China's Defense/Military Breaking News Thread

[perfume]

Reposting from the other thread, hadn't noticed the discussion is already ongoing here:

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The Taiwanese call and Trump's new narrative was not something that occurred at short notice where Tsai just happened to call Trump and congratulate him out of the blue like Trump suggested with his tweets, nor has Trump now suddenly thought of the idea all by himself.

It's down to months of deliberate lobbying effort by Taiwan, to take advantage of Trump's relative inexperience in foreign policy affairs. It produces no tangible benefits for the United States except to spite China and step on China's NO.1 core interest - the One China policy, the foundation of US-China relations. Also the fact that Bob Dole is now boasting about it runs counter to Trump's 'drain the swamp' narrative.

Having said that I wouldn't read too much into it just yet, unless it becomes official US foreign policy when Trump takes office.

The China of 2016 is no longer the China of 1996, and will have a plethora of tools to engage in a tit-for-tat retaliation.

There's so much potential benefit for China and the US to cooperate together in a win-win scenario. It's a shame recent US administrations have been dominated by people who have a containment/zero-sum game mentality - i.e. I don't care if we both lose as long as you lose more than me.

That's just my humble opinion - I hope this falls under the scope of 'reasonable political discussion' and will be allowed by the mods - I am interested to hear other points of view

 

[hlcc]

The ChiComs know better than to start a war that would ultimately end with US + NATO troops accepting an unconditional surrender in Beijing.

That's interesting, this is exactly the opposite outcome predicted by various US think tanks such as Rand.

What Trump should do is to leverage the Chinese emphasis on the One-China policy and force Beijing to stop (1) illegal dumping of steel & other export product, (2) manipulating their currency, (3) demanding import tariffs on US trade to China.

1) If the Chinese want to subsidize our steel purchases or any product for that matter by dumping, I'm all for it.
2) Yes, China should stop manipulating it's currency and let the CNY devalue further.
3) US does have import tariff for imports from China. To be fair, the US tariff on imports from China is lower than the Chinese tariff on imports form the US by about 2-3% percentage points. However, a 2-3% tariff hike will just end up as an additional tax for the US consumers and will not have any impact on the volume of Chinese exports.

 

[SinoSoldier]

Ummm, no we don't?!

Does the defense provisions of the 1954-1979 Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty not carry over to the Taiwan Relations Act?

I am absolutely stunned by your occasional reversals in personality.

It's like every few months you become a Blackstone-lite for a couple of posts and start throwing around terms like Chicoms and believing the spiel about currency manipulation, and then you turn back into a constructive contributing member on actual Chinese military developments.

It's absolutely bizarre.

Uhh, I don't know how you're getting that feeling, but I'm just stating a couple of points/opinions regarding Taiwan matters. (BTW the term "ChiComs" is a shorthand for the Chinese gov't).

That's interesting, this is exactly the opposite outcome predicted by various US think tanks such as Rand.

Rand predicted that the Chinese would suffer substantial losses, with most of their forces deployed, while the US would suffer far less casualties and with only a fraction of their forces engaged.

1) If the Chinese want to subsidize our steel purchases or any product for that matter by dumping, I'm all for it.
2) Yes, China should stop manipulating it's currency and let the CNY devalue further.
3) US does have import tariff for imports from China. To be fair, the US tariff on imports from China is lower than the Chinese tariff on imports form the US by about 2-3% percentage points. However, a 2-3% tariff hike will just end up as an additional tax for the US consumers and will not have any impact on the volume of Chinese exports.

1. Steel consumers would enjoy it, but employees and leaders of US Steel & similar manufacturers would find it quite debilitating. Certainly doesn't go hand in hand with Trump's promise to bring manufacturing jobs back to CONUS.
2. The Yuan has been on a downward trend for a good portion of the year.
3. That's how tariffs work. American consumers would be forced to choose from other (hopefully domestic) suppliers and Chinese exporters would dip in their overseas sales.

 

[Blitzo]

Uhh, I don't know how you're getting that feeling, but I'm just stating a couple of points/opinions regarding Taiwan matters. (BTW the term "ChiComs" is a shorthand for the Chinese gov't).

Yes, and I'm saying your opinions that you're stating seem to be almost a complete 180 from most of your previous posts. They border quite on territory that would be considered neoconservative in the US.

As for the use of "chicom" -- I'm well aware of that what term means and the derogatory connotations it has. I am surprised you would use it, and I am also surprised that you are not aware that it is explicitly mentioned in the forum rules as a term that is prohibited.

 

[Equation]

Rand predicted that the Chinese would suffer substantial losses, with most of their forces deployed, while the US would suffer far less casualties and with only a fraction of their forces engaged.

.

Even than that would be too much for the American people back at home to stomach. Remember many Americans are sick and tire of the conflicts in the middle east that caused so much casualties and problems back home to deal with, much less talk about any military conflict with China? This would also cause the US as well as the rest of the world economy to deteriorate fast all just to fight with China.

