China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
From SCMP for those critic of China nuclear development thing doesn't always seem like it look
Via broadsword
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China is aggressively developing its next generation of nuclear weapons, conducting an average of five tests a month to simulate nuclear blasts, according to a major Chinese weapons research institute.

Its number of simulated tests has in recent years outpaced that of the United States, which conducts them less than once a month on average.

Between September 2014 and last December, China carried out around 200 laboratory experiments to simulate the extreme physics of a nuclear blast, the China Academy of Engineering Physics reported in a document released by the government earlier this year and reviewed by the South China Morning Post this month.

In comparison, the US carried out only 50 such tests between 2012 and 2017 – or about 10 a year – according to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

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As China joins the US and Russia in pursuing more targeted nuclear weapons as a deterrent against potential threats, the looming arms race would in fact serve the opposite purpose by increasing the risk of a nuclear conflict, experts warn.

Pentagon officials have said the US wants its enemies to believe it might actually use its new-generation weapons, such as smaller, smarter tactical warheads designed to limit damage by destroying only specific targets.

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But with these relatively safer and less destructive weapons in hand, governments may end up losing the inhibition to use them.

“The use of small warheads will lead to the use of bigger ones,” Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie told the Post.

Still, despite China being highly unlikely to actually deploy its nuclear weapons, it remained necessary to develop them, he said.

“If other countries use nuclear weapons on us, we have to retaliate. This is probably why there is research to develop new weapons.”

Although an international ban prevents nuclear weapons from being tested – with high-profile exceptions like North Korea – the major nuclear powers have been able to continue conducting simulated tests.


Such tests are typically carried out using high-powered gas guns that fire projectiles at weapons-grade materials in laboratories.

Over the past three years, Chinese nuclear scientists have performed more such tests than their American counterparts have in 15 years.

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In tunnels deep under mountains in Mianyang, southwestern Sichuan province, where China’s main nuclear design facilities are based, loud blasts from these experiments can be heard more than once a week.

In comparison, between 2003 and 2017, the US fired a total of 150 simulated shots at its Joint Actinide Shock Physics Experimental Research (Jasper) facility at the Nevada National Security Site.

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But China’s large number of simulated tests did not mean it was ahead of the US in nuclear weapons development, according to Professor Wang Chuanbin, from the State Key Laboratory of Advanced Technology for Materials Synthesis and Processing at the Wuhan University of Technology.

In fact, its number of live tests paled in comparison with the US, said Wang, whose team supplied the Mianyang research centre, which combines the functions of several leading American nuclear facilities, with critical materials for its experiments.

The US has detonated more than 1,000 nuclear warheads since 1945, when a nuclear bomb was set off for the first time as part of the Manhattan Project.

In contrast, China has carried out only 45 live tests starting from 1964.

“It is possible we are in a hurry to catch up,” Wang said.

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However, if China’s intensive tests triggered a new nuclear arms race by spurring counter action from the US, “that would be bad news for everyone”, he added.

But China has likely surpassed the US in some important areas in nuclear weapons research, according to Luo Guoqiang, another researcher at the lab.

“Part of the drive comes from technical breakthroughs, and part from increased financial support from the government,” Luo said.

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The tests are conducted using a large, sophisticated facility known as a multi-stage gas gun, which simulates the extreme heat, pressure and shock waves produced in a real nuclear blast.

The experiments with the gas gun provide scientists with the data they need to develop more advanced nuclear weapons.

In the past, researchers used supercomputers to draw on historic data derived from live nuclear tests performed before the international ban was imposed in the 1990s.

But new technology that emerged in recent years, such as hypersonic vehicles and artificial intelligence, opened the door for the development of new nuclear weapons that could be smaller in size and more precise.

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These new weapons are considered more “usable” for tactical tasks such as destroying an underground bunker while generating little radioactive fallout.

And while they are not as destructive and cannot obliterate entire cities like their predecessors could, they are still far more powerful than conventional weapons.

Researchers Luo and Wang’s laboratory produces a key component used in the gas gun, known as the graded impactor.

The gun works by using special explosives to force a piston down a hydrogen-filled metal tube.

When the hydrogen gas reaches a certain temperature and pressure, a valve opens to project the impactor at extremely high speeds – of at least 30,000km per hour (18,640mph) – towards a target.

