Over the last ten years, we have heard...over and over again...rumors out of Russia saying that the Chinese are going to buy:
Tu-26 Backfires and import an entire Russian plant to do so.
SU-24 Strike Aircraft
SU-34 Strike Aircraft
Su-30s (More over what they already purchased
SU-35 Air Superiority fighters (this is the latest incarnation)
But my contention is that the Chinese are past the need or desire to import more Russian aircraft that have to use Russian sensors, Russian weapons, and Russian engines.
Let's review the history.
Back in 1991 the Chinese began taking delivery of SU-27s from Russia (75 altogether I believe) and then license built more in China as the J-11. I believe about 100 J-11s were produced.
They did this up until the time that they reverse engineered the design and then built the J-11B. The J-11B is almost entirely indigenous to China, and they have built (I believe) over 120 of them now. For China, their own J-11B China is a newer, better SU-27 that works with all of the Chinese sensors and weapons...and added other niceties that the Chinese designed into it.
Back at the tail end of the Chinese purchase of Russian combat aircraft, the Chinese purchased a number SU-30MKK and SU-30MK2 aircraft. Seventy six SU-30MKK were delivered between 2000-2003 to the PLAAF, and 24 SU-30MK2 were delivered in 2004 to the PLANAF. They did this, as with the SU-27, to provide a very useful stop gap between their aged aircraft and the new aircraft they wanted to bring into service themselves. But they knew that there was going to be a time gap...so they brought on the SU-30s too.
Since then, no more SU-30s have been purchased...all rumors aside.
Instead, now, the Chinese are starting to produce their own J-16. I believe probably as many as 12-24 of them have been produced now. Again, for China their own J-16 is a newer, better SU-30MKK that works with all of the Chinese sensors and weapons...and adds other niceties that the Chinese designed into it.
Then came time for the Chinese to develop their carrier born aircraft. Lots of rumors said they were going to buy the SU-33 from Russia. But the Chinese only needed to acquire a single SU-33 prototype (and that from the Ukraine) and then used it and their own J-11Bs to produce their J-15 naval strike fighter. They have produced at least six prototypes and now about a dozen full production aircraft. And you know what? The J-15 for China is a newer, better SU-33 that works with all of the Chinese sensors and weapons...and added other niceties that the Chinese designed into it.
I believe the pattern is clear.
The Chinese got very decent Russian aircraft as stop gaps when they needed them most. They did this, ultimately in only two arenas, the SU-27 and the SU-30 aircraft. They did so for two purposes:
1) A stop gap to give them a decent number of more modern, more capable aircraft to help counter any western threats. (About 275 aircraft altogether)
2) To help jump start their own aircraft industries with reverse engineered designs that met or exceeded the capabilities they had acquired from Russia, and did it with Chinese sensors and weapons...which was and is a huge benefit for China.
They then went on in the two areas (Su-27 and SU-30) to produce their own aircraft (J-11B and J-16), and then leveraged the knowledge they had acquired and their own production capability to produce a third (the J-15) without having to buy any Russian aircraft at ll.
Since the last SU-30MK2s were delivered, the Chinese have not made any more new combat aircraft purchases like the SU-27s and the SU-30s. It has been over ten years.
Instead, the Chinese have developed and deployed their own J-10 aircraft, and done so in strong numbers. And, more recently, they have developed their own 5th generation fighter (the J-20) and are on the brink of putting it into production.
They now have a full range of indigenous aircraft that use Chinese sensors, use Chinese weapons and use Chinese engines...even their engine industry is not quite up to where the Chinese want it.
JH-7A Strike/Attack
J-10 Fighter/Attack
J-11B Fighter
J-15 Naval Strike Fighter
J-16 Strike
J-20 (coming)) 5th Generation Fighter
All of these are capable aircraft and all of them fully leverage Chinese comm, Chinese sensors, Chinese weapons...and are positioned to fully leverage Chinese engine technology.
As a result of all of this, and the history of it, I simply do not believe that the Chinese have any need or desire to go backwards in this...meaning back to acquiring Russian aircraft (however good) that require Russian sensors, Russian weapons, and Russian engines.
I believe the Chinese are past that.
