The serial numbers of PLA aircraft is a very good means of establishing aircraft strength, but certainly not the only way. GE coverage provides us all the opportunity to be our own IMINT analysts. Not least counting shelters for new aircraft types provides very reliable information on modern PLA combat aircraft
HKSDU’s most recent estimate is quite accurate, but underestimates the number of older combat aircraft.
Some small corrections to the tables in the How Many Fighters does China have? Thread:
Judging from shelters, the J-10 table should be amended as follows:
FTTC 1 Regt 21 J-10
24 Div 1 Aug 16 J-10
4 PLANAF Div 12 Regt 24 J-10
which brings the total to 229.
And an update: In 28 Div, 83 Regt has got company from 84 Regt, which has switched from Q-5 to JH-7A in 2011. 24 shelters are constructed at Jiaxing, increasing the JH-7 total to 218.
After this change, I have 7 Q-5 regiments with each about 30 plus 27 at the Shenyang MR Training Base, total 240.
I now have 23 J-7 regiments, each at least 30 planes, plus about 25 at each of the MR training bases, plus 16 in FTTC 2 Regt plus 7 at 14 Base Dingxin, total about 900.
For J-8H/F, 10 should be added, to include 8 at FTTC 2 Regt and 2 at 14 Base Dingxin. Also the reconnaissance planes, at least 32 JZ-8F in 4 Recce Regt and 77 Regt, 26 Div, and 2 in 15 Regt, 5 PLANAF Div, may be included.