China tests ASAT

adeptitus said:

Unlike most of you, I'm VERY HAPPY at this development and hope this pushes the other nations toward militarization of space and beyond.

Like it or not, military is often at the front of technology R&D that'd eventually trickle down to non-military uses. If there was no military threat from space, governments are not going to spend a lot of $$ on space related technologies, and toss toss agencies like NASA a bone or two. But heaven forbid, if the "enemy" it out there, then by Gawd we gotta rush to build and close that gap. Here comes the billions in funding!

Hopefully this will lead to increased spending on space research, which initially will be military, and eventually the same technologies will benefit civilian colonization of outer space. I'd like to see manned stations on the moon at least before I die.

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I don't know if "very happy" are the words I'd use, but you are right that the civilian and scientific space exploration programmes only became possible because of the Cold War. The US and the USSR were engaged in a propaganda war and the space programmes were a way of impressing potential allies. While in the 60's the World's attention was on the Apollo programme, the USAF was building up an extensive space programme of it's own, the recon satellite we all know about, but they had a programme for their own manned space station, The Manned Orbital Laboratory.

This may also give a boost to NASA's Constellation programme for returning to the Moon by 2020.



I have always thought that if China showed evidence of a manned lunar programme, that timeframe would shrink dramatically. I think we'd all settle for China and the U.S. locked in a contest to establish the first permament lunar base, that would be of much greater benefit to the World than both countries firing missiles across the Pacific.

adeptitus said:

Unlike most of you, I'm VERY HAPPY at this development and hope this pushes the other nations toward militarization of space and beyond.

Like it or not, military is often at the front of technology R&D that'd eventually trickle down to non-military uses. If there was no military threat from space, governments are not going to spend a lot of $$ on space related technologies, and toss toss agencies like NASA a bone or two. But heaven forbid, if the "enemy" it out there, then by Gawd we gotta rush to build and close that gap. Here comes the billions in funding!

Hopefully this will lead to increased spending on space research, which initially will be military, and eventually the same technologies will benefit civilian colonization of outer space. I'd like to see manned stations on the moon at least before I die.

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Obviously, this test is a milestone in what may become the "2nd Space Race", a multipolar space race.

I was thinking about this earlier; the militarization of space may be the only way that humanity will ever make the serious technological progress it needs to make in order to get over the "Earth-Orbit Hump". At least for a while it seems that space based weapons will only be defensive in nature. I can forsee armed satillites designed to intercept ground based ASAT weapons and ICBMs, followed by satillites to kill satillites, followed by manned spacecraft. The future is so clear. The WWIII potential in all of this is that a nation with heavy space based capability and ABM weapons based in space would be tempted to use its nukes on another nuclear nation because this technology would invalidate MAD. And that is a bad thing. And of course it is probable that at some point if this possible future pans out that someone will base offensive weapons in space designed to target the surface of the Earth.

Hehe...sounds exciting. Im preparing my jedi training right now.

I would like to disagree with some points of view posted in this thread before.
I don´t think that China alleged ASAT test is a provocative action because we will have to think that any test of weapons, from any country, will be provocative and that is not the case.
USA has recently, some years ago, tested an ASAT Laser weapon.
USA has proclaimed its "right" to deny other countrys access to space if that would protect USA use of its own military systens in space.
USA National Missile Defense is much more of a threat, if we talk of any threats for the world security, than any possible ASAT test maded by any country.

A possible China ASAT weapon can remotely possible deny other countrys use of their satellites, if these countrys ever go to war (in such a case the other side, maybe USA, would also deny China the use of its own satellites - USA said that it will attack the Galileu GPS satellite system of Europe if there occurs a conflict with China).
In the other hand the USA Nuclear Missile Defence System will deny China its ability to defend itself from a possible USA nuclear attack or the possible USA conventional military attack on China in a Taiwan conflict.

USA NMD system is a vital threat to China, limited deterrent, self-defence that makes possible for USA to attack China at will if China ever dare to fight Taiwan independence or to deffend its interests against Japan actions.
And we don´t see China complaining about USA actions in Nuclear Missile Deffence, or USA and Japan military navy manouvers in the China Sea.

