China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Brumby]

The last point, (l), "any other activity not having a direct bearing on passage" is also applicable in this case. Sending a political message = activity not having a direct bearing on passage. If they decide to screw around with Chinese reclamation efforts, point (k) also comes into play. China can try claiming point (a) to be violated as sailing one of the world's most heavily armed vessels so close to disputed territory is, in itself, a veiled threat; bit of a grey area though, still easier to spin that than the US trying to spin this as "innocent passage".

Your comments exemplified why non adherence to rule based framework is so problematic as with China's behaviour. You are throwing accusations and making things up without regards to what it means to operate in a structured environment. When a foreign vessel conducts an "innocent passage" transit it is subject to rules. If such a vessel is not in conformity, the coastal state has the right to request compliance and any failure allows the coastal State the right to ask the vessel to leave the territorial sea immediately. The question is what has China specifically lodged as a diplomatic protest rather than your make up accusations?

Regardless, I've spent enough time on Brumby. He's a snarky ball of unpleasantness and if he can't be bothered to google up a UNCLOS clause, hell if I believe he can be bothered to have a meaningful discussion.

You should conduct yourself at least with some degree of professionalism by not making personal attacks. You are making assertions and so the onus is on you to substantiate your arguments. The burden is not on me to google anything if you are too lazy to even outline your own argument.

 

[tidalwave]

US military pressure on SCS has helped China to speed up military modernization 10x times. So, it's ALL Good. The more the better>

Also, the word is China ready to move in the mobile nuke power plant in SCS.

Now, that's a deterrence, No one is gonna mess around with Nuke power plant. Destroy the plant and ruining the surrounding water will get international condemnation.

 

[plawolf]

US military pressure on SCS has helped China to speed up military modernization 10x times. So, it's ALL Good. The more the better>

Also, the word is China ready to move in the mobile nuke power plant in SCS.

Now, that's a deterrence, No one is gonna mess around with Nuke power plant. Destroy the plant and ruining the surrounding water will get international condemnation.

I am actually a little dubious about how wise it is to send in the mobile nuclear power plant.

The likes of Vietnam can be exceedingly sneaky and underhanded when it comes to the things they pull in the SCS.

If they send in commandos to sabotage the plant, I have zero doubt the western media will go way out of their way to dismiss and surpress any evidence and suggestion of such acts, and instead do their level best to hype up commonly held western prejudices about the quality of Chinese goods to pin the blame for any ensuing disaster squarely on China for sending in the mobile power plant.

It would have been far more expensive, but i think building fixed, traditional nuclear reactors would have been a far more secure option, as it will be orders of magnitudes harder to successfully infiltrate a maximum security facility built in the middle of the island rather than a ship, even when parked inside the enclosed harbours of those islands.

That is not to say it will be at all easy for anyone to try and sneak into those enclosed harbours. I'm sure the PLA has all sorts of security measures and nasty surprises in stall for anyone who would try it.

 

[antiterror13]

Well, it is a two way street .... if Vietnam did that ... what would stop China did the same to Vietnam critical infrastructures ... it would mean a war

And I don't believe Vietnam is that stupid

 

[AndrewS]

Just look at the risks for Vietnam in such a strategy.

If Vietnam was ever caught using commandos to destroy a Chinese nuclear power plant and contaminate the SCS, then it would be an act of war and everyone in the world would quietly applaud whilst China gave Vietnam an object lesson.

If countries believe they can start covert actions to destroy each other's nuclear reactors, where does it end?

 

[antiterror13]

Interesting read ... a bit old, 9 months ago .... 3 parts
Aquino gave China reason for reclamation

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also very interesting what Duterte would do

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[confusion]

Interesting read ... a bit old, 9 months ago .... 3 parts
also very interesting what Duterte would do

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Probably explains why the Aquino administration is doing this right now:

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Malacañang staffers say they're 'frustrated' over verbal orders for them to shred and transfer certain government documents
Rappler.com
Published 3:30 PM, May 21, 2016

Is panic gripping Malacañang? Or is this simply a case of overzealous bosses?

Some Palace staffers are disturbed and dismayed by a recent order issued to some departments under the Office of the President (OP). It’s a straightforward and curt order: shred certain government documents and memoranda signed by outgoing President Benigno Aquino III and other Cabinet secretaries.

The President is stepping down a little more than a month now, on June 30.

In an ideal world, the transition to the incoming administration should not only be smooth but should also be accompanied by complete staff work – all key decisions documented and easily accessible, all major policies searchable in both hard copies and electronic files, all fund releases documented from the unit that made these requests and the unit that released and used those funds.

Many of these documents were ordered shredded this week, Palace insiders told Rappler. Some staffers are resisting this, the same insiders said.

They said the instruction includes deleting electronic files and the turnover of certain documents to one particular department under the OP.

Is this even allowed? The national archives law (Republic Act 9470) prohibits government agencies from disposing of their records unless authorized, in writing, by the executive director of the National Archives of the Philippines.

Even the arbitrary “transfer of records” is prohibited because the same law considers transfer (for example, the transfer of documents from the Office of the Executive Secretary to the Presidential Management Staff) as a form of disposing records, according to one veteran government official.

What’s making this worse, say our insiders, is the absence of written instructions on the shredding and transfer. Everything is verbal and that’s why staffers are “frustrated, rebellious.”

What would the incoming Duterte presidency have to say to that?

 

[delft]

There are specific conditions laid out in UNCLOS that defines "innocent passage". I suggest you actually try to understand the subject.

By declaring it the way the Pentagon did it cannot be considered anything but a political statement and thus not "innocent". Innocent passage is a passage as part of a nautical operation, not as part of a political operation.

 

[Brumby]

By declaring it the way the Pentagon did it cannot be considered anything but a political statement and thus not "innocent". Innocent passage is a passage as part of a nautical operation, not as part of a political operation.

You are at liberty to project your own thoughts on whether the specific passage was innocent or not. However China hasn't specifically made that as a point of contention and that itself speaks of the merit or lack of in adopting such a view.

 

[tidalwave]

Words have leaked out, China would resume massive reclaimation once the court decision has been made. It will demonstrate whatever court decision would be null and void.