China-US-Taiwan Economic (Temp closed-pls read my last post)

Jeff Head · Dec 13, 2017

texx1 said:
Jeff, I feel like I have to say this. You can sanction me if you want.

What is with this obsession about anti west/ anti American sentiments? There have been just as many occasions where members expressed anti china sentiments. Maybe mods should come down hard on anti china sentiment on SDF just as they want to focus on anti western views.

For you Jeff specifically, if you truly wanted to make SDF a success, you really should stop using blue ink to write your political opinions in your moderating comments.

Well, you are continuing a discussion that has been stopped so your post just like Jobjeds after the discussion were stopped will be deleted.

But I will say this, I have been just as hard and against anti-Chinese, and anti-Russian, etc. posters as I have those expressing anti-western, etc. bias. As have other moderators. SD is not a place for any of that.

My Blue Ink is used to interject modertion...notice above what the blue said, Understand that is the moderation. I am not going to argue how I moderate with you. I have been on SD a long time and moderating like this a long time...and I have had the best interest of SD in mind when I do...you can believe what you will.

Please do not get caught up in these types of rhetoric, theatrics, and maneuvering that Jobjed has started, they are not good for the forum. SD is a forum about defense.and a very good one. It is not about politics and the rules state this very plainly.

SD has been and will continue to be a forum that is open to all., and very successful.

But again, it is a defense forum, not a platform for politics those other types of things, plain and simple.

So again, I will say to you too.

Please let this conversation go

Equation · Dec 13, 2017

Air Force Brat said:
actually China will have the same reaction to a US warship making a port of call on Taiwan, as the US has with China piling sand up and declaring that is China's sovereign territory, ( which by the way is far, far, more provocative),,, they won't like it, and they will show their displeasure, (such as the US conducting FON ops in the SCS?

Is it more 'provocative' than regime changing? Last time I checked China didn't caused chaos and death for "piling sand up" on a legitimate argument of it's territory.

Air Force Brat said:
the Chinese ambassador's statement is certainly for the consumption of everyone with an interest, and his venue was chosen for precisely that reason, it is posturing, or honestly "positioning" is a much better word,,, its serious business, but its still posturing, as much for domestic Chinese consumption, Taiwanese consumption, and a veiled threat against the US not to get involved, but truth is we are involved, and we will continue to be involved.......

just a fact of life for each of us?? we may not like it, but we all have to deal with it??

Involved in what immoral action? To contain the PRC through indirect and covert actions by any means? Taiwan is a part of the PRC know matter what some may like to think otherwise.

solarz · Dec 13, 2017

plawolf said:
There are also practicality concerns. If port visits becomes the norm, why not a naval base to help support those port visits?

Apart from the slippery slope argument, there is also the fear that an administration hell bent on independence might try to force America’s hand, by unilaterally declaring independence when an USN fleet is on a port call stopover.

China cannot launch military operations without effectively guaranteeing US direct military involvement in the conflict while the US fleet is there, but nor could Chins just wait for the USN fleet to pull out before attacking, as it would be very easy to imagine a situation where one or more USN ships suddenly started suffering ‘mechanical problems’ and could not depart for some time.

The US does have past form into stretching such temporary arrangements into longstanding facts on the ground.

By drawing the red line at the point where foreign warships crosses the 12nm mark, China will have some legal merit, since even the US recognises Taiwan as part of China, so China can very reasonably argue that any foreign warships within 12nm of Taiwan is violating Chinese territorial waters.

In addition, if China obliterates the port that the USN ships wants to dock at while they are still several miles out, the USN cannot dock there, and only a fool would keep his ships in the area when missiles are raining down, since the USN are not in a habit of promoting fools to captains, the odds are good the USN fleet will make full speed for open water immediately in such a scenario.

That means the US will have to make the very deliberate choice to get involved militarily, instead of being involved by default from the start with the choice of whether to stay involved or pull out.

The line for military force against Taiwan has always been a declaration of independence. Anything else can be worked out with diplomacy. If we start down the slippery slope of war because such and such action *could* lead to a declaration of independence, then where does it stop?

