China Flanker Thread II

[SinoSoldier]

Just a strange rumour: There is a report at Twitter stating that there are rumours concerning a cancellation or the very likely abandonment of the J-11D program. Reportedly some SAC fans on CJDBY forums are really upset about this.

Allegedly the J-11D can't survive out of anti-stealth radar coverage in real battle and is more costly than the J-10C when within. Besides that for long range patrol over sea the J-16 and Su-35 are sufficient.

Does anyone know more ??

Deino

Can you link me to the original rumor?

If the J-11D isn't survivable under "anti-stealth" conditions, what makes them think the Su-35 is a better candidate?

 

[Blitzo]

Can you link me to the original rumor?

If the J-11D isn't survivable under "anti-stealth" conditions, what makes them think the Su-35 is a better candidate?

I'm not sure what the original rumour was, but based on Deino's writing of it, I don't think the supposed cancellation of J-11D would be associated with purchase of additional Su-35.


For long range patrol over the ocean (during peace time I presume), stealth won't matter as much, so J-16 and Su-35s could fulfill that role quite comfortably and J-16 in particular also has a role as a striker and is an aircraft that has already finished development and is in production.


J-11D otoh, may well end up being an advanced and capable fighter but not sufficiently more capable against the calibre of opfor that the military expects themselves to face for the cost that they may be built at compared to other fighters like J-10C.

 

[SinoSoldier]

I'm not sure what the original rumour was, but based on Deino's writing of it, I don't think the supposed cancellation of J-11D would be associated with purchase of additional Su-35.


For long range patrol over the ocean (during peace time I presume), stealth won't matter as much, so J-16 and Su-35s could fulfill that role quite comfortably and J-16 in particular also has a role as a striker and is an aircraft that has already finished development and is in production.


J-11D otoh, may well end up being an advanced and capable fighter but not sufficiently more capable against the calibre of opfor that the military expects themselves to face for the cost that they may be built at compared to other fighters like J-10C.

What doesn't make sense is that the J-11D is apparently incapable of holding its own in a radar environment but the report makes no mention of the J-16 or Su-35. Having similar airframes & size, one would expect the J-11D/J-16/Su-35 to have similar performances when it comes to evading radars.

So, the question becomes: what aspect of the J-11D is lacking that isn't when it comes to the J-16 & Su-35? If it's an issue with avionics, that should be dealt with the supplier of such systems, not the J-11D as a whole program.

The entire rumor doesn't make sense. It's like saying that the JF-17 Block II isn't capable of conducting BVR warfare but the JF-17 Block I can.

 

[Blitzo]

What doesn't make sense is that the J-11D is apparently incapable of holding its own in a radar environment but the report makes no mention of the J-16 or Su-35. Having similar airframes & size, one would expect the J-11D/J-16/Su-35 to have similar performances when it comes to evading radars.

So, the question becomes: what aspect of the J-11D is lacking that isn't when it comes to the J-16 & Su-35? If it's an issue with avionics, that should be dealt with the supplier of such systems, not the J-11D as a whole program.

The entire rumor doesn't make sense. It's like saying that the JF-17 Block II isn't capable of conducting BVR warfare but the JF-17 Block I can.

I think you are looking at this the wrong way..

Based on what Deino writes, the J-10C and J-11D and presumably J-16 and Su-35 are all more or less equally incapable of holding its own in the kind of combat scenario that the air force has envisioned.

However, the difference between J-11D vs J-10C and J-16 and Su-35 is that J-11D is not only a new fighter that has yet to complete development and enter production, but it is also likely significantly more expensive if one is comparing it to J-10C. J-11D probably offers capabilities that J-10C, J-16 and Su-35 do not have, but those capabilities aren't enough to improve its capabilities to a threshold that the air force is seeking.


So I don't think that J-11D is necessarily lacking anything -- it may well be better than J-10C, J-16 and Su-35... however only being better than all of those aircraft is not enough to entice the air force if it is incapable of confronting the threats the air force envisions, especially if it is at a price point that that the air force does not consider efficient (along with potential additional costs to finish its development).

 

[SinoSoldier]

I think you are looking at this the wrong way..

Based on what Deino writes, the J-10C and J-11D and presumably J-16 and Su-35 are all more or less equally incapable of holding its own in the kind of combat scenario that the air force has envisioned.

However, the difference between J-11D vs J-10C and J-16 and Su-35 is that J-11D is not only a new fighter that has yet to complete development and enter production, but it is also likely significantly more expensive if one is comparing it to J-10C. J-11D probably offers capabilities that J-10C, J-16 and Su-35 do not have, but those capabilities aren't enough to improve its capabilities to a threshold that the air force is seeking.


