China tests midcourse interceptor

icbeodragon

Junior Member
China already has nuclear parity with the US/Russia, but if she admits it, she would be voluntry herself into the nuclear dis-armament talks, which goes against pretty much everything Sun Tzu said in his epic book. Best keep strategic weapons quantity ambiguous, PRIMARILY because you don't want to get sucked into disarmament talks.

You have no evidence for this whatsoever, and lack of evidence is not proof of existence.

The info accepted by experts is China has a small (relative to the US and Russia) but capable nuclear deterrent.

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No chance in hell would China sit on its ass and see a Russian or American neclear strike coming in and not launch something to drag the striker to hell together! Now would that be significant enough for your taste?

India? You think too high of that chaotic semi-feudal republic to see it from China's point of view...

But that's just my and many Chinese military fans' opinion. According to some Chinese analysts: The "Not against any country" statement from the MOD of PRC just means "it''s for all countries" that have been flexing their long range missile muscles around China these days (North Korea, India, South Korea, etc.)

You have attacked a straw-man, not what I said, which you actually affirm instead. I never mentioned China's nuclear deterrent, so temper your indignation.
 
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J-XX

Banned Idiot
You have no evidence for this whatsoever, and lack of evidence is not proof of existence.

The info accepted by experts is China has a small (relative to the US and Russia) but capable nuclear deterrent.

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You have attacked a straw-man, not what I said, which you actually affirm instead. I never mentioned China's nuclear deterrent, so temper your indignation.

Lol FAS?
These western 'experts' have underestimated China for a very long time.
None of these western sources or their 'experts' are credible regarding Chinese military affairs.
Their 'knowledge' is based on 'we are superior and Chinese will always be behind us' mentality.
 

icbeodragon

Junior Member
Lol FAS?
These western 'experts' have underestimated China for a very long time. None of these western sources or their 'experts' are credible regarding Chinese military affairs.
A general dismissal of western experts on Chinese military affairs really means nothing to me. It could also be argued that no one outside the Kremlin could be considered 'credible' regarding Soviet military affairs and the same for the US military, but you work with what you have and make educated guesses with the information you have available for what you don't have, that goes for all countries.

Their 'knowledge' is based on 'we are superior and Chinese will always be behind us' mentality.
Groundless and rather detrimental to what the Jobs of dedicated China watchers actually are. I will not rule out the likelihood that there are those stuck in that mentality, but to dismiss it as a general mentality is rather... unwise.

I might as well get to the point, as it was what I was countering...do you believe China has a nuclear deterrent the size of which is in the same league as the US and Russia, and if so what do you base that belief on?

I've given a rather good source from a respected organization, and yes the organization has been referenced as a credible organization in at least English language Chinese media. If you still doubt its expertise perhaps you would like to take it up with those who run Xinhua and the GlobalTimes?

Anyways its ultimate source for its own estimates is from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which is given, along with supporting sources.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
A general dismissal of western experts on Chinese military affairs really means nothing to me. It could also be argued that no one outside the Kremlin could be considered 'credible' regarding Soviet military affairs and the same for the US military, but you work with what you have and make educated guesses with the information you have available for what you don't have, that goes for all countries.


Groundless and rather detrimental to what the Jobs of dedicated China watchers actually are. I will not rule out the likelihood that there are those stuck in that mentality, but to dismiss it as a general mentality is rather... unwise.

I might as well get to the point, as it was what I was countering...do you believe China has a nuclear deterrent the size of which is in the same league as the US and Russia, and if so what do you base that belief on?

I've given a rather good source from a respected organization, and yes the organization has been referenced as a credible organization in at least English language Chinese media. If you still doubt its expertise perhaps you would like to take it up with those who run Xinhua and the GlobalTimes?

Anyways its ultimate source for its own estimates is from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which is given, along with supporting sources.

Icebedagon don't get so cocky as if you know all the answer in the world . Every estimate done by western analyst is based on study done by a Chinese nuclear scientist who did work on nuclear plutonium plant on the north east of China way back in 60's. He went to MIT on post doctoral program and cooperate with Jeffrey lewis. But those plant is old and mothballed long time ago. Hey you can even visit it now as a tourist. In the late 60's during the height of Sino Russian border war, fearing a surgical attack on the nuclear facilities in north east most of Chinese plutonium and other nuclear research moved to south west Sichuan province.