One of the major reasons why the Mainland has been able to stabilize relations with Taiwan is because of this pledge.

The US, even under Trump, is no fool. Just as the tail does not wag the dog, the US is not going to allow Taiwan to drag it into a war it is unwilling to enter. There's a good reason the US wanted to maintain status quo even in the 90's, when it was the sole superpower. That reason is all the more compelling now that the Chinese military has become far more formidable. Unlike Japan, the US does not have a defence treaty with Taiwan, it does not have the obligation to defend Taiwan if it doesn't want to.

It has become clear to me that Li Kexin was recounting a private conversation with some American congressmen, and that his words are not official policy. The official Chinese response made it clear that nothing regarding Taiwan has changed.

weig2000 · Dec 13, 2017

solarz said:
The line for military force against Taiwan has always been a declaration of independence. Anything else can be worked out with diplomacy.

That's wrong. So wrong. Totally wrong. Declaration of independence is surely and clearly a case for military action, but so are a number of other scenarios that could potentially lead to independence or interpreted as de jure independence, for example, changing the part of ROC constitution that claims ROC contains whole both mainland China and Taiwan, conducting referendum on Taiwan's sovereignty, and other "major events" of similar nature. Internal riot or disorder beyond effective control of Taiwanese government, foreign invasion of Taiwan, etc., all belong to this category, although China has never clearly specify exhaustively each and every individual. But these are the type of "major events" that China's Anti-Secession Law was written to guard against. Indeed, even "dragging its feet indefinitely against unification" can be a cause for unification via non-peaceful mean.

Read China's Anti-Secession Law.

solarz said:
If we start down the slippery slope of war because such and such action *could* lead to a declaration of independence, then where does it stop?

See above. It stops when China does not see the action or activity constitute a serious threat to her sovereignty and national unity. China, and only China, can decide whether a red line is crossed when it comes to these kind of matters. And China backs it up with its might and national will when it comes to Taiwan (actually other sovereignty matters too, but I want to highlight Taiwan specifically here).

In other news, PLAAF has sent waves of H-6Ks, J-11Bs, Su-30s, Y-8 MPAs, tankers beyond the first island chain, and specifically announced in their Weibo accounts that these planes have "circled around the island." This has become routine.

It's very clear that Li Kexin is NOT acting and speaking in a private capacity. And what he said is not meant for "domestic consumption" as someone claimed.

solarz · Dec 13, 2017

weig2000 said:
That's wrong. So wrong. Totally wrong. Declaration of independence is surely and clearly a case for military action, but so are a number of other scenarios that could potentially lead to independence or interpreted as de jure independence, for example, changing the part of ROC constitution that claims ROC contains whole both mainland China and Taiwan, conducting referendum on Taiwan's sovereignty, and other "major events" of similar nature. Internal riot or disorder beyond effective control of Taiwanese government, foreign invasion of Taiwan, etc., all belong to this category, although China has never clearly specify exhaustively each and every individual. But these are the type of "major events" that China's Anti-Secession Law was written to guard against. Indeed, even "dragging its feet indefinitely against unification" can be a cause for unification via non-peaceful mean.

None of those events you listed is even in the same category as a foreign naval visit to a Taiwan port. "Major events" are meant to cover things that would result in Taiwan slipping irrevocably away without intervention. If there was evidence of an American move to militarily reinforce Taiwan in preparation for a declaration of independence, that would be a major event covered under the law. A foreign naval visit to a Taiwanese port is not comparable in any way.

Read China's Anti-Secession Law.
See above. It stops when China does not see the action or activity constitute a serious threat to her sovereignty and national unity. China, and only China, can decide whether a red line is crossed when it comes to these kind of matters. And China backs it up with its might and national will when it comes to Taiwan (actually other sovereignty matters too, but I want to highlight Taiwan specifically here).

In other news, PLAAF has sent waves of H-6Ks, J-11Bs, Su-30s, Y-8 MPAs, tankers beyond the first island chain, and specifically announced in their Weibo accounts that these planes have "circled around the island." This has become routine.