So I don't think that J-11D is necessarily lacking anything -- it may well be better than J-10C, J-16 and Su-35... however only being better than all of those aircraft is not enough to entice the air force if it is incapable of confronting the threats the air force envisions, especially if it is at a price point that that the air force does not consider efficient (along with potential additional costs to finish its development).

Are we to assume, then, that the domestic price for each J-11D exceeds $83 million (the price of a Su-35 that the Chinese bought), if price-capability ratio is really the issue here?

Sorry, but to reject a J-11D, which on paper is at the very least toe-to-toe with the Su-35, while purchasing Su-35s at likely inflated prices doesn't make sense. I'll give the J-16 the benefit of the doubt, since it's a strike fighter.

And isn't it always assumed that a Flanker would be more costly than a J-10C? The former has twice the number of engines, a bigger airframe, and scaled-up radars.

 

[Blitzo]

Are we to assume, then, that the domestic price for each J-11D exceeds $83 million (the price of a Su-35 that the Chinese bought), if price-capability ratio is really the issue here?

Sorry, but to reject a J-11D, which on paper is at the very least toe-to-toe with the Su-35, while purchasing Su-35s at likely inflated prices doesn't make sense. I'll give the J-16 the benefit of the doubt, since it's a strike fighter.

And isn't it always assumed that a Flanker would be more costly than a J-10C? The former has twice the number of engines, a bigger airframe, and scaled-up radars.

Considering Su-35s are only being bought in a small number and is not likely to be expected to perform the similar role or extent that J-11Ds would have been expected to do so, I think price-capability ratio is definitely a part of the issue. Even if a J-11D is less expensive than Su-35, considering only 24 Su-35s are being bought and that the Su-35 purchase has always been seen as a strange and rather costly affair, that has no consequence on J-11Ds status as an aircraft that would've likely been bought in large numbers and so its cost/performance ratio would be of greater interest than for Su-35


And yeah, of course it's always been assumed that a modern Flanker like J-11D would be more costly than a single engine modern fighter like J-10C. However, it was also understood before that a plane like J-11D would field other advantages as a result of its larger size (range, payload etc) that makes its greater cost worth the greater performance.

But with widespread proliferation of 5th generation fighters around the corner, seeking to develop a new variant of a heavy twin engine non-stealthy fighter that is not anymore survivable than an existing single engine fighter variant that's already in mass production which happens to be far more affordable... well I think the rationale for abandoning the development of such a new variant makes sense, and using that money for other more cost-efficient causes. The greater range and payload of the J-11D Flanker is probably less worth the cost due to their reduced survivability in modern air combat.

 

[SinoSoldier]

Considering Su-35s are only being bought in a small number and is not likely to be expected to perform the similar role or extent that J-11Ds would have been expected to do so, I think price-capability ratio is definitely a part of the issue. Even if a J-11D is less expensive than Su-35, considering only 24 Su-35s are being bought and that the Su-35 purchase has always been seen as a strange and rather costly affair, that has no consequence on J-11Ds status as an aircraft that would've likely been bought in large numbers and so its cost/performance ratio would be of greater interest than for Su-35


And yeah, of course it's always been assumed that a modern Flanker like J-11D would be more costly than a single engine modern fighter like J-10C. However, it was also understood before that a plane like J-11D would field other advantages as a result of its larger size (range, payload etc) that makes its greater cost worth the greater performance.

But with widespread proliferation of 5th generation fighters around the corner, seeking to develop a new variant of a heavy twin engine non-stealthy fighter that is not anymore survivable than an existing single engine fighter variant that's already in mass production which happens to be far more affordable... well I think the rationale for abandoning the development of such a new variant makes sense, and using that money for other more cost-efficient causes. The greater range and payload of the J-11D Flanker is probably less worth the cost due to their reduced survivability in modern air combat.

I won't comment on the nitty-gritty specifics of the J-11D's price/performance ratio, but I do see an issue with your assertion that the quick advent of 5th generation aircraft can somehow offset the cancellation of the J-11D program.

The production of the J-20 is still <24 airframes a year (probably close to single-digit figures at this point), which would be woefully inadequate to replace (or even complement) existing 4th generation aircraft such as the J-10 & J-11, much less the hundreds of obsolete J-7 & Q-5 that still serve. With the J-11B ending production (if not already at this stage), the PLAAF would have no air-superiority fighter that could bridge the gap between the 4th-gen J-11B & the J-20. It would take no less than a decade for the J-20 to completely replace the J-11X, and an additional 15-20 years for it to supplant the J-10s (assuming a 24 airframe/year production rate from the get-go).