And FAS has vested interest their goal is nuclear disarmament and they have mind like counterpart in China too and cooperate with FAS So those estimate should be taken with gob of salt.

Nobody know the extent of Chinese nuclear stockpile and the Chinese is not telling anybody

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icbeodragon

Junior Member
Icebedagon don't get so cocky as if you know all the answer in the world .
I'm sorry if I sound cocky to you, that was never my intention :eek:. I'd also be the last person to claim I know everything in the world, but I do feel very confident that China does not have ~3000 nuclear warheads ready and waiting, which is what would probably be considered on par with the US and Russia in terms of nuclear deterrent. Its not like China lacks the capability, it is a deliberate choice.


Every estimate done by western analyst is based on study done by a Chinese nuclear scientist who did work on nuclear plutonium plant on the north east of China way back in 60's. He went to MIT on post doctoral program and cooperate with Jeffrey lewis. But those plant is old and mothballed long time ago. Hey you can even visit it now as a tourist. In the late 60's during the height of Sino Russian border war, fearing a surgical attack on the nuclear facilities in north east most of Chinese plutonium and other nuclear research moved to south west Sichuan province.

Can I presume that the scientist you are speaking of is Xue Litai, who you have given a link to? If that is so then your claim is demonstrably false.

Here is an expert who does not base his estimates off of Xue Litai's work...
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(original source)

Here is at least one other document that does not do so...
"http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/19990527/01-01.htm" This is from 1984 mind you, but it still challenges your assertion.




And FAS has vested interest their goal is nuclear disarmament and they have mind like counterpart in China too and cooperate with FAS So those estimate should be taken with gob of salt.

Nobody know the extent of Chinese nuclear stockpile and the Chinese is not telling anybody

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I don't see the connection between the FAS interest in nuclear disarmament and underestimating China's arsenal, or anyone's arsenal for that matter. Why does this lead to their estimates being taken with a gob of salt?

Actually it should also be noted that China's own foreign ministry has stated that its nuclear arsenal is the smallest of the 5 nuclear powers, and characterizes its arsenal as "limited nuclear force"
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Of course this is most definitely not a smoking gun, it could just as well be a lie, but its not just the Chinese foreign ministry stating this, and the US at least is not taking the Chinese foreign ministry's words on it with their own estimates, but has used other methods (such as mentioned in my above 1984 link).

No one knows that exact estimates as you and my original and current source state, but a general idea can be achieved based on other factors. :D
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I know Hans Kristensen and he is part of the gang in FAS This is the same person who for years underestimate Chinese submarine based on false ONI graph tha can predict the noise level of Type 95 or any other Chinese submarine before they even build it

You can believe anything but here is the quote from international panel of fissile material that is quoted by Hans Kristensen

China’s stockpiles are much smaller than those of Russia and the United States and, at
present, China does not feel secure enough to make public exactly how much less.9 As
with Russia, however, there are new sources of official and unofficial information that
allow for more accurate independent estimates of the histories of China’s plutonium

and HEU production and of its current stocks. Chapter 7, for instance, uses newly released
official information about the early years of China’s nuclear program and media
reports and memoirs to show that China’s plutonium stockpile may be significantly
smaller than many previous estimates.

So in other word they don't know a thing about the production rate of Chinese fissile material but they are confidence to predict the rate based on "unofficial information" which is again that study done by Jeffrey Lewis way back in 70's

Use your logic ,China advance in blinding speed in every other fields you name it but the "expert" want us to believe that somehow the nuclear stockpile stuck at 300 .

The folks at FAS has interest to talk down the number of warhead because if they know that China say has 2000 warhead nobody want to reduce their own stockpile !. In other word no nuclear disarmament . Gee some people cannot connect all the dots.

No the scientist is not Lin Yutai I include it to say that there are like minded people in China who is for nuclear disarmament. enough said
 
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balance

Junior Member
Interesting and thoughtful analysis. I would like to hear your agreement or disagreement reason with the analysis below.

What China’s Missile Intercept Test Means
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Equation

Lieutenant General
Interesting and thoughtful analysis. I would like to hear your agreement or disagreement reason with the analysis below.

What China’s Missile Intercept Test Means
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I disagreed with the authors promotion of a point missile defense system vs. a national missile defense system.