When the impactor hits the target, which is made of the same materials used in nuclear warheads, such as plutonium, the collision produces a chemical reaction similar to that of a nuclear detonation.

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
(cont)
The impactor, which is smaller than a saucer, is made up of multiple layers of carefully chosen materials – such as metal, plastic or foam – of different densities.

They are extremely difficult to make, and any structural defects, even over a microscopically small area of just a few nanometres, could wreck the experiment, according to Luo.

A well-made impactor, on the other hand, not only generates higher-quality data but also allows the experiments to proceed faster at lower cost.

“The making of the impactor involves the cream of precision manufacturing. Thanks to numerous breakthroughs in recent years we are now beating our counterparts in the US with a series of impactors with superior performance,” he said.

James Lewis, senior vice-president at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, said a new round of the nuclear arms race had already begun, though public opinion had yet to catch up with the grim reality.

The White House is considering a US$1.2 trillion plan to upgrade its nuclear stockpile. Earlier this year, the Pentagon announced it would develop new low-yield nuclear weapons that could be mounted on conventional cruise missiles and launched by submarines.

These developments were a response to Russia’s actions, according to Lewis.

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The Russian government under Vladimir Putin has in recent years revealed a series of new nuclear weapon programmes, including smaller weapons, as well as a super torpedo capable of wiping out coastal cities.

“It’s not clear to me how successful the Russian programme will be, but it has stirred everyone up on the subject,” Lewis said.

US officials have said they want America’s nuclear arsenal to be a “credible” deterrent to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

The Donald Trump administration has been more willing than previous administrations to discuss the possibility of using nuclear weapons – most notoriously in the president’s own rhetoric such as the threat to unleash “fire and fury” on North Korea.

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“After some debate, the US decided it needed to think about warheads, without the need for actual tests,” Lewis said. “It wouldn’t surprise me if China saw all this and decided that it had better get in the game.”

China’s new generation of tactical nuclear weapons are designed for use in close-range battles, for example by wiping out an entire aircraft carrier group.

Beijing is embroiled in a number of territorial disputes in areas such as the South China Sea and the Himalayas. It has also never renounced the use of force to bring self-ruled Taiwan back under its control.

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In February, soon after the US announced its new nuclear weapons policy, Chinese state-run tabloid Global Times published an editorial saying that China would seriously consider going public with its low-yield nuclear weapons programme as a response to the new nuclear arms race.

“China is a nation capable of massively increasing the size and improving the technology of its nuclear stockpiles,” stated the newspaper, known for its stridently nationalistic tone.

“China needs a new policy to deal with a new situation,” it added.

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But the Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said that after years of rapid development, China’s conventional military forces were capable of safeguarding the nation’s interests in the disputed areas without having to resort to nuclear options.

The chance that China would ever use nuclear weapons on its doorstep was remote, Li said, not least because Beijing had pledged that it would never be the first to employ nuclear arms regardless of the circumstances.

“Governments should strive to avoid the nuclear arms race instead of escalating it,” he said.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Deployment should be close now if it not already deployed so much for the theory China only has 100 warheads
China Flight Tests New Multi-Warhead ICBM
Tenth DF-41 launch shows Beijing's most lethal nuclear missile nears deployment
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Photo of China's DF-41 ICBM
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June 5, 2018 5:00 am

China moved closer to deploying its newest and most lethal strategic weapon by conducting the 10th flight test of the DF-41 intercontinental-range missile last week.

Defense officials said the flight test of the multi-warhead DF-41 took place May 27 at the Taiyuan Space Launch Center in northern China and flew overland several thousand miles to an impact zone in the western Gobi Desert.

"We are aware of recent flight tests and we continue to monitor weapons development in China but we cannot provide information on specific tests," Pentagon spokesman Marine Corps Lt. Col. Christopher Logan told the Washington Free Beacon.

The flight test comes amid growing tensions between the United States and China over Beijing's militarization of islands in the South China Sea and a looming trade war over the Trump administration's aggressive posture toward unfair Chinese trade practices.

The flight test last week was the 10th known launch of the DF-41 that will be armed with up to 10 multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles or MIRV warheads.

The intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system will be deployed on a road-mobile ICBM capable of targeting all of the United States. The mobility and ability to hide the weapon from intelligence detection poses serious challenges for U.S. strategic nuclear deterrence.

