs on China. But Tillerson also stressed the "deeply intertwined" nature of the world's two biggest economies.

"We should not let disagreements over other issues exclude areas for productive partnership," he said.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
China wasted no time to respond to Trump and his Secretary of State choice, Tillerson, and I'll bet dollars to donuts alarm bells are going off in the capitals of not only China, but most of the world too.

Since it's not likely Tillerson went rogue on his comments, we could only surmise at least the following:
  • Trump doesn't care about existing arrangements with China, and by extension any other country, and is willing for US to unilaterally determine maritime sovereign rights, even if that violates international law (the unilateral part of Trump should be very obvious to all by now)
  • Trump is fully on board to evict China from its legal SCS holdings.
  • Trump seeks confrontations with China as policy to achieve his vision of "making US great again"
  • Trump is probably taking a page from the 'kill the chicken to scare the monkey' strategy
  • Trump thinks China will back down and give up sovereign territory to avoid war with the US
  • Trump is willing to risk war with China to achieve his aim
  • Trump may be sending signals to Putin on a deal to trade Crimea, for Russia's assistance to contain China
  • Trump is a populist politician that will do whatever it takes to achieve his primary goals and the world needs to take him serious on that, even if they think it's irrational for Trump to do so
  • Take Trump at his word; this man will not back down from his primary objectives, and clearly will threaten war with another nuclear great power
  • No, Trump isn't crazy. He is, however, a populist in the vein of Andrew Jackson, and the biggest populist since Denis Kearney, without the racial angle. Nope, Trump isn't a racist, but he will use some race baiting as tactics

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January 11, 2017, 10:54 PM EST January 12, 2017, 8:11 AM EST
  • Tillerson had said China must be denied access to reefs
  • Short of war, ‘there is nothing the Americans can do’: Davis
China said it had the right to act in its own territory in the disputed South China Sea, pushing back after President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state said Beijing must be denied access to reclaimed reefs.

While China’s foreign ministry issued a relatively measured response to the remarks, the threat from former Exxon Mobil Corp. chief Rex Tillerson raises the prospect of a more antagonistic U.S. approach to Beijing’s military buildup in the area. In recent years China has reclaimed thousands of acres of land and shooed away boats from other claimant states like the Philippines and Vietnam.

Hours into a confirmation hearing with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Tillerson compared China’s actions to those of Russia in Crimea, saying a failure to respond had allowed it to “keep pushing the envelope” in the South China Sea. “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that first the island-building stops and second your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed.”

China has been acting within the limits of its sovereignty, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said in response. “Like the U.S., China has the right within its own territory to carry out normal activities,” he said at a regular briefing in Beijing.

The remark is the latest from Trump’s administration to signal a more aggressive defense posture against China in addition to calls for a tougher line on trade. Trump earlier questioned the U.S.’s policy of recognizing Beijing over the government in Taiwan, and criticized China for a perceived failure to pressure North Korea more over its nuclear program.

Still, Lu said on Thursday that China agreed with Tillerson on areas of cooperation between the two countries. On Monday, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Chairman Jack Ma
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with Trump and discussed plans to create 1 million new jobs in the U.S. by helping small businesses sell goods to China.

Tillerson offered no detail about how the U.S. could stop China from reclaiming more land, or prevent access. In recent years the U.S. navy has conducted semi-regular freedom of navigation operations throughout the area, but that has not deterred China.

‘Fuel on the Fire’

“This is the sort of off-the-cuff remark akin to a tweet that pours fuel on the fire and maybe makes things worse,” said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra. “Short of going to war with China, there is nothing the Americans can do.”

China claims more than 80 percent of the South China Sea, where it has constructed features on seven rocks and reefs and installed military facilities. Several Southeast Asian nations and Taiwan also claim parts of the area, through which more than $5 trillion of trade passes each year.

In March, Trump accused Beijing of building a military fortress. “They do that at will because they have no respect for our president and they have no respect for our country,” he said.

Tillerson also said he would stand by U.S. defense treaties with Japan and South Korea. These had been in doubt after Trump said in an
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last March that he would consider withdrawing U.S. troops if allies didn’t pay more for their upkeep. Asked whether he agreed with Trump’s assertion that it wouldn’t be a bad thing for the U.S. if Japan and South Korea acquired nuclear weapons, Tillerson said he “did not agree."

The nominee also appeared to suggest he would maintain a U.S. pledge to defend Japan-administered islands close to Taiwan against any military take-over by China, which also claims them. Japanese and Chinese ships and planes have tailed one another around the uninhabited islands known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China.

“We have long-standing ally commitments with Japan and South Korea in the area and I think we would respond in accordance with those accords,” he said. “Certainly we have made commitments to Japan in terms of a guarantee of their defense.”

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga declined to comment on Tillerson’s remarks.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Time will tell whether his statement in the final paragraph of the report will prevail over the headline.
I agree time will tell. But, it's hard to see how we go from here to there if 'here' is official US policy to evict China from its SCS sovereign land holdings (by war?), and 'there' is productive partnership elsewhere.

What of US allies, friends, and other countries in Asia? Red flags popping up in their capitals? Strap on your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride to get to a new US-China equilibrium.
 

solarz

Brigadier
I predict China will use Tillerson's remarks as justification for ramping up the militarization of its SCS holdings.

Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if Trump will continue spending money on the issue. He campaigned on a promise to cut back such activities.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
They already do shadow US vessels sailing through the area.

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Here's an ELINT ship shadowing the Stennis carrier group. USS Stockdale in the foreground.
An Innocent question will US allow other navies to patrol near US waters under so called ... UN Right of Innocent Passage... ?????

Sure, and they may have similar "shadows', but its not a problem.... We've had Russians sending subs and Bears here and there, if somebody gets to close you send out an escort to "keep an eye on em"!
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Well I'll ask what I meant in the original post another way, How do you see future events unfolding?

Business as usual, FON will continue, in fact China's Liaoning Carrier Group is basically conducting a FON-OP at present???

While anything could go South when somebody gets a little "stooped", IE the Hainan P-3 incident, SU-27s rolling around P-8s, I can assure you, it will NOT be US aviators or sailors engaging in any "Stoopidity", won't happen, can't happen!
 
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