China's Anti-Access ASBM Strategy [Defense News]

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by mxiong, Jan 16, 2008.

  1. mxiong
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    mxiong Junior Member

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    China Developing Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles
    BY WENDELL MINNICK


    TAIPEI, Taiwan — China is developing anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) that could sink U.S. aircraft carriers responding to a Taiwan Strait crisis, a development that has some defense analysts and former U.S. and Taiwan government officials envisioning scenarios like this:

    In March 2012, Washington responds to Chinese threats to invade Taiwan by sending two U.S. aircraft carrier groups toward the Taiwan Strait. Rhetoric out of Beijing and Washington escalates with threats and counterthreats, then open battle.

    On the second day, Taiwan and U.S. fighter aircraft engage Chinese aircraft over the strait in what one Taiwanese pilot describes as a hornet’s nest from hell. On the third day, two dozen ASBMs sink the aircraft carriers and several Aegis-equipped destroyers and amphibious warfare ships, killing more than 18,000 U.S. sailors and Marines. In just under an hour, the Chinese inflict four times the losses of the Iraq war.

    “Based on Chinese doctrinal and technical publications, among the more interesting programs has been research and development on advanced conventional ballistic missiles with maneuvering re-entry vehicles and terminal guidance,” said Mark Stokes, a former country director for China on the U.S. defense secretary’s staff and a former military attaché in Beijing.

    “Successful deployment of conventional medium-range ballistic missiles, such as the DF-21C, as well as extended-range short-range ballistic missiles (SBRM), with terminal guidance packages, could hold at risk U.S. carrier battle groups intervening in a crisis.”

    The DF-21C — the road-mobile Dong Feng 21C (East Wind) medium-range ballistic missile with a range of 2,500 kilometers — is the most serious threat to U.S. aircraft carrier groups approaching the Taiwan Strait, said Lin Chong-Pin, former Taiwan deputy minister of defense.

    “The DF-21 can be mounted with five kinds of warheads, all designed with U.S. aircraft carrier groups in mind,” Lin said. “Parenthetically, the humiliation felt by the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] after the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis provided the greatest impetus for Beijing to acquire these capabilities that have been deployed since 2004.”

    In March 1996, the United States sent two aircraft carrier groups to the Taiwan Strait area in response to Beijing’s threats. During the crisis, China test-fired several DF-15 (M-9) SRBMs in the waters around Taiwan and vowed to deny access to the area to U.S. warships in a future conflict.

    “The PLA and China’s defense industry has been focused on being able to deter or disrupt U.S. intervention in a Taiwan Strait crisis for more than a decade,” Stokes said. “Authoritative Chinese writings indicate that a fundamental requirement would be to deny U.S. carrier battle groups and their logistics support access to the area of operations. To do so, the PLA would need an integrated system of sensors, survivable communication systems, and advanced weaponry to achieve the desired effects.”

    Artillery Corps

    The People’s Liberation Army Second Artillery, the heart and soul of China’s missile command, has roughly 1,300 DF-11 and DF-15 short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan.

    China also has the Russian-built SS-N-22 Sunburn anti-ship missiles outfitted on four new Russian refitted Sovremenny-class destroyers in the Chinese Navy. The Sunburn is designed to overcome cruise missile defenses by rising above the target and slamming down through the deck of an aircraft carrier.

    “The capabilities described above constitute ‘deterrence by denial’ and should be viewed in a larger context of China’s deterrence of U.S. aircraft carrier groups in order to seize the island with the least bloodshed and physical damage,” Lin said.

    The United States is not without options. The U.S. Navy is armed with Standard SM-3 missiles and attempts will be made to deny Chinese access to GPS during a conflict. China’s positioning satellites, the geosynchronous Beidou, do not cover the western Pacific.

    However, Lin said China’s possession of an ASBM will throw a wrench into Washington’s decision-making apparatus on what to do about the eruption of a Taiwan Strait crisis.