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China's state media have said the DF-41 will be capable of being armed with up to 10 warheads each with a yield of 150 kilotons, or single, massive, 5.5 megaton warhead. A kiloton is the equivalent of 1,000 tons of TNT; a megaton is equal to 1 million tons.

The addition of multiple warheads to all of China's ICBMs represents a substantial increase in the number of warheads in the arsenal capable of ranging all of the United States.

China made no mention of the latest flight test in state controlled media.

However, Chinese authorities announced in an international notice to airmen the closure of airspace on May 27 along a flight path used past DF-41 tests, according to Henri Kenhmann, who runs the East Pendulum blog that monitors Chinese military developments.

The main Communist Party newspaper reported in December that the DF-41 is one of Beijing's most potent new weapons. The People's Daily
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the DF-41 would be fielded early in 2018 and has a range of over 7,500 miles.

As in the past, the latest DF-41 flight test appeared timed to send a political message to the United States.

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The most recent test took place days before a U.S. trade delegation headed by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross visited China for talks.

China issued a statement Sunday warning that if the Trump administration goes ahead with plans to impose $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods that Beijing would break off past trade accords.

"If the United States introduces trade sanctions including tariffs, all the economic and trade achievements negotiated by the two parties will be void," the official Xinhua news agency said.

Before last week, the most recent DF-41 flight test took place Nov. 6—two days before President Trump visited Beijing in what military analysts said was an intentional show of force prior to the presidential visit.

A
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made public last year by the National Air and Space Intelligence Center said the DF-41 is a new road-mobile ICBM likely capable of carrying MIRV payloads.

"The number of warheads on Chinese ICBMs capable of threatening the United States is expected to grow to well over 100 in the next five years," the report said, noting China's Strategic Rocket Force "continues to have the most active and diverse ballistic missile development program in the world."

"It is developing and testing offensive missiles, forming additional missile units, qualitatively upgrading missile systems, and developing methods to counter ballistic missile defenses," the report said.

Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the 10th flight test is a significant milestone.

The test "means this mobile, solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile is much closer to deployment, in both its road-mobile and rail-mobile versions," Fisher said.

"As the missile already has been tested with up to 10 new small warheads, it can be expected that the DF-41 may also become an early carrier of China's developing nuclear and non-nuclear maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicle warheads," Fisher added.

Hypersonic glide vehicle warheads, when deployed in the next several years will provide China with a capability the United States has sought to develop through its non-nuclear rapid strike system known as Prompt Global Strike concept, he said.

Additionally, the DF-41 is expected to accelerate China's development of a next-generation JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile for the new Type 096 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine that is expected to come on line in the early 2020s.

"China's rapidly modernizing intercontinental nuclear and non-nuclear strike capabilities undermines the credibility of America's extended nuclear deterrent upon which so many U.S. allies have come to depend," Fisher said.

"Washington must rapidly redeploy theater tactical nuclear weapons or some U.S. allies could opt for their own nuclear deterrent in the face of China's growing missile threats."

Air Force Gen. John Hyten, commander of the Strategic Command, told a congressional hearing in March that the Chinese and Russian nuclear buildups are behind plans for the Untied States to build a new sea-launched nuclear cruise missile.

"The threat is from both Russia and China that drives the need for the sea-launched cruise missile," Hyten said.

A senior Strategic Command official told the Free Beacon earlier this year that plans for new low-yield nuclear warheads were prompted by China's large-scale deployment of medium- and intermediate-range nuclear missiles, and Russia's treaty-violating ground-launched medium-range nuclear cruise missile.

To deal with the China threat, Strategic Command recommended deploying a new sea-launched missile, to be fired from either a surface warship or submarine.

The new smaller warheads, that can be developed from the existing primary nuclear warheads currently in the arsenal, were recommended in the Pentagon's recent Nuclear Posture Review completed in February.

The review warned that China is engaged in a large-scale buildup that includes future deployment of the DF-41 that the Pentagon calls the CSS-X-20.

"China continues to increase the number, capabilities, and protection of its nuclear forces," the report said, noting excessive secrecy surrounding the build up.

The Pentagon report mentioned the DF-41 as one of the major worries.

"China has developed a new road-mobile strategic intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a new multi-warhead version of its DF-5 silo-based ICBM, and its most advanced ballistic missile submarine armed with new submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). It has also announced development of a new nuclear-capable strategic bomber, giving China a nuclear triad. China has also deployed a nuclear-capable precision guided DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of attacking land and naval targets.

