China maturing fighters forces

siegecrossbow

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lolz:

[6] This estimate comes via “HKSDU” posting on the SinoDefense Forum web page on August 18, 2011, http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/air-force/how-many-fighters-does-china-have-6-4440.html Such estimates deserve serious consideration inasmuch as they are derived largely from close monitoring and parsing by numerous Chinese and Western enthusiasts of what has been an increasing volume of both official and unofficial imagery of PLA combat aircraft. Determining PLA aircraft units from their prominent “Bort” numbers has become a popular though at times inexact science. Such open source analysis was led early on by the Dutch web site “Scramble,” which today remains a useful resource on PLAAF and PLANAF orders of battle, see,
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franco-russe

Senior Member
The serial numbers of PLA aircraft is a very good means of establishing aircraft strength, but certainly not the only way. GE coverage provides us all the opportunity to be our own IMINT analysts. Not least counting shelters for new aircraft types provides very reliable information on modern PLA combat aircraft

HKSDU’s most recent estimate is quite accurate, but underestimates the number of older combat aircraft.

Some small corrections to the tables in the How Many Fighters does China have? Thread:

Judging from shelters, the J-10 table should be amended as follows:

FTTC 1 Regt 21 J-10
24 Div 1 Aug 16 J-10
4 PLANAF Div 12 Regt 24 J-10

which brings the total to 229.

And an update: In 28 Div, 83 Regt has got company from 84 Regt, which has switched from Q-5 to JH-7A in 2011. 24 shelters are constructed at Jiaxing, increasing the JH-7 total to 218.

After this change, I have 7 Q-5 regiments with each about 30 plus 27 at the Shenyang MR Training Base, total 240.

I now have 23 J-7 regiments, each at least 30 planes, plus about 25 at each of the MR training bases, plus 16 in FTTC 2 Regt plus 7 at 14 Base Dingxin, total about 900.

For J-8H/F, 10 should be added, to include 8 at FTTC 2 Regt and 2 at 14 Base Dingxin. Also the reconnaissance planes, at least 32 JZ-8F in 4 Recce Regt and 77 Regt, 26 Div, and 2 in 15 Regt, 5 PLANAF Div, may be included.
 
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tphuang

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do you actually have any proof of this one? Let's see the photos. It's hard for me to believe that Division 1 regiment would only have 24 J-10s when all the other PLAAF regiment has 28. Also, if we just look at FTTC regiment. We have numbering from 15 to 29 for J-10s. It seems like we would have at least 15 J-10s, but the exact number is not really sure.
FTTC 1 Regt 21 J-10
24 Div 1 Aug 16 J-10
 

franco-russe

Senior Member
As I indicated, look at GE.

Talking about regiments with 24 vs. 28 planes, I guess you mean 12 Regt, PLANAF 4 Div. It relocated to Feidong and inherited the 24 shelters of 10 Regt, which went to NIngbo.
 

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
if China makes a Regiment of J10 each year this means by 2015 they will additional (28 x 5) 140 J10s, total of 370 and if production continues to 2018 or 2020 the number can be as high as 450-500 aircraft, this is a serious inventory for J10

btw HKSDU’s list for aircraft inventory is much more accurate than this article, i think everyone did a great job doing that list, the CIA has had its work cut out for it lol ;)
 

franco-russe

Senior Member
You can sleep calmly, the US intelligence community has much more accurate information than this...

But your predictions are probably accurate. Remember, there are a lot of J-7's to replace! Even if you add J-11, which also replaces J-7.
 

tphuang

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As I indicated, look at GE.

Talking about regiments with 24 vs. 28 planes, I guess you mean 12 Regt, PLANAF 4 Div. It relocated to Feidong and inherited the 24 shelters of 10 Regt, which went to NIngbo.

okay, you are saying the 24th division. I thought you were saying there are 24 J-10s in division 1. That I can accept.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Anybody can enlighten me ..... I understand PLAAF regiment is equivalent to western squadron which has 12 to 16 planes. Why PLAAF regiment has almost double the numbers (28) ?
 

franco-russe

Senior Member
A Chinese aviation regiment (or a Russian, until they were all disbanded 01.01.10) is the equivalent of a Western wing (UK, US), Escadre (France) or Geschwader (Germany). They consist of 2-4 squqadrons.

There is no fixed strength for Western fighter squadrons. They range from 12 (UK) to 18, 21 or 24 planes (US). French squadrons had 15 aircraft until they became independent after the disbandment of the Escadres and now have 20 planes. I am not sure about German squadrons, but I think they have 15, too.

Effectively, a Chinese fighter regiment thus has the same strength as a large US squadron.

I do not know how many squadrons or how many planes per squadron PLAAF has. I would guess they have 10 (SU-27/J-11/SU-30MKK) og 12 (J-8/J-10), but the fact that e.g. 72 Avn Regt’s aircraft shelters are built in groups of 8 (plus 4 for twin-seaters) might indicate that a J-10 regiment is divided into 3 squadrons of 8 planes each.
 
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