    “To intervene or not to intervene, that is the question. While the U.S. National Security Council is deliberating with hesitancy, the PLA can seize Taiwan with its conventional forces in a quick war of paralysis rather than annihilation,” Lin said.

    “The still larger context which I have mentioned is that the top priority of Beijing on Taiwan is to ‘absorb without war.’ The military option is the lowest, but under aggressive and speedy preparation. However, even the military option has never been to ‘strike the U.S. and to destroy Taiwan,’ but rather ‘to deter the U.S. and to seize Taiwan’ intact as much as possible.”

    Could the U.S. Intervene?

    Stokes said a “question many friends in Taiwan have asked is whether or not the United States would intervene, should the PRC use force against Taiwan. As time goes on, it may become more of a question of could the U.S. intervene with sufficient alacrity before being handed a fait accompli.”

    Paul Giarra, a retired U.S. naval officer, strategic planner and defense analyst, believes it is debatable whether the U.S. Navy’s visions for fleet ballistic missile defense plans will be sufficient to meet this threat.

    “This points to a strategic-operational campaign of slow reduction of Chinese operational capabilities from great distance, over a considerable period of time, rather than a rapidly concluded attack from forward positions with the advantage of exterior lines of communication and freedom of the seas,” he said.

    “Since the Air Force sneezes when the Navy catches cold in the Asia-Pacific aerospace theater of operations, this Chinese capability thereby will make it difficult for the U.S. military to operate close enough to employ not only its naval surface fleet, but its land-based air power as well, Giarra said. Chinese multiple-warhead [anti-ballistic missiles] will necessitate significant technical and operational responses on the part of the American military.”

    “While history does not repeat, it does rhyme. A Chinese ASBM scenario would appear to bring us back to early 1942, and the start of the long advance on Tokyo.”
     
    #1 mxiong, Jan 16, 2008
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2008
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  2. Violet Oboe
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    Violet Oboe Junior Member

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    Interesting, Lin Chong-Pin appears to know what the ´hinge factor´is: "To intervene or not to intervene, that is the question."

    Obviously he is aware of the fact that ROCA stands already no chance of successfully defending Taiwan against a determined attack by PLA. Though to one pivotal question Mr. Lin Chong-Pin seems to be oblivious: Would ROCA's soldiers be willing to die for a declared lost cause? :mad:

    Indeed history has shown instructively that politicians asking their soldiers to sacrifice their lives for a cause they already have given up are only the first ´rats´ leaving a sinking ship. :D
     
    #2 Violet Oboe, Jan 16, 2008
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2008
  3. akinkhoo
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    akinkhoo Junior Member

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    Janes intel, seem to question the possiblity that some ROCA divisions would go as far as HELP PLA take taiwan since a notable part of the population doesn't support seperatism. it further 'suggest' that tanks would be more useful keeping ROCA forces from defecting than to actually fight PLA... :p
     
  4. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Junior Member
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    The sharing of Scarborough within Philippines eez is very significant.

    That's means China can sue Indonesia shooting at Chinese fishermen near natunas 200 miles eez.

    It also means China can shoot them back and sink those Indonesians navy ships shooting at Chinese fishermen.
     
  5. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    A lot of skeptic still believe that ASBM is a hype.But China has been researching this anti access system for along time 3 or 4 decades and we see progress along the way. China has launched 140 satellite over the year with Shijian,Yaogan NOSS and other sensor.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaogan
    Comparing China surveillance system to Soviet era Rohrsat is like comparing APPLE II to Surface It doesn't make sense . Rohrsat never work properly so they abandon using satellite to find the CBG..