It is ever more distant the two contrys "threatening" capabilities that we can
evaluate the USA NMD numerous ICBM interceptions by kinetic Kill vehicles as space militarization and, if USA can intercept one or a lot of ICBM and their decoys with a kinetic kill vehicle so what is the difficult for USA to adapt these interceptors to attack satellites of other countries.

So USA could intercept satellites with Lasers and, possible, with their own Kinetic Kill vehicles that are used to intercept ICBMs.
And USA do these tests some times per year against one only test of China.

It is not like China is getting a capabilitie that USA don´t have it is only that China could, possible get a capabilitie that USA already have in far greater scale.
The thing is that, in the new world order, China wasn´t supposed to have defensive capabilities in that level, so that the complains will continue to coming until the "status quo" find a new balance of power.

(i watch this Forum for a long time and its is my very pleasure to participate on it)
Cheers to all people from SD Forum.

Re: Chinese Successful Anti-Satelite Test

crobato said:

Yes, but the US did voluntarily suspend their own program in respect of international treaty not to militarize space.

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I believe that argument isn't fair.
First, sure the US did voluntarily suspended the program, but they have developed and tested their capability. It has the technology already. China is only testing it now. It is a bit hypocritical isn't it? To do it then tell everyone not to do it after you achieve your goal? It also doesn't say US would not revive the production of it. In fact, I believe US would revive the production in a heartbeat if they sees the need of it. So, this voluntary suspension is really pointless. Also, this is not to say US actually suspended it; US simply move onto another superior platform that does the same thing. eg. Ground Based Laser Weapon System. So it is extremely hypocritical to call someone out when you are still doing it. Pot calling kettle black. Heh. Maybe China should develop the same Laser weapon as US, then what are you going to say?


Second, I believe I have read that Bush had torn up all outter space treaties back in 2002? After which he go into a row with Russians. Then in 2004-5 he draws up his plan for Global Strike program, which basically throw the whole argument of "peaceful use of outter space" outta the window.

And how can you say it is "weaponising" the space? It is ground launched. It is NOT space launched. Let me breake it down to you so it is easier for you to understand...It is BASED ON THE GROUND.

Re: Chinese Successful Anti-Satelite Test

crobato said:

Frankly I dont know what China is trying to pull. Its like one provocative message after another. You got the J-10 and J-11B being shown, and previously, just two months ago, we got PGMs being shown and a sub surfacing near a US carrier.

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So, in your view, China should only be limit to use WWII era warplanes, and equipments? That's got to be the most idiotic argument I have come across, (and I come across a lot like those from american)


Why not just say China should just give up arms, and surrender right this moment? LOL.


Let me put it this way to you.
"Frankly I dont know what America is trying to pull. Its like one provocative message after another. You got the F-22 and J-35 being shown, and previously, just five years ago, US spyplane illegally invade and collide with chinese jet in chinese water."

Your argument is simply - incredibly naive, and arrogant.
Another classic case of "Do what I say but don't do what I do" mindset.
Why not try it with Russians? Tell them to stop making those Topol-M (SS-27) ICBM that currently, no US missile shields can defend against?

amorphous said:

has this news been confirmed. It may well be some speculation when the US lost track of one of the Chinese satellites - they lost track of one of their own after all.

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I heard the US is unable to contact a new and expensive military satellite just launched last year.

utelore said:

I am getting that the DoD is very concerned about this test. If they can hit satellites then what else can they hit. IE ships at sea or land targets with a CEP of 10M. That is what concerns people on top of knocking out our GPS which would be devastating. Many thought the PRC was 3-8 years away from doing this and a counter system could be deployed by then...that has now changed....cheers ute.

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It means they are capable of developing first class INS systems, and the implications are more than just ballistic missiles alone but in every category of bomb and missile. ASAT capability was something even the Russians could not get right.

The US own test achieved a kill at 555km above the earth. This one did 865km.

alopes said:

So USA could intercept sattelites with Lasers and, possible with their own Kinnect Kill vehicles that are used to intercept ICBMs.
And USA do these tests some times per year against one only test of China.

