China's indigenous bomber program

Current PLAAF and PLANAF bomber fleet is comprised of old H6 aircraft, we all know that. No matter how useful those planes are, fact is that they all have a limited lifespan, and after all these decades they're already quite used. Also, fact of the matter is they're old tech, offering sort of abysmal performace when compared to a modern day bomber. So, it is obvious china wants to replace them with new planes, sooner or later.

In the short term, buying foreign bombers does have its advantages and will probably be done. But looking at the problem more long term, with China's continued economic and technological growth and also having in mind that dependance on other party's tech/supplies can be risky - it is obvious china will some day go for it's own, indigenously designed and built bomber aircraft.

So far everything seems clear, somethign i'd hope most of you would agree on with me. Now i'll proceed with my private view on the course that such a bomber developtment program should take.

I think it would be a mistake to go for a high tech, pushing the envelope plane, even in chinese terms. The much talked about j-xx plane programme is pretty much that - it seems to be designed as a giant leap in terms of abilities and tech that is required to pull all that off. Such approach takes literally decades and while in the end it may supply you with tremendous plane, it also means you have those two or more decades worth of risk not having any significant improvements in your abilities.

So i suggest this: Pick a design route that shows most promise and room for improvement and start small. In this case, designing a bomber, i hope china goes with a blended/flying wing design. Of course, making a B2 copy would pretty much be the equivalent of 20 or more year development process. So why not start with older and tried out design that is known for a fact to work well? I am talking something not unlike the old british avro vulcan bomber.

Perhaps with less of delta and bit more of a classical swept wing, bigger wingspan and less of a protruding nose section. Classical T shaped tail section can remain if no horizonal tail surfaces proves too much of a challenge. Remember, point is to keep it simple. Use mostly off the shelf tech, engines that are already available, materials that are available (meaning not more composites than j10 has, for example), etc. Even with such an approach, the leap in capabilities over the H6 bomber would be huge.

Development time would be short, i'm thinking just years, development cost fairly low. Goal would be to make a limited production run and start testing the final product. Perhaps like 10-12 aircraft would enter PLAAF and be used to gain knowledge, offer new ideas in design from the usage, just evaluate the plane in the best way possible - by using it.

Of course, with the start of production of first generation bomber, development would not stop. On the contrary. Various improvement would be made, very likely helped by the input of actual service of first gen bomber. During this process foreign bought bombers could and probably would also be used, actually they'd form the majority of the force until the indigenous bomber program matures.

Every 6-8 years an improved design could/would be brought to manufacture, every incarnation featuring better tech. stronger engines, more composites, better avionics suite, changes on the outer design itself - aiming at getting rid of the classic style tail, first perhaps just the vertical stabilizator in the second generation, then maybe smaller twin stabilizators aiming for more stealth in third generation, then no tail surfaces at all in fourth.

Of course goals put in front of the program would be bigger, more stealth, more payload, bigger range. But it'd all be in relatively small increments. First generation could for example carry 12 tons to japan and back without refuelling, third generation could do the same to guam. last generation should be able to be a true intercontinental bomber.

Eventually, after some 18-24 years there china would/could posess a stealthy flying wing plane with impressive abilities. Its steady development would be more certain than one huge leapfrog discussed in the beginning of this post, and the final result would most probably be superior too, since there are decade(s) of actual experience behind this continuously evolving design. Just like the US... they couldn't have built the B2 like it is now without first building the stratofortress, the hustler, the aardvark, nighthawk, lancer before it. Most importantly, during those 18-24 years there would be bombers to count on. Not just the previously bought foreign ones, but the dozen or so first gen indigenous ones, further dozen second gen, another dozen third gen and so on. Small series, small batches. Not unlike the incremental improvements that PLAN is getting on their small (usually two ships per generation) batches of new vessels.

Since speed and range are on a certain level mutually exclusive, long term program like this would produce a high subsonic bomber, again just like B2. I am however thinking that any sort of conflict in the early years, when china still doesnt have a major projection of power beyond its borders, could benefit more from speed than range. Therefore i would suggest that the foreign bought bombers be supersonic, not unlike commonly suggested su-34 and backfire (backfires maximum range would probably not be used anyway, so good deal of the time in air the plane could use its great max speed, a very useful thing in hit and run raids china would most probably be involved in any kind of pre 2030 war against a strong enemy)

so are you leaning towards a b-52 style aircraft or a b-1 style aircraft? personally, the b-1 style offers more perforamnce. speed is more important to the attack role, although its useless for evasion. stealth is a must have.
the solution: a tu-22 force purchased from russia, custom tailored to the plans and plaafs needs. new attack and targeting systems, newer weapon carrying abilites, upgraded avionics and navigation, and composite construction for rcs reduction. a coat of ram can be applied. the tu-22 clearly doesnt have much of a future with the russian af, so why not with china? the refuel probe can be deleted, as its not needed. it also males some more distant neighbors feel safe.

the reason for this is that an indegedous programm may take too long. pioneering swing-wing technology and the engienes should take years.