    People need to do their research before they open their mouth. This subject has been debated AD Nauseum
    http://www.chinasignpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/China_SignPost_14_ASBM_IOC_2010-12-26.pdf
    Here is the definitve work by Mark Stokes on ASBM
    http://project2049.net/documents/chinese_anti_ship_ballistic_missile_asbm.pdf
    Or ELINT satellite by the same author
    http://project2049.net/documents/ch...lint_satellite_developments_easton_stokes.pdf

    Now we see HALE system come into picture just as we all here have predicted it .The latest from Jeffrey Lin . Skywalker I use your blog here

    The Xianglong gives China a large UAV capability in the category of the US made RQ-4 Global Hawk. Surpassed only in size by the Divine Eagle double bodied UAV, it is about twelve meters in length, with a twenty meter wingspan and a 10-12 ton maximum takeoff weight (measurements are all approximations). The operational Xianglong is likely to be used for maritime surveillance of foreign bases and warships, as part of the anti-access/area denial kill chain. Its long flight time and large sensor payload, in particular, could allow it to follow aircraft carriers, while vacuuming up a wealth of data, for extended periods of time.

    [​IMG]
    www.top81.cn, via yexu at China Defense Forum

    Another Big Bird

    The 7-10 ton Xianglong, with some stealthy features, would make an ideal EW drone thanks to its huge size, and lone endurance. Its unique 20 meter joined tandem wings increase its range and on station time.

    The system might also move beyond a surveillance role. Chinese engineers have noted that the Xianglong's large payload, endurance and range makes it ideal for electronic warfare (EW) missions, both for gathering intelligence on electronic activity, as well as carrying jammers to disrupt enemy radars and datalinks. In wartime, the Xianglong's high altitude jammers would seek to disrupt not only the radars of enemy fighters and missiles, but also jam and spoof communications between enemy bombers, airborne early warning and control aircraft, drones and even datalinks between satellites, ships, land based missile launchers and missiles. in such role, the EW Xianglong would operate alongside a host of other Chinese EW aircraft, including Y-9 heavy transport jammers, J-16 and JH-7 strike aircraft, in both offensive and defensive operations.
     
    #5 Hendrik_2000, Jul 15, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2016
  6. SamuraiBlue
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    SamuraiBlue Senior Member

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    Just set aside a moment of whether PLA can detect or not the CSG.
    Basically even if PLA can, they will not be able to rely that information during the most crucial terminal stage of reentry since the warhead would be in a stage known as ionization blackout or simply communication blackout where the friction caused between the speeding warhead at hyper-mach speed and the atmosphere causes the air to ionize around the warhead. The ionized air is basically a large cloud of electrons which acts as a barrier for any elector-magnetic communication to go in or out so radar is useless from inside as well.
     
  7. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    That subject has been discussed before Chinese scientist find a way to punch a hole thru ionization. The article is somewhere in this forum Maybe can still find it Actually by using shape and depletive material you can cool to allow for communication to go thru. That is how Enterprises communicate with Houston
     
  8. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    Communicating with Hypersonic Vehicles in Flight

    Researchers propose a potential new way to maintain communication with re-entering spacecraft and other vehicles by matching resonance of the antenna with that of the surrounding hypersonic sheath

    From the Journal:
    [img src="https://publishing.aip.org/sites/de...hlights/images/JAP-Gao-hypersonic-resized.jpg" alt=" NASA" title="As spacecraft, like the Apollo Command Module depicted in this artist's concept, enter the atmosphere, a plasma sheath engulfs them that can cut off communication signals with the ground.
    Journal of Applied Physics
    By Catherine Meyers
    WASHINGTON, D.C., June 16, 2015 – Near the end of the movie Apollo 13, which depicts the harrowing journey of the three astronauts aboard the aborted 1970 lunar mission, the tension mounts in textbook fashion. As the spacecraft hurdles into Earth's atmosphere it is encircled by hot ionized air that cuts off communications with NASA Mission Control in Houston. Each second that the flight controllers' calls for contact remain unanswered is torturously stretched.

    This was not just creative license taken by a Hollywood production team. Apollo 13's communication blackout was more than a minute longer than expected, which added to the suspense, but even routine communications blackouts can create moments of anxiety, as there is no way to know or control the location and state of the spacecraft from the ground.

