China-US-Taiwan Economic (Temp closed-pls read my last post)

Air Force Brat said:

Thank you Blitzo for being honest with the rest of us, that you feel an anti US/Western sentiment is OK! It is for this reason that you should decline the invitation to be a moderator, if ever actually offered by Webby?? Sino Defense Forum has been the preeminent Defense Forum in many circles because of the outstanding character and quality of all of our MOD's who have done an exemplary and thankless job, as these negative, accusatory posts well illustrate!

Click to expand...

The anti us/western sentiments on SDF have been very well taken care of by Jeff. An argument could reasonably be made that perhaps it is too well taken care of especially in cases where members are merely explaining facts and perspectives from PR China. As Blitzo puts it, their views can be considered as pro china. Do those views run counter to the US/western narratives/views championed by you? Of course they are. Let us not kid ourselves. Deep down China and US are geopolitical rivals engaging each other covertly and in the peripherals even though their economic interdependence makes direct conflicts less and less likely.

If you are going to classify reasonable pro china viewpoints as anti western/us and condemn them, that's your prerogative. But eliminating pro-china views on SDF is not likely to help the development of this forum. What makes SDF unique and refreshing (for me personally) is that this forum doesn't consist of a regurgitation of the usual western mainstream talking points and many members (pro-china) understand the nuance of PLA watching.

Again, I would like to support Blitzo's elevation to moderator so that reasonable pro china views are not automatically treated as anti western/us. I think it's vital that we hear more about how Chinese view geopolitical/military developments.

BD Popeye's absence would have killed this forum, had not Jeff Head stepped up, at great personal expense and time, and committed to keeping SDF fair and balanced, Deino and Siege, and the rest or our mods have given this their best as well, in spite of Moderators losing priveledges due to forum format changes..

Click to expand...

While I agree BD was a great member who shared many insights on military issues from a technical standpoints, his absence hasn't really caused the forum to shut down has it? Anyway, if my memory serves me correctly, BD resigned as a moderator during the Ukrainian crisis where he wanted to shut down Ukrainian crisis discussion and stop members from sharing Russian narratives. Sampan and BD had a disagreement over that.

Thankfully Webby has been able and willing to restore Moderator's priveledges, and the Forum is already shaping up to be a better place, as you noted, Jeff has stood up valiantly in spite of terminal cancer to lead, and do so honestly and fairly to all,, I for one stand 110% behind our moderators and behind the Webmaster as well?? I couldn't have blamed him at any point for pulling the plug on SDF in light of recent "nastiness" by certain members...those who feel no compunction about disrespecting and undermining our current outstanding leadership, as well as other posters with whom they happen to disagree??

Click to expand...

Jeff should be commanded for performing his role while battling cancer. However, his absence was noted as Blitzo correctly pointed out. Also leaders are not infallible. Dissents are healthy for the long term viability of any organisations, it is not undermining or disrespectful to point out ones' concerns.

Btw, has webmaster actually communicated to you that he wants to abandon SDF because of the so called "nastiness"? Only you so far have brought up this point many times. If it's possible, would you kindly share the relevant communications with the rest of us?

SinoSoldier said:

Perhaps it has escaped you that Chinese officials have made such bombastic remarks in the past. Unless amendments are made to the anti-secession law to accommodate this new article, I wouldn't hold my breath for anything.

Click to expand...

Regardless the rest of "bombastic(you mean bluffing?)" thing, I don't know any country has a specific law in order to go to war when its territory integrity is violated.

The anti-secession law is a specific law targeting a "domestic" matter, it is not meant and needed for a foreign invasion.

Whether one can treat Li's word as bluffing, it is really up to individual's preference to believe. But just remind you that there was similar occasion in the 1958 when all three parties were involved in a bombardment. What makes you think this time around it is just a war of words than shells?

While on the one hand, there is nothing new in terms of principle and policy changing this time except the minister made the principle in plain words, I do not think anyone can just dismiss these plain words because that means dismissing the fundamental position of China, that is both incorrect to the reality and very dangerous in practical handling on the ground.

taxiya said:

Regardless the rest of "bombastic(you mean bluffing?)" thing, I don't know any country has a specific law in order to go to war when its territory integrity is violated.

The anti-secession law is a specific law targeting a "domestic" matter, it is not meant and needed for a foreign invasion.

Whether one can treat Li's word as bluffing, it is really up to individual's preference to believe. But just remind you that there was similar occasion in the 1958 when all three parties were involved in a bombardment. What makes you think this time around it is just a war of words than shells?

While on the one hand, there is nothing new in terms of principle and policy changing this time except the minister made the principle in plain words, I do not think anyone can just dismiss these plain words because that means dismissing the fundamental position of China, that is both incorrect to the reality and very dangerous in practical handling on the ground.

Click to expand...

