China needs to be a responsible power, that's to prevent western led regime change under SCO

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by tidalwave, Feb 4, 2019.

  1. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    Responsible power doesn't mean sending some UN troops here and there for easy tasks but to preserve world peace through active means of stopping led western led regime changes worldwide under SCO framework.

    Right now China is Not a responsible military power, it doesn't strive to keep peace worldwide.It doesn't get involved in Syria and Venezuela directly.

    If China already became a responsible military power, it would dispatch a carrier strike group and amphibious ship carrying marines along with Russian and Iranian, central asia troops to Venezuela to preserve peace there.

    Right now, Venezuela under tremendous pressure piled on by western countries.

    Syria is war torn after 7 years of fighting. Same with Iraq.

    If China becomes a responsible power and active engage in those trouble areas under SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization, peae can quickly restore there.

    Hopefully, China can one day become a responsible military power
     
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  2. gelgoog
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    gelgoog Senior Member
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    It is too early. The Chinese Navy in under a massive expansion. The Type 055 cruisers and the carriers need to enter service first. Also the Chinese Marines are under a massive reorg. I can see something like it happen in a year but not right now.

    What China can do is support Venezuela with a hospital ship and food and medicine supplies as a goodwill gesture. Also to find ways for Venezuela to export their oil in exchange for goods and debt repayment even if it is through bartering. At the same time China should find resupply routes and ways to supply the government with small weapons, food, medicine to defend itself against foreign aggression in the long term.

    I noticed in the TV reports that the Venezuelan police units were using Chinese manufactured jeeps. I would not be surprised if they also were supplied with anti-riot gear.

    China built low-income houses and is in several oil projects at Venezuela. AFAIK a total Chinese investment of $40 billion USD of which $20 billion USD has been repaid already.
    I doubt the Chinese government will allow the USA to topple the legitimate government with someone who would renege on that debt.

    I think a Sudan like scenario is more viable right now in case the insurgency or invasion does happen. Venezuela has some mountains and jungle terrain which would make an armed guerrilla quite possible even if the government gets toppled somehow. Only problem is ressuply routes given that both Brazil and Colombia are in the pocket of the USA.

    I think Chinese intervention in Syria will be limited to military observers and civilian aid in reconstruction.
    Anything other than that might annoy the Persian Gulf petrostates allied with the Saudis.
     
    #2 gelgoog, Feb 4, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2019
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  3. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    Russian already sent 400 military personnel's to Venezuela to protect maduro safety against assassination.
    US is contemplating sending 5000 troops to Columbia and get involved with Venezuela.

    China right now can send a fleet of 054A, 052D, and supply ship to Venezuela and help maduro to ship out those gold.
     
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  4. gelgoog
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    gelgoog Senior Member
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    I think it would be quicker to expedite the gold reserves by airplane.
     
  5. Viktor Jav
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    Viktor Jav Junior Member
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    Choosing a side in the Venezuelan crisis would mean the total invalidation of China's previous policy of non-intervention on other states. Not to mention this will most likely be the first step of a slippery slop down a similar path of foreign entanglement and imperialism not unlike that of the US.
    While US back regime changes are deplorable and almost completely insulated from the public masses of the particular country that is "supposedly" for their benefits. It is not like backing up Maduro at this point is going to make anything better. Suffice to say Maduro's Chavez policies aren't rooted in the standard 101 of How 2 Economy and by and large his support is not complete especially if the legislative body of Venezuela can act in opposition to him.
    It is all about the public image if one is too be seen as a "responsible" power, and at this point the Venezuelan Crisis has been charged to the point of damned if you do, damned if you don't. China's economic investment in the Maduro's government policy and Guaido's unbashed wooing of Beijing's support means that no matter which side China intervenes for, it is clear that the public both domestic and international will see it as being mostly in China's own interests.

    And there is the issue of legitimacy to be considered, unlike the Russian intervention in Syria which was on behest of the current acknowledged government. Venezuela's government is currently in confusion and anarchy. So neither side can legitimize any action China could possibly make. That makes it a prime excuse for any other country to seize upon.

    And finally there is the whole military capacity to begin with, Venezuela is far in what is considered to be the US' backyard, so China cannot expect to have as much leverage as Russia could have done in Syria with a similar number of troops. Morevere, Russia's Syria intervention was done with speed and guile, 2 things which are impossible for China to mount in Venezuela due to the sheer distance and lack of infrastructure or forward deployed forces. Any potential Chinese intervention force would be met by an opposing US flotilla on the excuse of "self-determination for the Venezuelan people" which would be ironic considering how China use to harp that tone alot in the past.

    So the best thing that China could do would be to support calls for a re election that is supervised by a independent body, all the while making assurances that the losing side would not be subjected to revenge politics.
    Venezuela would be the perfect stage for China to demonstrate that it's policy of non-intervention and equality actually holds water. If Guaido comes to power via free and fair elections then China should acknowledge the results like how it did with Malaysia.
     
    #5 Viktor Jav, Feb 4, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2019
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  6. gelgoog
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    gelgoog Senior Member
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    And Syria was not in confusion and anarchy? Seriously.

    I agree that direct military intervention is not a good idea for China. The logistics issues are simply too hard to solve and it is like the worst possible place to fight the US Navy. Near the Panama Canal. Which means both the US Atlantic and Pacific Fleets would be in range. As would US European allies. It is a total loss scenario.

