China-US-Taiwan relations

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by Orthan, Jun 29, 2017.

  1. Orthan
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    Orthan New Member

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    I couldnt find any thread to post this, and since this is a matter of paramount importance in the region, i created this thread.

    This is a reuters article about a bill approved by an US senate committee and to be send to the US congress for approval.

    http://in.reuters.com/article/usa-china-taiwan-idINKBN19K2E4?rpc=401&

    what do you think of it? IMO, even if it doesnt pass in the US congress, it could be a signal that the US-relations regarding taiwan are deteriorating. Too many things are happening betwen the 2 nations: trade, NK, taiwan, SCS. Eventually, something may give. But will it touch the taiwan issue?
     
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  2. PiSigma
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    PiSigma "the engineer"

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    This thread is in the red zone of political discussion. Read the rules orthan.

    This is essentially typical US foreign policy. If they want China to do something for them, they will manufacture another issue elsewhere first. And then tell China, we will remove this new issue we created for you if you have us with an existing problem. Basically they are hoping to get free help for existing problems without really giving anything in return.
     
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  3. Orthan
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    Orthan New Member

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    I dont think this is just political. Its definetly also military. To have port visits again by the US navy after almost 30 years could be a road for a eventual change in the military calculus betwen china and taiwan. Just imagine if the US places forces in taiwan again.
     
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  4. PiSigma
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    PiSigma "the engineer"

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    Read the rules. It is pretty clearly stated there will be no discussion of such matters. All politics is an extension of military and vice versa.
     
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  5. Orthan
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    Orthan New Member

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    I havent read these rules, so perhabs what you are saying is right. But if that so, then we cant have discussion on the SCS, korean peninsula, etc, and i still see those threads open.

    Unless they say that taiwan is a special subject, IMO.
     
  6. PiSigma
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    PiSigma "the engineer"

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    There are special subjects we don't discuss in this forum, Taiwan is one of them. I suggest you go read the rules first.
     
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  7. delft
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    delft Senior Member

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    Such a change in US policy would cause a huge crisis in China-US relation and would be very much more political than military.
     
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  8. Orthan
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    Orthan New Member

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    I agree that if that were to happen, it would create a huge crisis in the china-US relationship, but it would be even more military than political. The chinese military would have to radically change its douctrine. With the presence of US naval, air and even land assets in taiwan, PLA would have to go defensive, severely curtailing its naval expansion, and dedicating much more to air assets, submarines and long range missiles.
     
  9. plawolf
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    plawolf Senior Member

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    Simple bottom line is China will not permit US military boots on the ground in Taiwan.

    If there was a serious likelihood of that happening, Beijing would pre-emptively strike and retake Taiwan before US troops even set off for the island.

    Otherwise, if US military personnel are already deployed on Taiwan, that would effectively create a tripwire where any military action by the mainland to take Taiwan would almost certainly draw the US directly into the conflict. That would embolden the separatist elements within Taiwan to try and cross China's red lines regarding independence.

    If the shooting starts before US military forces are on the island, for the US to get involved would require a very deliberate choice to fight China directly, that many doubt any sitting US president would be willing to make given the costs of doing so.

    If there are already US forces on the island, it can be argued that US intervention is one of self defence to protect those assets. Which is the entire point of this legislation- to try and force the hand of any US president into direct military intervention irrespective of whether they really want to get involved.
     
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  10. Orthan
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    Orthan New Member

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    Militarly, If that happens, what can china do about it? the way i see it, china has no options here. Right now it cant invade the main taiwan island. And it certainly couldnt attack before US forces land there (or do you think that the US wouldnt be aware to chinese military preparations? they would be large enough to see). Unable to invade or even attack taiwan, china doesnt have military options, even if it means that taiwan could declare independence down the line (and i think that the chinese leaders know it).

    The only thing to discuss here is how would the chinese military doctrine envolve to adjust to the presence of US forces in taiwan.
     
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