Maybe we can get the swing-wing and engine tech from EADS as well as Russia once the embargo is lifted? :china:

Nah. The bomber is going more and more out of fashion as the large strike fighters and fighter bombers take their jobs.

I think purchasing Tu-22Ms and then replacing their radar and systems to China's missiles are the best way out.

But if you want to go indigenious, I suggest start designing a large multipurpose platform. As bombers become a thing of the past, launching not much but JDAMs and ALCMs, a large multipurpose platform that becomes a bomber can also be modified and be built into planes of other purposes, like EW, AWACS, etc.

I am not leaning towards either b52 or b1 style bomber. if anything, it'd be closest to b2. I consider swing wing to be a thing of a past, especially for long range intercontinental missions. Plus, its rather uncompatible with lowering the RCS, an immobile blended wing design will always be more stealthy than swing wing one.

And i agree with sumdud, it'd also be multifunctional. larger plane like a bomber can store larger and more powerful radars. I didnt mention it in the first post but it seems only natural to be for such plane to sport a very wide arc front radar and a tail radar, covering more or less 360 deg. Also, being stealthy, itd be rather good platform to launch very heavy ultra long AAMs, thatd otherwise be hard to be installed on j10 size planes. Basically, the big advantage is size. Of course it should be modular and be able to serve as second-tier awacs, ECM platform, long range awacs killer, cruise missile/ satellite killer launch platform, even carpet bombing platform if seen fit.

tu22m is a fine plane but whole point is to have china work on its own designs and tech. If it keeps buying other party's equipment it will never be able to get on par with the others, it will always b at least half a step behind. Not to mention tech level in general would be lower, tech that could perhaps be used in various other fields. Again, thats the half of it - not just to have a bomber - but to learn and get smarter from the process of making it.

You know how expensive the B2 is?!?! About $2 billion!! It's expensive because of its stealthy design, and not only does it sacrifice money for that, it also sacrifices speed.

Swing wing bombers are designed for speed. Bombers can't fly fast unless their wings are more sweeped, unlike the B2, but if their wings are sweeped they will have difficulty during takeoff and landing, that's why variable geometry wings are designed, so that they can have less sweep and more lift during takeoff/landing.

One of the only reasons you would not use variable geometry winged bombers nowdays is if you want to make them stealthy, but if you want to go into stealth that's going to cost you billions, China doesn't have that kind of money to spare on this kind of stuff.

But anyway, I agree with Sumdud. Bombers are going to be obsolete one day. One of the reasons bombers were designed in the past was because bombs were way inaccurate and have little explosive power, so the idea was to drop tons of them. Now, as technology advances, missiles are becoming faster, more accurate, and have more powerful warheads. Two JH-7s with total 8 YJ-82Ks is much better than some H-X bomber carrying say 20. They're much smaller and harder to detect than a huge bomber (unless you make it a stealth bomber which would cost billions like I mentioned before)

Bombers are also sitting ducks in the air, unlike fighter-bombers which can turn away faster and run, or defend themselves if needed.

Wingman said:

You know how expensive the B2 is?!?! About $2 billion!! It's expensive because of its stealthy design, and not only does it sacrifice money for that, it also sacrifices speed.

Swing wing bombers are designed for speed. Bombers can't fly fast unless their wings are more sweeped, unlike the B2, but if their wings are sweeped they will have difficulty during takeoff and landing, that's why variable geometry wings are designed, so that they can have less sweep and more lift during takeoff/landing.

One of the only reasons you would not use variable geometry winged bombers nowdays is if you want to make them stealthy, but if you want to go into stealth that's going to cost you billions, China doesn't have that kind of money to spare on this kind of stuff.

But anyway, I agree with Sumdud. Bombers are going to be obsolete one day. One of the reasons bombers were designed in the past was because bombs were way inaccurate and have little explosive power, so the idea was to drop tons of them. Now, as technology advances, missiles are becoming faster, more accurate, and have more powerful warheads. Two JH-7s with total 8 YJ-82Ks is much better than some H-X bomber carrying say 20. They're much smaller and harder to detect than a huge bomber (unless you make it a stealth bomber which would cost billions like I mentioned before)

Bombers are also sitting ducks in the air, unlike fighter-bombers which can turn away faster and run, or defend themselves if needed.