There is very little room for bluffing between nations who can deploy satellites and hack each other.

If Li had said what he said only 10 years ago, he would have been laughed at. Today, he is taken seriously. Not so much, I suspect, that the US really believe China would go to war, but that it effectively communicates China's stance on the matter.

Li's remarks are diplomatic language, not policy.

Jura said:

OK, it shows how contentious the topic of Taiwan is
imagine if now the USN announced its warships would sail there

Click to expand...

Indeed, it is. The 1995 visit to the US by the former Taiwanese "President" Lee Tenghui had led to "the second Taiwan Strait crisis", with China conducting military exercises and lobbing ballistic missiles around Taiwan and the US sending two CBGs close to Taiwan. To many who don't know the Taiwan situation very well or who simply harbor strong anti-China feelings, what's the big deal? The old man was just trying to visit his alma mater to deliver some speeches (in individual or official capacity, as anyone can interpret in his/her own). Nevertheless, it was highly political and symbolic; Taiwan knew it, the US knew it, and China full understood it.

Now, imagine the US starts to send military ships to Taiwan, after it dropped diplomatic recognition of the island, discontinued the mutual defense treaty with Taiwan and withdrew military forces from the island (断交、废约、撤军) as the preconditions to establish formal diplomatic relationship with PRC in 1979, after over a quarter century of hostilities between the two countries and years of negotiations to restore normal relations - stuck mostly over status of Taiwan since it made so much sense for everything else. This time, depending on the circumstances, China might act more strongly than conducting military exercises and shooting a few short-range ballistic missiles and the US would have to send much more than two CBGs to demonstrate its resolve and "deter" the red communists.

weig2000 said:

Indeed, it is. The 1995 visit to the US by the former Taiwanese "President" Lee Tenghui had led to "the second Taiwan Strait crisis", with China conducting military exercises and lobbying ballistic missiles around Taiwan and the US sending two CBGs close to Taiwan. To many who don't know the Taiwan situation very well or who simple harbor strong anti-China feelings, what's the big deal? The old man was just trying to visit his old alma mater to deliver some speeches (in individual or official capacity, as anyone can interpret in his/her own). Nevertheless, it was highly political and symbolic; Taiwan knew it, the US knew it, and China full understood it.

Now, imagine the US starts to send military ships to Taiwan, after it dropped diplomatic recognition of the island, discontinued the mutual defense treaty with Taiwan and withdrew military forces from the island (断交、废约、撤军) as the preconditions to establish formal diplomatic relationship with PRC in 1979, after over a quarter century of hostilities between the two countries and years of negotiations to restore normal relations - stuck mostly over status of Taiwan since it made so much sense for everything else. This time, depending on the circumstances, China might act more strongly than conducting military exercises and shooting a few short-range ballistic missiles and the US would have to send much more than two CBGs to demonstrate its resolve and "deter" the red communists.

Click to expand...

I suspect if something similar happened again, we would see a sudden flare up in the NK situation. Maybe Kim would lob a missile or two over Japan, or sink a SK ship...

solarz said:

There is very little room for bluffing between nations who can deploy satellites and hack each other.

If Li had said what he said only 10 years ago, he would have been laughed at. Today, he is taken seriously. Not so much, I suspect, that the US really believe China would go to war, but that it effectively communicates China's stance on the matter.

Li's remarks are diplomatic language, not policy.

Click to expand...

Chinese government officials don't usually make statements that Li made unless he got approval from the higher up. This would suggest that his words are a reflection of policy unless foreign ministry openly denies which it hasn't. Chinese officials can get censured for making wrong statements, statements that are contrary to state polices in the public (where journalists are around). A good way to tell is to see whether Li is going to be recalled within a year. If he still serves or is promoted after this, then his words can be considered as a reflection of policy.

weig2000 said:

Indeed, it is. The 1995 visit to the US by the former Taiwanese "President" Lee Tenghui had led to "the second Taiwan Strait crisis", with China conducting military exercises and lobbing ballistic missiles around Taiwan and the US sending two CBGs close to Taiwan. To many who don't know the Taiwan situation very well or who simply harbor strong anti-China feelings, what's the big deal? The old man was just trying to visit his alma mater to deliver some speeches (in individual or official capacity, as anyone can interpret in his/her own). Nevertheless, it was highly political and symbolic; Taiwan knew it, the US knew it, and China full understood it.

Now, imagine the US starts to send military ships to Taiwan, after it dropped diplomatic recognition of the island, discontinued the mutual defense treaty with Taiwan and withdrew military forces from the island (断交、废约、撤军) as the preconditions to establish formal diplomatic relationship with PRC in 1979, after over a quarter century of hostilities between the two countries and years of negotiations to restore normal relations - stuck mostly over status of Taiwan since it made so much sense for everything else. This time, depending on the circumstances, China might act more strongly than conducting military exercises and shooting a few short-range ballistic missiles and the US would have to send much more than two CBGs to demonstrate its resolve and "deter" the red communists.