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Its been reported that China had also momentarily blinded US satellites by lasers. Not destroy but disable them for a time period.

This news is also long time coming. It has been expected long time ago. I have read a defense article few years ago (atleast 5-6 years ago) that a US defense analyst have already warn about this. His rationale was that, US should STOP developing ground base laser ASAT weapon because it will give clue to other nations of the vulnerability of space assets. The US is much more reliant on space, then the rest of the world. So it has little advantage for US to pursue ASAT weapon, while it gives every advantages for others to pursue such weapon.

So he put it simply :

"Don't start throwing rocks when you are standing inside a glass house".


[EDIT]
Found it. The article I have read:
Note the date, he warned about it SEVEN YEARS AGO. I guess the adminstration didn't take his advice.




"Critics called the experiment a mistake by giving other nations the impression that the United States is moving toward offensive use of lasers in space - a step the Pentagon is not ready to make.

Among them is John Pike, a representative of the military weapons watchdog group Federation of American Scientists. He said such high-tech military testing will encourage other nations to develop anti-satellite weapons.

"We live in a glass house," Pike said. "We should not be organizing rock-throwing contests."



I must say I like his colorful analogy.
So, is China to blame for developing ASAT weapon, when US itself has continuously developing it and only encourages others to do the same?

FuManChu said:

No, but they have brought things to a head by making this test. It is one thing to produce a capability, but it is another to show it to the world - that's what the defence analyst the BBC interviewed said. People can tolerate others making things, but as soon as you start using them (even testing them) it can create all sorts of problems. If the US had done this, there would have been plenty of criticism from China and other countries.

I can only hope this will create some sort of movement towards a treaty, but it could so easily backfire in China's face even if that was the motivation.

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Are you kidding? What kind of logic is running in your brain?
It is so contradictory, I don't know where to even start.. let's see...
"To produce capability without testing"... LOL. Capability means to have already been tested, or else, it is just pipe dream. Do you think the US can invent the nuclear bomb if it wasn't made and tested it (and test they did! on real civilians). Do you seriously think those blue prints and theories will just LEAP OUT of the page and prove themself to work? LOL

Secondly, INCASE YOU STILL DIDN'T UNDERSTAND :
US has the ASAT weapon (missile based) since 1980. They have tested it numerous times, and only abandoning it after they found a better solution - Laser based ASAT weapon, which they are still under continual development and testing.

Remember, when you are the pot, (haha, maybe a smoking pot) don't come calling the kettle black. Another "Do what I say, but don't do what I do" american.

FuManChu said:

That's complete nonsense - you don't show a capability by not holding a public test. Unless you have proof the Americans have blown up a satellite recently your point is irrelevant.

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"Air-launched missiles were the first approach because the basic technology was well known. The US began tests of such a system in 1959 but initial results were very discouraging, the first test launch missed by over 6,000 m, and after further failures the project was halted in 1963. Simultaneous U.S. Navy projects were also abandoned although smaller projects did drag on until the early 1970s. The USSR began a similar program in 1967 and actually built and deployed ASAT missiles from around 1976. Stung by the Soviet deployment, the USAF revived its own ASAT program. From 1977 Vought developed an ASAT to attack satellites in Low Earth orbit (LEO), the three stage missile was fired by an F-15 Eagle in a steep climb and carried a miniature homing vehicle (MHV) to track and then destroy the target kinetically. The first test was in 1983 and the first successful interception, of the defunct US satellite P78 SolWind, was on September 13, 1985."



Recently or not, it is irrelevent. US DID BLOW UP A SATELLITE OF ITS OWN. It already set an example, a precedent.

I have come to two conclution in this "incident".

1. We can clearly see a chinese weapon developing pattern in this. It will be very hard for china to catch up US in most field as Jets, Navy.... but china start to develp weapon towards field that US have not invest tomuch into... Like laser weapon and what we have here...


2. only way Human can all unite is when Alien invade earth, period. end of that disscusion. :nono: