China's Saudi Nuclear Deal

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Surprised nobody has picked up on this.
Last Week Premier Wen flew to Saudi and the Gulf and wrote a very large amount of Hydrocarbon related business. Not so much in the headlines was a deal which is probably far more significant and could be responsible for a dramatic reshaping of the security environment of the Middle East, not to mention the future of the petrodollar.

China and Saudi Arabia have signed a deal to develop civilian Nuclear energy on the Peninsular and while the Saudi's have similar types of agreements with some European countries, this is being seen a very different type of animal, mainly on account to Chinese history in the Nuclear programmes of Pakistan and North Korea.

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It seems as though the belief is that China is going to sponsor a nuclear programme in Saudi which is almost identical to the Iranian programme. Obviously this is going to throw up significant diplomatic problems and create tension between the House of Saud, Tel Aviv and Washington.

If China indeed perceives the US "Return to Asia" as a policy of constraint against its own growth of influence in the Western Pacific, is the Saudi Deal Beijing's answer?
 

Maggern

Junior Member
This would indeed be interesting. Especially since SA is Iran's nemesis, with which China trades quite a deal. Then again seeing as how China is Iran's only major trade partner left, I don't think the Iranians have the ability to protest this...
 

SampanViking

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Hi maggern, I can't say that I really see it in that way.
One, Iran is nothing like as isolated as the media like to paint and it still sells a lot of oil to Japan, South Korea and India as well as to China.

Two, I do not think Iran will be displeased by this development as it makes the current campaign against them harder to maintain, not only by opening up the argument of double standards, but by at least neutralising a major player in the league opposing them.

If the Chinese deal is for a programme similar to the Iranians, then what we have is a genuine energy programme that has "break out" potential. It would be nice to think to think that both would be happy to achieve break out potential and sit at that point saying "If you don't, we won't". Given the status of the other key players, this seems unlikely and so both will probably seek to "break out" at the earliest possible moment. Again, though I do not see too much worry as the record for opposing nations breaking out is actually quite encouraging. The best example has to be India and Pakistan, where artillery duels have now subsided to diplomatic sabre rattling and all against a background of greater peace seeking and a joint programme of issue settlement for SCO membership.

China is the best country to initiate such a programme as it has tangible interests on both sides, being the biggest Energy customer of both nations. It has a very obvious interest in preserving peace and stability throughout the Persian Gulf region and very special interest in ensuring regime survival in Tehran. So indeed does China's main strategic partner, Russia and I see a very complex joint play here to put the US on the back foot in both Central Asia and the Middle East.

There are two schools of thought regarding anti proliferation:
a) That it is a well intentioned method of controlling the spread and deployment of devastating weapons
b) That is is simply a policy instrument to sure up hegemony.

AS others have cited, if the real red line in all this is not Nuclear capability but the survival of the petrodollar as the main medium of Global Oil and Gas transactions, then the real goal of such a policy will be to enable China to buy all its Oil and Gas in the Yuan from its major suppliers.
 

delft

Brigadier
I had just finished reading the ATol article when I went to SDF and found this thread.
By gaining influence in Saudi Arabia China might be able to reduce tension between SA and Iran and so ensure the oil supply from the Middle East for itself and for India, South Korea and Japan. The interests of these countries are not with the policies of the US. Under these circumstances SA will not develop nuclear weapons unless the policies of Israel become too outrageous.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
An interesting theory Sampan, and one that bares a great deal of merit.

It was interesting that while watching the news in China a few days back (or rather listening to it in the background), there was a report on Wen's visit to the middle east, and right after, there was a very brief side story that just consisted of a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman coming out and saying that China is firmly committed to the NPT, and opposes any nation from developing nuclear weapons, or something to that effect.

The only reason that I remembered that particular segment at all was because of it's seemingly irrelevance at the time, which left me shaking my head at quality of the production team. But reading this, there looks like more to that segment than merely sloppy editing.
 

delft

Brigadier
I just copied this article to the Persian Gulf and Middle East thread:
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That is also relevant here and in the China Economy thread. China increases its influence and reduces tension in that area.
 

Lezt

Junior Member
An interesting theory Sampan, and one that bares a great deal of merit.

It was interesting that while watching the news in China a few days back (or rather listening to it in the background), there was a report on Wen's visit to the middle east, and right after, there was a very brief side story that just consisted of a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman coming out and saying that China is firmly committed to the NPT, and opposes any nation from developing nuclear weapons, or something to that effect.

The only reason that I remembered that particular segment at all was because of it's seemingly irrelevance at the time, which left me shaking my head at quality of the production team. But reading this, there looks like more to that segment than merely sloppy editing.

I am thinking you meant bears, I don't think you meant that the theory is *void* of a great deal of merit.
 
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