Click to expand...

LOL Today at 8:29 PM
I actually tried to express the situation in this thread had been so tense somebody deleted also posts which were innocuous, and it might get worse

but yeah, the chunk you quoted is probably more general than I meant it to be

anyway I think a poster whose post gets deleted should be notified, and a reason for the deletion should be given to him/her

texx1 said:

Chinese government officials don't usually make statements that Li made unless he got approval from the higher up. This would suggest that his words are a reflection of policy unless foreign ministry openly denies which it hasn't. Chinese officials can get censured for making wrong statements, statements that are contrary to state polices in the public (where journalists are around). A good way to tell is to see whether Li is going to be recalled within a year. If he still serves or is promoted after this, then his words can be considered as a reflection of policy.

Click to expand...

If Li succeeds in getting the US to back off their plans to visit Taiwan, then he will likely be commended, regardless of what he said.

Air Force Brat said:

Thank you Blitzo for being honest with the rest of us, that you feel an anti US/Western sentiment is OK! It is for this reason that you should decline the invitation to be a moderator, if ever actually offered by Webby?? Sino Defense Forum has been the preeminent Defense Forum in many circles because of the outstanding character and quality of all of our MOD's who have done an exemplary and thankless job, as these negative, accusatory posts well illustrate!

BD Popeye's absence would have killed this forum, had not Jeff Head stepped up, at great personal expense and time, and committed to keeping SDF fair and balanced, Deino and Siege, and the rest or our mods have given this their best as well, in spite of Moderators losing priveledges due to forum format changes..

Thankfully Webby has been able and willing to restore Moderator's priveledges, and the Forum is already shaping up to be a better place, as you noted, Jeff has stood up valiantly in spite of terminal cancer to lead, and do so honestly and fairly to all,, I for one stand 110% behind our moderators and behind the Webmaster as well?? I couldn't have blamed him at any point for pulling the plug on SDF in light of recent "nastiness" by certain members...those who feel no compunction about disrespecting and undermining our current outstanding leadership, as well as other posters with whom they happen to disagree??

Click to expand...

The difference is that there are also some moderators who are also quite willing to tolerate anti-China sentiments from various members as well.


The reason that Sinodefence forum is a pre-eminent forum for PLA watching is because of the members here who are able to bring together rumours, information and analysis of new Chinese military developments, and those overwhelmingly tend to be overseas Chinese members.
Those members also sometimes hold what you and Jeff may call "anti-US" sentiment (and what those members would instead call "pro-China" sentiment), but the problem is how do we keep Sinodefence forum as a good forum for PLA watching (and not becoming just another English language forum that talks about everything rather than specializing in good PLA discussion), while not offending other people who hold different opinions.
That is to say, people can have differing opinions so long as certain red lines are in place and so long as they are not deliberately trying to offend each other. I think both of these aspects are rather blurry at the moment.


And this isn't even getting into the issue of the (usually non-Chinese) members who hold anti-China views and get away with it as well.
The road runs both ways, unfortunately.

weig2000 said:

Indeed, it is. The 1995 visit to the US by the former Taiwanese "President" Lee Tenghui had led to "the second Taiwan Strait crisis", with China conducting military exercises and lobbing ballistic missiles around Taiwan and the US sending two CBGs close to Taiwan.

Click to expand...

Third Taiwan Strait crisis, I think.

To many who don't know the Taiwan situation very well or who simply harbor strong anti-China feelings, what's the big deal? The old man was just trying to visit his alma mater to deliver some speeches (in individual or official capacity, as anyone can interpret in his/her own). Nevertheless, it was highly political and symbolic; Taiwan knew it, the US knew it, and China full understood it.

Now, imagine the US starts to send military ships to Taiwan, after it dropped diplomatic recognition of the island, discontinued the mutual defense treaty with Taiwan and withdrew military forces from the island (断交、废约、撤军) as the preconditions to establish formal diplomatic relationship with PRC in 1979, after over a quarter century of hostilities between the two countries and years of negotiations to restore normal relations - stuck mostly over status of Taiwan since it made so much sense for everything else. This time, depending on the circumstances, China might act more strongly than conducting military exercises and shooting a few short-range ballistic missiles and the US would have to send much more than two CBGs to demonstrate its resolve and "deter" the red communists.

Click to expand...

Exactly. I think it speaks to the umm, diversity of this board, that not everyone knows how very serious Taiwan is for China.

It is the single core issue that China is concerned about, and any mild deviation towards potentially granting or resulting in Taiwan having more political autonomy towards a greater risk of formal political independence will produce a substantial and forceful Chinese response.