China's overland Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road Thread

Quon_Duixote

New Member
There is no intention of giving India the miss. The BRICS bank will also contribute to OBOR and has an Indian chief. It is just that the Pakistan complex of projects has been published first. What do you think of the plan to build a high speed railway from Kunming to Dhaka and Kolkata?
To that my response would be that 'one needs to walk first before one can aspire to run fast(ala high speed rail)!! ;) ..realistically India and China have a lot of work to do vis a vis their bilateral relationship. India has certain geopolitical considerations that China needs to be cognizant of ( and respect!) And the the vexed border issue. That's why I refer to what I did in my previous post I.e. the element of economic coercion :)
 

mr.bean

Junior Member
Perhaps a slightly perverse aspect of the OBOR is the element of economic coercion in the larger spectrum of geopolitical situation in south Asia. For example the OBOR invests significantly in Pakistan as opposed to India which, perhaps, one can safely assume would pay significantly higher return on capital invested. I don't think this strategy of giving India the miss is going to work out in the long term given india's vast and rapidly maturing markets and a very favorable position (geographically) in south Asia and the IOR. for me, some of these aspects will prevent the OBOR from being successful to the level it envisages!!

I don't think it's china giving india the miss, but it's actually india having it's own cold feet about OBOR. Modi didn't even officially endorse OBOR on his just concluded china visit. it's pretty obvious that china is the most active and progressive in regards to economic/trade policies. china's bilateral trade with every south Asian nation will skyrocket with the OBOR, including india even if india is lukewarm to the OBOR.
 

Quon_Duixote

New Member
I don't dispute that
I don't think it's china giving india the miss, but it's actually india having it's own cold feet about OBOR. Modi didn't even officially endorse OBOR on his just concluded china visit. it's pretty obvious that china is the most active and progressive in regards to economic/trade policies. china's bilateral trade with every south Asian nation will skyrocket with the OBOR, including india even if india is lukewarm to the OBOR.
I don't dispute the "Indian cold feet" syndrome and there is a historical baggage to it. As an Indian I see this whole lot of economic activity peripherally that is perhaps designed to thwart me (as in my country, economically). So I try harder to plug gaps in my own economy towards a competitive market which gets China to try harder to thwart me..that is the psychological aspect of it. I somehow feel that if economic stimulus is the whole point then missing the largest market in south Asia would not help in achieving the stated goals of OBOR and that points me to a logical conclusion of economic coercion as an underlying agenda of the OBOR. my intent is to add another flavor to the discussion and get opinion from other members!
 

Quon_Duixote

New Member
Remember, I am perhaps looking at the OBOR from a narrow perspective of south Asia and it is perhaps diversified enough to make it much more than viable! I would like to read a strategic treatment of the OBOR from a Chinese perspective to understand better. Is there any such authoritative work available?
 

delft

Brigadier
I don't dispute that

I don't dispute the "Indian cold feet" syndrome and there is a historical baggage to it. As an Indian I see this whole lot of economic activity peripherally that is perhaps designed to thwart me (as in my country, economically). So I try harder to plug gaps in my own economy towards a competitive market which gets China to try harder to thwart me..that is the psychological aspect of it. I somehow feel that if economic stimulus is the whole point then missing the largest market in south Asia would not help in achieving the stated goals of OBOR and that points me to a logical conclusion of economic coercion as an underlying agenda of the OBOR. my intent is to add another flavor to the discussion and get opinion from other members!
China is not guilty for the slowness of the modernization of Indian Railways, for the deficiency of its electric power system, the quality of the education system ( insufficient primary education, no Indian university in the top twenty of the Asian universities ), the abominable quality of the air in Indian cities ( ten in the top twenty of most the polluted cities in the World, none of them Chinese ). China wants India to be better developed because then it buy and sell more in India and so be less dependent on some other countries.
 

Quon_Duixote

New Member
And what is your point? I know the ills that plague my land, don't need an unsolicited brain dump from you! Are you somehow suggesting that all these factors make India irrelevant in a south asia strategy for the OBOR/MSR?
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
OBOR is a Chinese project designed to maximise Chinese interests and benefits.

It is not a hand out to the world.

The goal of OBOR is to vastly improve Chinese land connections first to central Asia, then the Middle East and eventually onwards to Europe and Africa.

With Europe as the eventual destination, detouring South to India makes little sense, especially in the initial launch stage we are seeing now.

Branching out to link OBOR to tangential (to the direction the route wants to go) economies is a secondary objective, that will probably only become truly attractive once the core links to the ME, Europe and beyond are well established as countries seek to top into this new opportunity.

By and large, I think the emphasis falls on these tangential economies (which India is one) to approach China to ask to link themselves to China's OBOR project to benefit from all the work China is doing. Because making those links will benefit those economies far more than it would China.

Given its size and importance, obviously India won't need to come cap in hand to Beijing to ask for permission to join, but OTOH, if India is expecting China to come to Delhi cap in hand to beg India to join, they will be disappointed.

The bottom line is that India just isn't as important to China as most Indians would like to think. It gets the respect and attention its size (economic) and power (political and diplomatic) demands in Beijing, no more, no less.

In terms of economics and strategic considerations, India's limited economic integration with China means its not a high priority for the Chinese government when planning for the OBOR, and the infamous red tape and thinly veiled political hostility in Indian towards everything Chinese would also be massive factors acting against India being seem as core component material for the Chinese OBOR.

So to sum up, China is expecting friendly and highly motivated countries to be lining up to get a piece of its OBOR pie, most of whose inclusion in the project would directly further China's ultimate plans and goals for OBOR.

In that context, India, who is of underwhelming importance to China, whose geographical location means its inclusion would not be directly helping to advance China's immediate or ultimate plans for OBOR, and who's toxic investment and political climate towards Chinese involvement within India all contribute to India being seen as a marginal piece within the context of OBOR's initial stages.

India's inclusion would obviously be beneficial to all, but its exclusion would hardly make Chinese leaders loose sleep over.
 

Quon_Duixote

New Member
and what are your comments on a china defense forum doing to fix any of them? rather then seeking to inflate your country's significance through rhetoric, maybe try improving it through action!
Maybe I was trying to understand the OBOR strategy from a south Asian lens. I don't think it needed an unsolicited attack on the Indian states' economic underpinnings or challenges for that matter. Anyway I think wolf has surmised the Chinese point of view well. Let's put it at rest now!
 

no_name

Colonel
IMO India can always be more proactive - why not have your own OBOR? You are closer to the middle east and Europe than China. One try to maneuver oneself into strategic advantage and not expect others to provide the opportunity.

Maybe looking from the above perspective will lead to revelation that: OBOR is not some sort of end all be all secret plan cooked up by the Chinese government, a sort of isolated checkmate. It is an extension and culmination of a series of previous ground works laid that paid off (and in return shall itself provide further opportunities).

Stuff like establishing diplomatic detente with the US

Stuff like opening up Chinese market economy

Stuff like raising education level and workforce competitiveness of the country

Stuff like good economic management, and experimentation of SEZs.

Stuff like extensive focus on infrastructure developments and transportation improvements, high speed rails etc.

Stuff like a stable governance, settling not all but many border disputes, warming of ties with Russia.

and more.
 
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