 

[hlcc]

Rand predicted that the Chinese would suffer substantial losses, with most of their forces deployed, while the US would suffer far less casualties and with only a fraction of their forces engaged.

Yes for their 2015 scenario, and for their 2025 scenario they predict far less losses for the Chinese & increased losses for the US forces. In both scenarios, they predicted significant to heavy losses for both sides and some kind of costly but inconclusive result for both, not the unconditional surrender as you suggested.

1. Steel consumers would enjoy it, but employees and leaders of US Steel & similar manufacturers would find it quite debilitating. Certainly doesn't go hand in hand with Trump's promise to bring manufacturing jobs back to CONUS.
2. The Yuan has been on a downward trend for a good portion of the year.
3. That's how tariffs work. American consumers would be forced to choose from other (hopefully domestic) suppliers and Chinese exporters would dip in their overseas sales.

2. Yes, the CNY have been in a downward trend for a while not but that's not due to manipulations by the Chinese government. In fact the Chinese government are actually propping up the CNY right now and if they stopped manipulating the currency as Trump suggested it'll devalue further.
3. Tariff are a blunt and general highly ineffective tool that can managed to save/create a few jobs but at exceptionally high costs to the overall population. (recent example, the tariff increase against Chinese tires)
A 2-3% tariff increase so that US exports to China & China export to US are on "level playing field" tariff wise will not have much if any impact. For most of the stuff that China exports to the US, they are simply not competing with US based manufacturers (they are competing with the likes of Vietnam, South Korea etc), for the industries in which are in competition the Chinese price advantage in the range of 20-30%. Any Trump attempt to slap on a 20-30% tariff increase with China will automatically start a trade war in which the Chinese will absolutely have to retaliate in kind.
In a trade war in which both China & US slap on high punitive tariffs against each other, any manufacturer with even half a brain will want maintain access to both the US & Chinese market (the largest & 2nd largest), so as a result they'll move out of China and to the likes of Vietnam, Indonesia, maybe India or even South Korea.

 

[Ultra]

Reposting from the other thread, hadn't noticed the discussion is already ongoing here:

Don't know if you guys have come across this story yet.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The Taiwanese call and Trump's new narrative was not something that occurred at short notice where Tsai just happened to call Trump and congratulate him out of the blue like Trump suggested with his tweets, nor has Trump now suddenly thought of the idea all by himself.

It's down to months of deliberate lobbying effort by Taiwan, to take advantage of Trump's relative inexperience in foreign policy affairs. It produces no tangible benefits for the United States except to spite China and step on China's NO.1 core interest - the One China policy, the foundation of US-China relations. Also the fact that Bob Dole is now boasting about it runs counter to Trump's 'drain the swamp' narrative.

Having said that I wouldn't read too much into it just yet, unless it becomes official US foreign policy when Trump takes office.

The China of 2016 is no longer the China of 1996, and will have a plethora of tools to engage in a tit-for-tat retaliation.

There's so much potential benefit for China and the US to cooperate together in a win-win scenario. It's a shame recent US administrations have been dominated by people who have a containment/zero-sum game mentality - i.e. I don't care if we both lose as long as you lose more than me.

That's just my humble opinion - I hope this falls under the scope of 'reasonable political discussion' and will be allowed by the mods - I am interested to hear other points of view

This is TRUMP we are talking about here - the in-coming US president. His narrative throughout the campaign trail reveal his deep hatre for China. China is his favourite boogeyman. His current selection of adminstration personels points to even more anti-China attitude. Expect nothing short of the worst scenerio.

On the other hand, he is a businessman and this could also just be his ploy to press China for maximum leverage. China don't want to comply to his alph-ego wish he will press the Taiwan issue, if China start pushing back, he will put 3-6 CVBG in front of China which implies SLBM boomers ARE NOT FAR BEHIND (this is something most forumers here don't understand - they assume China can deal with CVBG with DF-21 ASBM but as soon as China sinks the CVBGs the US SLBM boomers will start launching their nukes). China has very VERY limited response to a nuclear exchange, its silo-based DF-5 are outdated and will be the first ones to be taken out, its DF-31 are extremely limited in number, with less than 30 by last estimate it pose almost no threat to the US when US has over 60 Aegis Frigates each with 90 cells of SM-3 or SM-6 to take down in layers upon layers of screens (and I havn't even count theTiconderoga). The Chinese boomers (SLBMs) with less than 5 (?) will have to face 57 nuclear attack submarines of which 43

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, 3 Sea-Wolf Class, 11 Virginia Class attack submarines. This means that China's SLBM boomers can't come out to the pacific which further limits its usefulness.

The only silver-lining on China's side is the Wu-14 hypersonic missile, which could potentially easily penetrate the US defence and threaten all cities. The problem is Wu-14 is still only a early prototype, not in production. It is untested, and US is already formulating a response; although I highly doubt in the short to medium term US can intercept such missile.