"A point defense system is designed to defend a few small areas against ballistic missile attacks. This is a much more reasonable choice than a national missile defense system for China if it decides to develop its hit-to-kill technology into a missile defense system. A point defense system could be used to protect the Chinese command and control center and to make sure that Chinese political and military leaders would survive a surprise preemptive nuclear strike so that they could direct a retaliatory nuclear strike. The system could also be used to protect some of China’s strategic nuclear weapons and increase their survivability."

So what happened than to the rest of China? Are they to be exposed and sacrificed to enemy nuclear ballistic missiles? That don't make sense to me.
 

ahadicow

Junior Member
You won't direct your nukes to population centers unless you're a demented mass murderer. In a nuclear war sceniario, you want to concentrate your stirke force toward your enemies' retaliatory force so once your foe is "nuclear disarmed", so to speak, they would simply surrender. So, retaliatory nuclear force do have higher priority than population to be protected against suprise nuclear attack. There is nothing wrong with this strategy.

As to demented mass murderers, I can only say a missle defense system are not good way to fend against them.
 

icbeodragon

Junior Member
I know Hans Kristensen and he is part of the gang in FAS This is the same person who for years underestimate Chinese submarine based on false ONI graph tha can predict the noise level of Type 95 or any other Chinese submarine before they even build it

You can believe anything but here is the quote from international panel of fissile material that is quoted by Hans Kristensen

China’s stockpiles are much smaller than those of Russia and the United States and, at
present, China does not feel secure enough to make public exactly how much less.9 As
with Russia, however, there are new sources of official and unofficial information that
allow for more accurate independent estimates of the histories of China’s plutonium

and HEU production and of its current stocks. Chapter 7, for instance, uses newly released
official information about the early years of China’s nuclear program and media
reports and memoirs to show that China’s plutonium stockpile may be significantly
smaller than many previous estimates.

What you quote would seem to affirm what I, China's own foreign ministry, and estimates the world over have said, that China's nuclear arsenal, whatever its actual size, is not in the same league as the big 2...
So in other word they don't know a thing about the production rate of Chinese fissile material but they are confidence to predict the rate based on "unofficial information" which is again that study done by Jeffrey Lewis way back in 70's

Like they have said, No one knows the exact number of warheads China has outside of top party officials themselves, but there are methods to get into the same ballpark, and 3000 warheads is not even in the same ballpark.


Use your logic ,China advance in blinding speed in every other fields you name it but the "expert" want us to believe that somehow the nuclear stockpile stuck at 300 .

Since when is progress in other fields linked to increases in nuclear stockpile size?

Again this isn't a matter of capability, its a matter of choice. Maintaining 3000 nukes is expensive, and China doesn't need to for it to be an effective deterrent. The nuclear arsenal size of 10's of thousands of nukes by the US and the USSR was not really guided by strategic needs, but by fear and pride (which is pretty much the rationale I see in the arguments i've seen that China needs a 3000 nuclear warhead arsenal... because the US and Russia have more, and we should have as much as the big 2.). If the US and Russia still had tens of thousands of nukes today (lets just say everything else is equal to simplify), would people instead be clamoring for China to have/claim China is building 10's of thousands of nukes instead of 3000, both sizes being in contrast to all public data inside and outside of China? (not credible being studies like that Georgetown study).



The folks at FAS has interest to talk down the number of warhead because if they know that China say has 2000 warhead nobody want to reduce their own stockpile !. In other word no nuclear disarmament . Gee some people cannot connect all the dots.

But this logic hold true regardless if China's nuclear arsenal is 3000 or 300. The US has 3000~ Nukes, Russia has more (off the top of my head). The FAS is focused on more than Chinese nukes.

Well, in my opinion total nuclear disarmament is not possible because of the trust issues you imply in the first place, so that would be another reason why I think you place too much importance on China's nuclear arsenal. The size of China's nuclear arsenal is not the lynchpin of nuclear disarmament. Nuclear disarmament is dead, and even if it was alive, it would be just as put upon by the size of the US and Russian nuclear arsenals.


No the scientist is not Lin Yutai I include it to say that there are like minded people in China who is for nuclear disarmament. enough said
Oh I have no doubts there are people in favor of nuclear disarmament all over the world, just like there are people in favor of true communism :D
 
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