It's very clear that Li Kexin is NOT acting and speaking in a private capacity. And what he said is not meant for "domestic consumption" as someone claimed.

I would remind you that of the ten articles of the Anti-Secession Law, only article 8 deals with non-peaceful action. Articles 5, 6, and 7 all deal with peaceful negotiation. Article 9 deals with the protection of Taiwanese civilians and civilian interests in the event of a non-peaceful action.

Clearly, the PRC is highly committed to peaceful reunification. Li Kexin's words make sense in the context of dealing with American politicians, but in the absence of any provocative Taiwanese actions, is counter-productive toward better cross-strait relations and future negotiations.

I would further remind you that international coverage of Li's words were first brought forth by Western and Taiwanese media. I do not think I need to spell out their motives and agendas. Suffice it to say, if China had actually wanted Li's words to be a message to Taiwan, we would have read it from Xinhua first.

weig2000 · Dec 13, 2017

solarz said:
None of those events you listed is even in the same category as a foreign naval visit to a Taiwan port. "Major events" are meant to cover things that would result in Taiwan slipping irrevocably away without intervention. If there was evidence of an American move to militarily reinforce Taiwan in preparation for a declaration of independence, that would be a major event covered under the law. A foreign naval visit to a Taiwanese port is not comparable in any way.

I was very specifically directing at your statement: "The line for military force against Taiwan has always been a declaration of independence. Anything else can be worked out with diplomacy."

solarz said:
Clearly, the PRC is highly committed to peaceful reunification. Li Kexin's words make sense in the context of dealing with American politicians,

Agreed.

solarz said:
but in the absence of any provocative Taiwanese actions, is counter-productive toward better cross-strait relations and future negotiations.

solarz said:

It takes two to tango. If the US military ship wants to visit Taiwanese port, Taiwan can be incentivized/encouraged to deny the request, even for technical reasons. That way, it spares everyone a lot of troubles. To say that China needs to stomach such a serious event in order to maintain a better cross-strait relations is to overstate the importance of such relations balanced against the threat to China's sovereignty and national dignity. All China's efforts to maintain such a relation at the price of principles and compromises in the years past have shown to be counter-productive. I think China has modified its cross-strait dealings since Tsai Ing-wen took office.

solarz said:

I would further remind you that international coverage of Li's words were first brought forth by Western and Taiwanese media. I do not think I need to spell out their motives and agendas. Suffice it to say, if China had actually wanted Li's words to be a message to Taiwan, we would have read it from Xinhua first.

Click to expand...

Once Li has issued such statement, in a public gathering, it's inevitable that news media will pick up it and it will be reported widely since China does not very often make such specific threat. Of course, the fact that Li is a relatively low-ranking official makes it less explosive, as opposed, say, the similar statement being made by Xinhua. Nonetheless, Li delivered the message in official capacity.

Click to expand...

Air Force Brat · Dec 13, 2017

Bltizo said:
Okay, that is news to me that no mod anywhere has been able to ban members.

Why was that function even removed to begin with, and has it been/will it be reinstated?

People have been pushing me to put my name up for mod, and I've talked with webmaster about it but I said I will only take it on with the ability to ban people because otherwise it is indeed an empty position.

As for having a noticeable anti-US and anti-west slant -- unfortunately, that comes with every forum, which has their biases.
The more egregious offences need to be removed and warned, but there are too many good members who provide good PLA watching and commentary who may have opinions that can be called anti-US and anti-west (though they would argue it is rather pro-China).
If we want SDF to actually do its job for proper PLA watching in the way that it's been known for, some degree of anti-US and anti-west sentiment unfortunately comes with the territory.

Thank you Blitzo for being honest with the rest of us, that you feel an anti US/Western sentiment is OK! It is for this reason that you should decline the invitation to be a moderator, if ever actually offered by Webby?? Sino Defense Forum has been the preeminent Defense Forum in many circles because of the outstanding character and quality of all of our MOD's who have done an exemplary and thankless job, as these negative, accusatory posts well illustrate!