At this point, I still think that there is a possibility (a likelihood, as a matter of fact) that the J-11D program is still alive. The entire cancellation rumor stemmed from one post from "Pupu" which stated that the PLAAF is seeking to purchase only the J-20, J-10C/D, & J-16 for the next few years. Furthermore, there have been rumors of a fourth J-11D prototype being built in late 2016.

 

[Blitzo]

I won't comment on the nitty-gritty specifics of the J-11D's price/performance ratio, but I do see an issue with your assertion that the quick advent of 5th generation aircraft can somehow offset the cancellation of the J-11D program.

The production of the J-20 is still <24 airframes a year (probably close to single-digit figures at this point), which would be woefully inadequate to replace (or even complement) existing 4th generation aircraft such as the J-10 & J-11, much less the hundreds of obsolete J-7 & Q-5 that still serve. With the J-11B ending production (if not already at this stage), the PLAAF would have no air-superiority fighter that could bridge the gap between the 4th-gen J-11B & the J-20. It would take no less than a decade for the J-20 to completely replace the J-11X, and an additional 15-20 years for it to supplant the J-10s (assuming a 24 airframe/year production rate from the get-go).

There are ways around the issues you described, and some of the issues you described aren't really issues at all.
For example,J-11Bs can be upgraded with radars and avionics to J-11D standard without having to build a new aircraft to be able to maintain a fleet of twin engine, long range, advanced 4+ generation fighters.
If J-11Ds are indeed not as cost effective as J-10Cs where it matters then the production rate of J-20 doesn't have anything to do with the air force turning down J-11D.

We also cannot yet discount what other fighter programmes the air force may have down the line that may influence their force structure, whether it's actually buying a variant of FC-31, or maybe buying a combat capable variant of JL-10, or even maybe a version of JH-XX, all of which would in turn may influence the future force structure in a way we do not yet know.

And this is all in context of the original possibility that J-11D may simply not be cost effective in the face of threats of the foreseeable future as compared to other aircraft like J-10 variants

Put all that together, and I think the question we should be asking ourselves is not whether J-11D is definitively going to be cancelled and why, but rather if J-11D is cancelled then are there any plausible reasons for it? And I think the answer to the latter question is yes.

At this point, I still think that there is a possibility (a likelihood, as a matter of fact) that the J-11D program is still alive. The entire cancellation rumor stemmed from one post from "Pupu" which stated that the PLAAF is seeking to purchase only the J-20, J-10C/D, & J-16 for the next few years. Furthermore, there have been rumors of a fourth J-11D prototype being built in late 2016.

Who knows. I personally am not convinced if the rumour of lack of J-11D purchase in the next few years is true or not.

However, if the rumour is true, I think there are a number of very reasonable explanations for why the air force may have declined J-11D.

 

[FORBIN]

What doesn't make sense is that the J-11D is apparently incapable of holding its own in a radar environment but the report makes no mention of the J-16 or Su-35. Having similar airframes & size, one would expect the J-11D/J-16/Su-35 to have similar performances when it comes to evading radars.

So, the question becomes: what aspect of the J-11D is lacking that isn't when it comes to the J-16 & Su-35? If it's an issue with avionics, that should be dealt with the supplier of such systems, not the J-11D as a whole program.

The entire rumor doesn't make sense. It's like saying that the JF-17 Block II isn't capable of conducting BVR warfare but the JF-17 Block I can.

And why Chinese AF don' t have buy the cheaper JF-17s for replaced many J-7, Q-5s ?

Thinking 35 millions $ for J-10C the A was worth in 2010, 28 millions : 28 mill + inflation + new radars etc... for J-11D ? but Russian sold a Su-30 for 40 millions so quite sure not a big difference.

 

[schenkus]

However, if the rumour is true, I think there are a number of very reasonable explanations for why the air force may have declined J-11D.

Looking at this question from another angle: how many J-11D could be produced in the next years ?

The way I understand it China can produce about 2 dozen flankers (J-11,J-15,J-16) each year, if you assume that both J-15s and J-16s are considered more urgent than newer J-11 versions there might just not be any production capacity left for enough J-11Ds to be worthwhile.
As already suggested it might make more sense to upgrade some older J-11 with part of the improvements while producing J-15s and J-16s.