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I beleive it is also a simple mathmatical strategy. For example u have a bomber carrying 20 missiles but if this bomber gets shot down u loose all 20 missiles. But if u have 3 JH-7 carrying 8 missiles each, the enemy will have more targets (the JH-7) to worry about and if one gets shot down u still have some missiles left to do the job.
Perhaps that maybe one of the reasons why the PLAN is not building any cruiser size warships.
But isn't the advantage of a strategic bomber is that it has a very long flying range?

Of course china wouldn't spend 2 billion or 1 billion or even half a billion per plane. I was refering to the design and overall capabilities coming from that design when i used B2 as a good way to go. Flying wing (like b2 is) is the way to go. It absolutely can not be beat when it comes to flight efficiency. You get longer range, bigger payload, and the shape itself is inherently more stealthy than b52 type or b1 type plane.

Bombers will be with us for a long time. Even with US, when UCAVs come into service, i am confident there will one day be a large bomber UCAV for intercontinental missions. I already said it - it's all about size. It is more efficient to have a large aircraft (providing you can defend it) for deep strike missions.

What if you wanna fire off 200 antiship missiles at a target? do you wanna coordinate 100 j7a planes from various airfields, with it tyign up your ground attack forces, use up tons us fuel - or do you want to use 20 bombers for the very same mission, save loads of fuel, be stealthier about it? Again, i am not saying chinese bomber would be stealthy like B2 is today, but a slick flying wing design with internal weapons bay is inherently stealthier than j7 type plane with externally carried weapons.

And what happens if enemy keeps pounding you from a base 5 thousand km away? where your attack aircraft even when launching stand off missiles cant reach? or will you get in range with your bombers and take care of the target?

While i agree bombers are more or less through as delivery systems for short range bombs, supporting the ground troops, they still cant be beat in range, payload and thefore efficiency. For strategic deep strikes they are the way to go, complementing the cruise missiles.

Finally, the swing wing issue. Its a coin with two sides. You could say a straight wing sacrifices speed but you can also say that swept wing sacrifices range. Or, let me be more clear, it sacrifices fuel efficiency. It is very simple. if you want a bomber with short to medium range - go for swing wing design. If you want an intercontinental one - less swept wing and moderate speed is the most economic and reasonable choice. Backfire, lancer, tu160, they still fly most of their missions with more straight wing. And a swing wing system is not only bad for RCS but it is heavy and takes up space.

I think China should focus more on strike bombers like the su-34. Speed is isential to aircraft today because of the advanced AA systems. I belive carpet bombers are a thing of the past.

Totoro said:

Of course china wouldn't spend 2 billion or 1 billion or even half a billion per plane. I was refering to the design and overall capabilities coming from that design when i used B2 as a good way to go. Flying wing (like b2 is) is the way to go.

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That's one of the reasons why the B2 is so expensive! Flying wings are a radical design and are very difficult and expensive to develop and test.

You could say a straight wing sacrifices speed but you can also say that swept wing sacrifices range. Or, let me be more clear, it sacrifices fuel efficiency. It is very simple. if you want a bomber with short to medium range - go for swing wing design. If you want an intercontinental one - less swept wing and moderate speed is the most economic and reasonable choice. Backfire, lancer, tu160, they still fly most of their missions with more straight wing. And a swing wing system is not only bad for RCS but it is heavy and takes up space.

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Think of it as this way. Take your fat slow non-swing wing bomber and give it the ability to sweep its wings. It gains the ability to fly faster and everything else stays essentially the same. No it won't lose lift because higher speed produces higher lift. No it won't be able to carry less payload because it won't lose lift. No it won't lose fuel efficiency, in fact it will gain fuel efficiency because of lower drag!! No it won't become less stealthy (at least not by much). Unless you have a multi-billion-dollar-flying-wing-stealth-bomber it doesn't make any difference if you lose a little bit of stealth. It does make a lot of difference if your bomber slow, because that makes it a lot more vulnerable. Most swing-wing bombers can fly at Mach 2, enough to outrun fighters and get the hell back home in one piece.

As for one big bomber vs. multiple smaller fighter-bombers, that one big bomber is going to be a lot less survivable than the fighter-bombers. If a missile comes at you from long range, you need to turn away from it and run. Bombers need like half a minute to do just that, and by that time they're dead. Fighter-bombers are more manoeuvrable and therefore can avoid missiles more easily.