BD Popeye's absence would have killed this forum, had not Jeff Head stepped up, at great personal expense and time, and committed to keeping SDF fair and balanced, Deino and Siege, and the rest or our mods have given this their best as well, in spite of Moderators losing priveledges due to forum format changes..

Thankfully Webby has been able and willing to restore Moderator's priveledges, and the Forum is already shaping up to be a better place, as you noted, Jeff has stood up valiantly in spite of terminal cancer to lead, and do so honestly and fairly to all,, I for one stand 110% behind our moderators and behind the Webmaster as well?? I couldn't have blamed him at any point for pulling the plug on SDF in light of recent "nastiness" by certain members...those who feel no compunction about disrespecting and undermining our current outstanding leadership, as well as other posters with whom they happen to disagree??

Air Force Brat · Dec 13, 2017

Jeff Head said:
Ever since the forum changed its look...some time ago.

Webby restored...re-programmed the functionality last week or so.

I was able to individually handle the most egregious things as I indicated above...but when moderators do not have the power to moderate...things (on either side) tend to get worse and worse.

I believe we have excellent tools now to get back to where we ought to be an uphold the rules of the forum. When we are able to do that...things run much more smoothly.

Amen to that, and thank you Jeff, Siege, Deino, other mods and Webby, thank you all for hanging in here with us, and the forum is already regaining some equilibrium. thank you gentlemen

solarz · Dec 13, 2017

weig2000 said:
It takes two to tango. If the US military ship wants to visit Taiwanese port, Taiwan can be incentivized/encouraged to deny the request, even for technical reasons. That way, it spares everyone a lot of troubles. To say that China needs to stomach such a serious event in order to maintain a better cross-strait relations is to overstate the importance of such relations balanced against the threat to China's sovereignty and national dignity. All China's efforts to maintain such a relation at the price of principles and compromises in the years past have shown to be counter-productive. I think China has modified its cross-strait dealings since Tsai Ing-wen took office.

...

Once Li has issued such statement, in a public gathering, it's inevitable that news media will pick up it and it will be reported widely since China does not very often make such specific threat. Of course, the fact that Li is a relatively low-ranking official makes it less explosive, as opposed, say, the similar statement being made by Xinhua. Nonetheless, Li delivered the message in official capacity.

Not resorting to war does not mean needing to stomach provocations. China has plenty of tools to make its displeasure known, and one of them is to send diplomats to state this displeasure clearly, as Li Kexin has done.

However, Li would not be the first diplomat or politician to share in a public gathering things that should not have been shared. When compared to the hypothesis that China would actually launch a military strike in the event of a USN ship visiting a Taiwanese port, I find it far more likely that Li simply made an error of judgement when he reported a private conversation.

For example, George W Bush is said to have told Pakistan's Musharraf, in a private conversation shortly after 9/11, that the US would bomb Pakistan back to the stone age if the latter didn't cooperate with the invasion of Afghanistan. That certainly wasn't meant to be public knowledge, and certainly wasn't US policy, but did underline the seriousness of the American position.

Jura The idiot · Dec 13, 2017

is this thread some kind of a East-West-fighting ring??
now I noticed my posts here from some time after Sunday at 10:47 PM

Bltizo said:
I believe it is legit. Or at the very least we have on video a fellow that looks like Li Kexin, did say those words, however he is not the Chinese ambassador to the US but rather just a minister at the embassy

Whether his words were made as part of Chinese govt/FM policy and backing is another matter.

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and before Monday at 8:13 AM

Jura said:
LOL

got deleted, while they contained just an automatic translation of what Mr., let me see, Kexin said, and a question what was humorous in his talk (here's the picture I posted back then:

)

OK, it shows how contentious the topic of Taiwan is
imagine if now the USN announced its warships would sail there

China-US-Taiwan Economic (Temp closed-pls read my last post)

Jeff Head

General

Equation

Lieutenant General

solarz

Brigadier

weig2000

Captain

solarz

Brigadier

weig2000

Captain

Air Force Brat

Brigadier

Air Force Brat

Brigadier

solarz

Brigadier

Jura The idiot

General