China's SCS Strategy Thread

plawolf

Lieutenant General
What you say has merit, but let's look at it from the other guy's perspective. US is the current leader in Asia, and a reemerging China wants to carve out some space of its own. Since it'll likely come at US expense, is it reasonable Washington would see it in a negative way? If one believes the best solution is for both sides to address the others most pressing concerns, then China needs to reassure US anxieties, just as US needs to consider Chinese sensitivities. It's a two-way street.

Well, one could argue that the whole reason there is any friction at all is because the US has NOT considered Chinese concerns at all.

Despite all the pretty words and lofty ideals from Washington, if you look at the actual actions and decisions, you will see that America doesn't seem to know the concepts of self restraint or reciprocity when it comes to foreign policy.

It will unabashedly leverage all of its might and power to extract every last tiny piece of advantage it can, and will only stop when it meets resistance fierce enough to make continued pressing cost-prohibitive.

China would not need to carve out any space for itself at America's expense if America didn't push right up to China's doorstep to start with.

Such an overbearing and unrestrained foreign policy all but guarantees friction and conflict with rising powers world wide, as has proved to be the case since long before the end of the Cold War.

One can reasonably argue that the whole Cold War started for this exact same reason.

American conservatives are so insure and paranoid about potential threats that they cannot see that their compulsive need to nip every conceivable threat in the bud has actually had the exact opposite result of making America enemies all over the world. Often for no good reason.

Treat someone as your enemy, and usually you will end up making them one.

A truly great power should know when to back off and make reasonable accommodations.

That way you separate people who just want to grow and get on with their own business in peace from those who actually mean you harm, and can better focus your attention and resources countering your real enemies rather than pick pointless fights with people who could have been your allies.
 

Janiz

Senior Member
One can reasonably argue that the whole Cold War started for this exact same reason.
Wow, you learn something every day. I always thought that the main reason were USSR's plans of conquering the whole Europe which they haven't renounced (on the military side) up to the last days of Warsaw Pact...

But it turns out it was US fault for being greedy o_O
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Wow, you learn something every day. I always thought that the main reason were USSR's plans of conquering the whole Europe which they haven't renounced (on the military side) up to the last days of Warsaw Pact...

But it turns out it was US fault for being greedy o_O


USSR wanted buffer space, US and the other NATO powers considered it to be an unacceptable threat... one can spin all sides to be reasonable or unreasonable depending on the reference point one uses.
 
thediplomat_2016-02-12_15-55-05.jpg

comes from
China Reclaimed Land for South China Sea Anti-Submarine Helicopter Base Near Vietnam
The People’s Liberation Army is building a South China Sea helicopter base that could be a key node in a Chinese anti-submarine warfare (ASW) network across the region,
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.

The imagery —
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— show what appears to be extensive reclamation work to build could easily be an ASW helicopter base on Duncan Island, about 200 miles from the coast of Vietnam in the disputed Paracel Islands.

The base “could signal a step-up in China’s ASW capabilities across the South China Sea. A network of helicopter bases and refueling stops scattered across the South China Sea, using no more than the bases China is already known to be building, would make almost any coordinate in the sea reachable,” read the analysis by Victor Robert Lee.
“By hopscotching between bases, the [ASW] helicopter fleet would be unconstrained by fuel range or limited numbers of ship-borne landing berths, creating a continuous and contiguous web of surveillance and response capability.”

The analysis went on to say “such a web would have utility beyond anti-submarine warfare, and would probably reshape surface ship and aerial combat strategies in the region,” Lee wrote.

In reaction to the revelation, Pentagon officials reiterated their call for all South China Sea nations to island reclamation work, in a Sunday statement to USNI News

“The United Sates continues to call on all claimants to halt land reclamation, construction and militarization of features in the South China Sea,” spokesman Cmdr. Bill Urban told USNI News. “While the United States does not take a position on sovereignty claims to land features, we have growing concerns about China’s pattern of assertive behavior, which creates uncertainties about China’s strategic intentions.”

Naval analyst Eric Wertheim told USNI News last week, if the analysis holds up, it would give the Chinese more military options regionally.

“If it turns out to be true. It’s another example of China excreting its effort to control the South China Sea,”
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said.
“From a military perspective it certainly has an impact as these bases can serve as unsinkable aircraft carriers.”

According to Wertheim, the bases could sustain and act as lily pads for the PLAN’s new Changhe Z-18F ASW variant – based on the French SA 321 Super Frelon heavy lift helicopter – which have a range of 450 nautical miles. The Duncan Island installation would put the helicopters easily in range of Vietnam’s maritime territory.

In September, Pacific Command commander Adm. Harry Harris told the Senate how he viewed the expanded installations across the entire region.

“If you look at all of these facilities — and you could imagine a network of missiles sites, runways for their fifth generation fighters and surveillance sites and all that — it creates a mechanism in which China would have de facto control over the South China Sea in any scenario short of war,” Harris said.
“These are obviously easy targets in war, it’s what we call in the military, “grapes” if you will, but short of that, the militarization of these features pose a threat against all other countries in the region.”