Realistic speaking, China will face its toughest years ahead. I can understand Trump, he is the kind of irrational bully that when he knows he has trump cards he will press you for an inch, and take you for hundreds of miles. If you don't give an inch, he will pile on the pressure and drive that wedge until you are forced to give an inch and he take you for miles.

The currency manipulation is a red-herring. Everyone who is even remotely educated knows that, China is currently trying very hard to not devalue its currency by spending billions to prop it up. But Trump is still going to drive that narrative. But for Trump to make America a manufacturing powerhouse again, it will need those minerals from China - specifically the rare earth minerals - but if value of Chinese currency goes up , you can forget about manufacturing in the US as raw material for the high tech manufacturing become unfeasible. So currency manipulation is a non-issue.

What I see Trump will do is to force China to open up the market and allow free flowing of capitals - right now it is impossible for companies to remove itself from China. There is also the tax/tariff issues, both of which Trump can press and press it hard. If China eventually allows the capital to flow freely and get rid of the tariff, Trump doesn't even need to threaten China to Taiwan or nuclear weapon, there will be a big popping sound going out of China as massive capital outflow going out of China, it will practicaclly drain China (and the reason why Chinese government is instituting such strict capital control). A lot of Chinese can't wait to get out of China (the real estate boom in US, NZ, AUS and UK is a testament to this) and Chinese government went dragonian on such control by stopping any individual from transferring more than $50,000 outside of China. So when that happen, China will become poor again.

 

[weig2000]

This is TRUMP we are talking about here - the in-coming US president. His narrative throughout the campaign trail reveal his deep hatre for China. China is his favourite boogeyman. His current selection of adminstration personels points to even more anti-China attitude. Expect nothing short of the worst scenerio.

On the other hand, he is a businessman and this could also just be his ploy to press China for maximum leverage. China don't want to comply to his alph-ego wish he will press the Taiwan issue, if China start pushing back, he will put 3-6 CVBG in front of China which implies SLBM boomers ARE NOT FAR BEHIND (this is something most forumers here don't understand - they assume China can deal with CVBG with DF-21 ASBM but as soon as China sinks the CVBGs the US SLBM boomers will start launching their nukes). China has very VERY limited response to a nuclear exchange, its silo-based DF-5 are outdated and will be the first ones to be taken out, its DF-31 are extremely limited in number, with less than 30 by last estimate it pose almost no threat to the US when US has over 60 Aegis Frigates each with 90 cells of SM-3 or SM-6 to take down in layers upon layers of screens (and I havn't even count theTiconderoga). The Chinese boomers (SLBMs) with less than 5 (?) will have to face 57 nuclear attack submarines of which 43

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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, 3 Sea-Wolf Class, 11 Virginia Class attack submarines. This means that China's SLBM boomers can't come out to the pacific which further limits its usefulness.

The only silver-lining on China's side is the Wu-14 hypersonic missile, which could potentially easily penetrate the US defence and threaten all cities. The problem is Wu-14 is still only a early prototype, not in production. It is untested, and US is already formulating a response; although I highly doubt in the short to medium term US can intercept such missile.

Wow. This is impressive. You just lay out all these powerful arsenals on paper/in print, which are hugely stacked against China. What do you suggest? Should China surrender unconditionally asap? Is it already too late, given that Trump has won the election over a month now?

I'm concerned, terribly concerned. LOL.

 

[Ultra]

Wow. This is impressive. You just lay out all these powerful arsenals on paper/in print, which are hugely stacked against China. What do you suggest? Should China surrender unconditionally asap? Is it already too late, given that Trump has won the election over a month now?

I'm concerned, terribly concerned. LOL.

You might think this is a joke for now, but in a month or two you will see the true colour of Trump. And I will like to know what you think China's potential response would be in a military confrontation?

You and I know Trump is a bully, he will go "nuclear" quickly as proven in the campaign trail. He won't back down unless he knows the opponent has him BY THE BALLS. Even then he would still not back down like a spoilt kid. China right now has very little leverage on him, while he has a large arsenal of potential reponse against China.

What China need, is like what I have always said before, to be like USSR/Russia. More nukes than you can shake a stick at. More and way faster Wu-14 to carry these nukes. This is what Trump understands and this is why Trump is friendly with Russia and Putin right now.

 

[Insignius]

China should just drop the minimum deterrence posture and embark on a silent rush to parity.
Restarting the enrichment plants of the Thrid Front (underground great wall) is a good starter.

China currently has about 18 tons of HEU 1.8 tonnes of weaponizable plutonium, which should be enough for another 300 - 500 warheads. But more are needed. At least 2000 nukes.

Simultaniously, China must definitely make DF-41s like sausages.
The capability is there; just look at the number of Chinese space launches per year - I'm sure the long-march rockets are harder to make than solid-fueled DF-41s. So, it would be propable that China can add about 30 ICBMs to its arsenal per year, thereby doubling China's ICBM arsenal every year from the current arsenal.

A nuclear deterrence that actually -deters- the US is the foundation of any future military and diplomatic policy towards the US.