    "When a re-entry vehicle is unable to be connected, the only thing you can do is pray for it," said Xiaotian Gao, a physicist at the Harbin Institute of Technology in China.
    .

    As spacecraft, like the Apollo Command Module depicted in this artist's concept, enter the atmosphere, a plasma sheath engulfs them that can cut off communication signals with the ground.
    CREDIT: NASA

    Gao and his colleague Binhao Jiang have proposed a new way to maintain communication with spacecraft as they re-enter the atmosphere. The approach might also be applied to other hypersonic vehicles such as futuristic military planes and ballistic missiles. They discuss their approach in this week’s Journal of Applied Physics, from AIP Publishing.

    Communication blackouts with hypersonic vehicles occur because as the craft zips along at five or more times the speed of sound, an envelope of hot ionized air, called a plasma sheath, surrounds it. This plasma sheath will reflect electromagnetic signals under most conditions, cutting off connection with anything outside of the vehicle. However, under certain special conditions, a plasma sheath can actually enhance the radiation from a communication antenna.

    Gao and his colleagues reasoned that it would be possible to replicate these special conditions in ordinary hypersonic flight by redesigning the antenna. The researchers first analyzed earlier experiments and found that the special signal enhancement could be explained by a resonance, or matched electromagnetic oscillations, between the plasma sheath and the surrounding air. They propose adding a "matched layer" to ordinary communication antennas to create the desired resonant conditions during normal hypersonic flight.

    The matched layer works because it acts as like a capacitor -- a type of electrical energy storage unit -- in the antenna circuit, Gao explained. The plasma sheath, on the other hand, acts like an inductor, which resists changes in an electric current passing through it. When a capacitor and an inductor are paired together, they can form a resonant circuit. "Once the resonance is reached, the energy can be exchanged between them steadily and losslessly, like real capacitance and inductance do in a circuit," Gao said. "As a result, the electromagnetic radiation can propagate through the matched layer and the plasma sheath like they do not exist."

    For the resonance to work, the thickness of the matched layer and the plasma sheath must be smaller than the wavelength of the electromagnetic waves used to communicate, so the approach would be ineffective if the antenna frequency were too high, Gao noted.

    The properties of the plasma sheath can change during flight, but Gao and his colleagues believe their matched layer can adjust for these changes if it is made from a material whose electromagnetic properties can be tuned with an electrical signal.

    "We don’t need to know exactly the properties of the plasma layer, but we need to know the ranges for these properties. The matched layer will be adjusted by an automatic control system, so we only need to know the ranges to make sure this whole system can work appropriately," Gao said.

    The team is not the first to try to solve the communication blackout problem, but their approach has advantages over other attempts. For example, the equipment needed to implement the matched layer is much lighter than the equipment required by other methods, such as trying to control the electrons in the plasma with an applied magnetic field, or injecting a liquid into the plasma to reduce its electron density. The matched layer approach also doesn't rely on a particular shape of vehicle to work, doesn't consume additional energy and can adapt to changes of the plasma sheath.


    More AIP Publishing in the News
     
    #8 Hendrik_2000, Jul 15, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2016
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  9. SamuraiBlue
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    SamuraiBlue Senior Member

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    The shuttles were able to communicate due to sheer size and shape where the vertical tail was outside the ionization envelop. I doubt a war head is going to have that much size and configured in a way to leave parts sticking out.

    As for the recent article it's still a concept that had not been tested so it's going to take another 5~10 years to actually get it working.
     
  10. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    That is the civilian research I bet the military research is more advance.But I don't think the Chinese military is stupid enough that they deploy the missile without resolving the communication hurdle.

    Because they don't reveal doesn't mean they don't exist. I put up the article to show that it is not impossible to communicate thru the plasma. The article doesn't say anything if it a concept . It show one way of communicating thru the plasma.
    Like any other scientific paper it only show concept It doesn't show the detail or procedure .That is secret. patent
     
    #10 Hendrik_2000, Jul 15, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2016
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