News of the base comes as Vietnam is in the midst of modernizing its submarine force to include six Russian-built improved Kilo-class diesel electric attack submarines. The submarines, acquired for the maritime defense of Vietnam’s substantial coastline, are part of a Hanoi naval expansion that would assert Vietnam claims in the region.

The disparity between the Vietnamese Navy and the PLAN and
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. That May, China sent a $1 billion offshore oil platform inside Vietnam’s disputed economic exclusion zone (EEZ) and had ringed it with ships to prevent challenges. If China, for example, made a similar attempt in the future, it could make it riskier for Vietnams reconstituted submarine force to intercede with closer ASW helicopters.

While the reclamation work in the Paracels –
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– is not as controversial as the ongoing work the Chinese have done to build artificial islands in the Spratly Islands near the Philippines.

In the last two years China has turned low tide elevations into military-style installations – though China insists they aren’t for military use.

The Chinese controlled territories in the Paracels – on the other hand – are recognized land features that China has controlled since the mid-1970s while Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims.

In addition expanding the territory on Duncan Island by more than 50 percent in the last year, China has also expanded its Paracel holdings at its airbase at Woody Island, North Island and Tree Island.

“The recent developments at Tree, North, and Duncan islands indicate that Beijing is augmenting its position in the Paracels, which have been overshadowed of late by China’s epic construction projects in the Spratlys,” Lee wrote.
The changes in progress will in the Paracels “probably reshape surface ship and aerial combat strategies in the region.”
source:
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China Reclaimed Land for South China Sea Anti-Submarine Helicopter Base Near Vietnam

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What a joke to describe China's coast guard ships to be heavily armed, a few of them are maybe on par with the US and Japan coast guards'. And the US and Japan also have themselves to credit for militarizing islands such as the Ryukyus which also fit the description of:

...
“These are obviously easy targets in war, it’s what we call in the military, “grapes” if you will, but short of that, the militarization of these features pose a threat against all other countries in the region.”
...
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
What a joke to describe China's coast guard ships to be heavily armed, a few of them are maybe on par with the US and Japan coast guards'. And the US and Japan also have themselves to credit for militarizing islands such as the Ryukyus which also fit the description of:

Oh that's not even the most hilarious spin that article tries of pull.

Its suggesting China might be building ASW helicopter bases so it can send in oil rigs into disputed waters and use those helicopters to threaten Vietnamese kilos. Who I presume are only there for a peaceful protest. :rolleyes:

I don't even know where to start with that. Talk about forcing a squad peg through a round hole. Its so desperate to sell its "Chinese helicopter base BAD" line its literally making BS up.

The biggest threat significantly improved PLAN ASW coverage in the SCS would pose to is the USN. The author of that article clearly doesn't want to say why they are so consternated over this potential use of the islands, so they are shoehorning the Vietnam in as the innocent threatened party. Even going so far as to concoct this oil rig in disputed waters scenario to try and give the Vietnamese more sympathy.

Try as they may, they cannot change the fact that subs are inherently an offensive platform, while ASW is principally defensive in nature. But that doesn't fit with their party line narrative that China is the assertive/aggressive party causing trouble, so they are going out of their way to twist a defensive platform into an offensive position while painting an offensive platform as the 'victim', never mind the fact that if Vietnam was daft enough to use subs to sink Chinese coast guard ships and/or attack the oil rig, it would be a massive escalation and clear act of aggression.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member

Vietnam's prime minister has urged a greater U.S. role in preventing militarization and island-building in the South China Sea, the government said on Tuesday, in a rare call for Washington's support to curb Beijing's maritime expansionism.

During a summit of Southeast Asian countries in California on Monday, premier Nguyen Tan Dung suggested to U.S. President Barack Obama that Washington uses a stronger voice and "more practical and more efficient actions", in comments likely to rile China.

Tension has spiked since Beijing's construction of seven islands in the Spratly archipelago.

"Prime Minister Dung suggested the United States has a stronger voice and more practical and more efficient actions requesting termination of all activities changing the status quo," the government said on its news website.

The statement did not specifically name China, but it said Dung was referring especially to "large-scale construction of artificial islands" and "militarization".



I think Dung is hinting about Paracel in this case. Vietnam is gonna have heart attack on a daily basis now China is focusing on Paracel island building now. And Paracel island is quite different. Sansha City on Woody island is natural island with thousands of population. Its entitled to 200 miles EEZ which compassed all those small islands around it. The whole island chain is controlled by China since 74 , there's no other contestants around and its far away from trade route.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Tossing fuel into the fire?

Possibly a message to Obama's get together at the Sunnylands and a response to recent US flights and sailings around the area.

That said, it's worth remembering that Yongxing is not one of the reclaimed islands but is actually a real island so deploying a military force there is quite different to deploying forces to the artificial islands in terms of precedent.

Also, I myself would like to wait for positive ID that those are indeed SAMs first... a few things that seem off is that two control trucks per launch vehicle seems a bit much, and I'm also unsure as to whether they are stationed on sand or on land in the pic... I'm not sure if the TELs can be stable on land.
If the US decides to press the issue and if the Chinese respond, that would probably be an easy way to confirm and/or deny whether those are actually SAMs.
 
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