    Also, do not expect Guaido to keep his promises to China. Just like the Ukrainian opposition couldn't be trusted when they made a deal with Yanukovych under the EU's auspices.

    However a Chinese aid&relief mission would be something no one else could make a definitive objection towards and would definitively expose the US's hand. Just send an hospital ship with a logistics vessel with food. If you need escorts, you do not send Chinese Navy vessels, you send Chinese Coast guard cutters derivative of the Type 054 frigate as escorts.
     
    #6 gelgoog, Feb 4, 2019
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  7. Biscuits
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    Biscuits Junior Member
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    There is no point to choosing a side in Venezuela.

    Both Maduro and Guaido wants to extend hands to China, and both need to repay debts. Taking sides now would just make relations sour if the other side was victorious.

    China could be a more responsible world power, but that would mean being able to project against the USN. While the PLAN can compete and even win technologically, there is no contest when it comes to numbers. And numbers tend to matter even more when it comes to projecting power.

    The current situation would require a large budget and recruitment increase. Right now, the faction in control of the CPC is simply far too pro peace to consider it.

    Despite whatever fancy platforms they field, you should not forget that PLA spends even less than the minimum for NATO nations. Without the political will to be anything outside of a self defense force, the PLA will be relegated to defending China and it's sworn allies' territory only.
     
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  8. Viktor Jav
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    Viktor Jav Junior Member
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    "And Syria was not in confusion and anarchy? Seriously."
    Syria and Venezuela are 2 different kettle of fish politically, Syria is a situation where a new and completely different group is challenging the existing group for political control without resorting to already established political avenues.. In Venezuela it is 2 different legitimate groups (The Assembly and the Presidency) that are challenging the legitimacy of each other, both by relying on different facets of the judiciary for their justification.
    And if China resorts to humanitarian aid alone that is distributed fairly and evenly, it will not expose any supposed US hand. And how would it ? There would be nothing that can possibly invite a US response that is counterproductive. That would be falling clearly in line with China's earlier policy of non-intervention.
     
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  9. gelgoog
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    gelgoog Senior Member
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    The point is that the USA is battering down the hatches in another repeat of the Cold War. If China allows the USA to do whatever it wants it will mean a lot of governments will not consider China to be strong enough to uphold their interests and hence the USA will use that as gunboat diplomacy to isolate countries like China much like it did with the Soviet Union after WW2. The Russians perceived this problem which is why they intervened in Syria.

    I will provide you with a small timeline.
    - Mashall Plan begins.
    - COMECON created.
    - NATO founded.
    - Warsaw Pact founded.

    China needs to be perceived as the rule obeying nation here so it can gain the higher moral ground. If the best decision is no intervention or only a humanitarian mission remains to be seen. But I think it would help counter the narrative that the US needs to enter Venezuelan waters to provide assistance, if other assistance is already there.

    The alternative is for China to provide their own counter to the Monroe doctrine. i.e. do not allow the US to have a foothold in Asia. The Japanese tried that with their Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere but it was doomed from the start because of their rationale of having the Japanese on top of everyone else.

    China&Russia should not allow the regime change operation to go unquestioned if it goes through however. They need to make Venezuela as much of a disaster operation to the USA as possible if they do gain the upper hand. If I was the Venezuelans I would do the exact same thing Saddam Hussein did and torch the oil wells if US troops invade.
     
    #9 gelgoog, Feb 4, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2019
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  10. Viktor Jav
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    Viktor Jav Junior Member
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    And I will complete your timeline with the following
    -The Warsaw Pact caused the USSR to overextend and overstretch.
    -The USSR collapsed due that overstretch, giving NATO and the US free reign
    -NATO/US free reign caused it in turn to overextend and overstretch.

    See the pattern here ? The idea that China has to ape and check every single thing that the US do is just as inane as the US trying to ape and check every single thing China does. Just because the US is trying to reshape this into a Cold War with China means that China and the rest of the world will play by the same rules.
    The problem Russia has is that military power is the only way that it can project influence, which plays directly into the US playbook. China on the other hand has no military obligations and any potential disputes with other nations can draw upon its economy for leverage.

    The issue with playing the "big brother" is that once you put on the mantle, it is every hard for one to take it off. One will be drawn into every single conflict, regardless of how insignificant or detached from national interests, and often having to invest significant effort into it. That is what Russia will be facing shortly in Syria, once the smoke clears on the Syrian rebels, Putin will be left juggling Turkish, Syrian, Iranian and Israelite interests in the region which are all in conflict with each other,

    And the main problem with your "poisoning the well" tactic is that it also poisons the well for one's own side as well. Conspiring with Maduro's side to sabotage Venezuelan infrastructure and economy just to get back at the US is a petty and spiteful tactic which is ultimately fruitless because in the end the US aren't going to colonize Venezuela, and the only real people to suffer are the Venezuelans themselves. It is pretty arrogant and presumptuous to think that all of Venezuela would rather torch their own homes and economy than allow for regime change. Especially if the said political crisis has solid support on either side by the populous

    And the issue with countering US intervention by offering assistance earlier is that the US will not need any humanitarian excuse for this crisis if they really want to, they have done the same in Libya and in Iraq. What makes you think that China can score any higher moral ground than the rest of the world that choose non-intervention on Venezuela.
     
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