China-US-Taiwan Economic (Temp closed-pls read my last post)

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Equation

Lieutenant General
What i mean is that china doesnt have military options regarding the scenario described above. US forces are ready to go to taiwan at a moment´s notice, even before china fires a missile. And besides, wars cant be won with missiles. Even if china fires 2000 missiles (and assuming many wont be shot down/fail/miss target, something that is unlikely) it still wont conquer taiwan and it will start a war with US. As for the nuclear option, easy to say, suicide to do.

So are China's forces ready to go to Taiwan to reclaim their land. And I'm talking about boots on the ground in a brigade size units, not preemptive strikes. The US has to clear and secure both the skies and seas in order to land that large size of troops into Taiwan. And we already know that will be a huge price to pay already for the US.

US navy warships wouldnt need to be in chinese territorial waters to protect taiwan.

But they are in range of China's DF-21 and the more advance DF-26 ASBM.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
So are China's forces ready to go to Taiwan to reclaim their land. And I'm talking about boots on the ground in a brigade size units, not preemptive strikes. The US has to clear and secure both the skies and seas in order to land that large size of troops into Taiwan. And we already know that will be a huge price to pay already for the US.

But they are in range of China's DF-21 and the more advance DF-26 ASBM.

we should stop replying to @Orthan ... he/she needs to read the rules first and then need to read the history/military matters much more ... we are wasting our resources here :(:(
 

Orthan

Senior Member
Because America is a democracy(...)A missile fail/miss the target when the target is a 14,000 square mile island??(...)The world can burn to nuclear ash but Taiwan cannot have independence(...)

Just because the US is a democracy doesnt mean that they cant make decisions rapidly, especially if they sense military trouble ahead. In any military conflict, armies attack military/civilian targets, not the entire country(forests, hills)! Why are you talking about 14000 square miles ? as for the nuclear war, well im very much doubful that the chinese people and its leadership agree with that.

However US warships docking in Taiwan is simply not going to happen, this is way too provocative and like many said China are much more motivated than US in this.(...)but there will be far more Chinese ships than US ships so US will probably back down, if not, then both side will play the ramming game and again, Chinese ships will outnumber US ships so again China will come out on top.

Yea, i very much doubt that it will happen. Of course its too provocative, and everybody knows it. But the fact that its been aproved by a senate commitee is not a good thing for the US-china relationship, and it is always a reminder that the taiwan issue is a complex one. As for the ramming, could happen, but i doubt that it could go on in a large scale. Eventually, someone will get hurt and important ships severy damaged/sunk and then things will get ugly.

As you insist calling Taiwan as a "country"(...)The subject is sensitive to people from both mainland and Taiwan, so I suggest we avoid it

Im calling taiwan a "country" only in a sense of a political entity, not as an independent country. Im not calling taiwan a independent country, nor should i be in this discussion. Im only discussing military. In fact, even IF the US forces land in taiwan, doesnt mean that they will recognize the independence of taiwan. And i agree that this topic is sensitive for people in china and taiwan, and in this forum. But just because its sensitive, doesnt mean that it doesnt exist.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Just because the US is a democracy doesnt mean that they cant make decisions rapidly, especially if they sense military trouble ahead. In any military conflict, armies attack military/civilian targets, not the entire country(forests, hills)! Why are you talking about 14000 square miles ? as for the nuclear war, well im very much doubful that the chinese people and its leadership agree with that.
Democracies are slow to respond; the system is supposed to prevent corruption but it also means that it must run its course through many people and checks. The US didn't react quickly enough on Crimea or Georgia. The US still can't form a cohesive reaction on the SCS. That you think they can make rapid decisions in this context is unsupported, especially when it comes to a decision that they know can provoke nuclear war. And to be honest, China would much like to keep the US out of the conflict, but if the US insists on being in Taiwan, then for China, there's nowhere to go except to strike the island with them on it and prepare for full scale war. Keeping them off is to protect them from throwing away their lives there and making things difficult for everyone (USA, Mainland China, and ROC); it is NOT because China can only act without them there.

You mean that a missile might miss a military target and destroy a city? That might happen, but not often though. Chinese missile accuracy is very high as it was greatly valued since Mao Zedong's time as an asymmetric warfare route to develop; China is the only country to develop a land-based ballistic missile with the accuracy to hit moving ships thousands of miles away. It would be fantasy to think anything other than that the vast majority will successfully hit their targets. But if China decides to blanket bomb 2,000 missiles over Taiwan, it won't be much of a difference anyway. If it fires a few hundred, it may be to cripple Taiwan's military, but if it fires 2,000 then a red line was probably reached where it was decided that it would be too difficult to take Taiwan with any preservation of the island's resources, so it must be completely destroyed to show the world the fate of traitors. Then it would reduce the issue to who owns a smoking rock. It's not ideal but most Chinese can live with that. They cannot live with Taiwan's independence.

That you think the Chinese are not prepared to go to nuclear war for Taiwan is precisely why you are too ignorant on the Taiwan topic to make any meaningful contribution. You say it's a complicated topic but you clearly don't understand what that means. China's leadership has declared nuclear war before Taiwan's independence and the Chinese people will not tolerate the government backing away. I've basically never met a Chinese person who grew up in China who thought that Taiwan should be independent under any circumstance; it's a fervent issue that people feel strongly about. I personally don't know how I could live with the shame if Taiwan was to be allowed independence; I'd much rather die in the war. Your statement that China would rather let Taiwan go than go to nuclear war disqualifies you from making any progress here. Because you think this, that's why everyone here is basically talking to a wall when trying to educate you on the situation.

On the other hand, the US is a country that would not go to lengths for Taiwan, as it sees it as a pawn. If the US were interested in democracy or "freeing" Taiwan, it would have done so decades ago. In the 80's and '90's China was an insect compared to its modern day self. At any day, the US could have acted but it always weighed the benefits and risks of helping Taiwan and China has always provided it with enough incentive in a combination of economic, diplomatic, and militaristic ways, to back off. That's why this issue is still here today and I don't see how in 2017, China will be unable to do at least what it had done for so many years before. Yet, the only permanent incentive for the US to let the issue die and to stop milking this pawn must be an overwhelmingly powerful China, which is where we're headed today.
 
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sanblvd

Junior Member
Registered Member
Its like.... talking to a wall. It seems Orthan still think Taiwan issue is just like another issues with China such as like trade dispute, tariff, human rights issues, North Korea etc.. but its really not, Chinese unification is literally the foundation of the current Chinese dynasty.

Let me put it in a similar situation from US perspective to make you understand, in the rivalry between US and China, why won't China try to gain the upper hand by providing nuclear weapon to Islamic terrorist with instruction for them to use in US? Why won't China give Cuba and Venezuela nuclear weapon? After all, any of those actions would in theory give China great leverage and hold US hostage.

China won't do it because China knows doing any of the action above is same as declare war on US and destabilized the whole world order.

Taiwan seems such as trivial matter to you... but it has every importance as Chinese giving nuke to Cuba, I hope this make sense to you somewhat.
 

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
Some guy came out say Taiwan solution can not wait till 2049. We shall see some quick development in the next 2-3 months. The conditions are met for China to go on the offensive. It is likely Xi's another major policy move after the party congress.
 
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