A Chinese Embassy spokesman did not return an email seeking comment on the missile test.

China's Defense Ministry has said in the past in response to an earlier DF-41 test that it was common for missile tests to be carried out for scientific research.

"Such tests are not aimed at any specific country and target," the ministry said in response to an April 2017 DF-41 test.
 

Franklin

Captain
Can someone here explain what the mach 12 hypersonic gliders have over the mach 25 ICBM reentry vehicles. Because the US, Russia and China are all spending big money developing them.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Can someone here explain what the mach 12 hypersonic gliders have over the mach 25 ICBM reentry vehicles. Because the US, Russia and China are all spending big money developing them.

Agility and harder to detect.

ICBMs fly classic ballistic and predictable flight paths, and so are easy to detect at longer ranges, and comparatively easier to try to shoot down with BMD.

Hypersonic gliders can be far more agile, and fly much lower, making them harder to detect and far harder to try to intercept.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Add to that Mach 25 is terminal velocity but anti missile defense will hit the ICMB at mid course before it can release the war head, when it is most vulnerable
But glider flight path is close to stratosphere and it can skip in and out of the stratosphere like the flat pebble that you throw at the water surface . Making it much more unpredictable and hard to hit
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
From Henri K blog
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Just four months after the previous test, and for the third time in seven months, the Chinese rocket force has again fired its new Sol-Sol DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile. This is a priori the 10th publicly known launch of this Chinese mobile ICBM since July 2012.

The takeoff took place on May 27 around 12:18 pm Beijing time, from a site that should be located near the Taiyuan Space Center (TSLC). The flight of the craft in the direction West to Korla is first reported by two messages to aircrafts (NOTAM), alerting the presence of two air segments closed on any altitude that are almost identical to those of previous DF-41 confirmed tests in
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and
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, except that the long fallout zone is absent this time for an unknown reason.

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2018.05.27

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A1899 / 18
Q) ZLHW / QARLC / IV / NBO / E / 000/999 / 4020N10322E166
A) ZLHW B) 180527 0418 C) 180527 0527
E) FLY SEGMENTS OF ATS RTE CLSD:
1. A596: YABRAI VOR'YBL ' - DENGKOU VOR'DKO '.
2. B330: YABRAI VOR'YBL '- GOBIN.

A1898 / 18
Q) ZLHW / QARLC / IV / NBO / E / 000/999 / 4020N10322E166
A) ZLHW B) 180527 0426 C) 180527 0500
E) FLY SEGMENTS OF ATS RTE CLSD:
1. A596: YABRAI VOR'YBL ' - DENGKOU VOR'DKO '.
2. B330: YABRAI VOR'YBL '- GOBIN.

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The nature of this shot is then confirmed by Lieutenant-Colonel Christopher Logan, Pentagon spokesman, and relayed by Bill Gertz in
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. The author suggests that this Chinese missile, which can equip up to ten independent warheads (MiRV) and whose range is capable of reaching the United States, could enter service soon.

And some intercontinental strategic strike units of the Chinese rocket force already seem to be preparing for the reception of this new vector. For example, an alleged DF-41 10 × 16 tractor-erector-tow (TEL) tractor was
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, in northwest China's Heilongjiang Province.

There is still little known about the new DF-41, except that its development should be driven by the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT ) Institute, a subsidiary of the Chinese aerospace group CASC and specialized in the design of Long March rockets as well as many Chinese ballistic missiles, such as the DF-15, DF-26 and DF-31 for example.

To be continued.

Henri K.

 

Orthan

Senior Member
From Henri K blog
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Just four months after the previous test, and for the third time in seven months, the Chinese rocket force has again fired its new Sol-Sol DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile. This is a priori the 10th publicly known launch of this Chinese mobile ICBM since July 2012.

I wonder if these tests are being sucessfull, or if they are having trouble with this project. For how long has this missile been in development?
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I wonder if these tests are being sucessfull, or if they are having trouble with this project. For how long has this missile been in development?

ICBM testing is long drawn affair Bulova the Russian SLBM has been testing for more than 2 decades so long testing is not indication of failure
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Anyway on different subject Hypersonic missile here is the article from Henri K blog

MF-1, Ling Yun ... These hypersonic Chinese testbeds
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BY
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While hypersonic weapon programs are proliferating everywhere in the world's major military powers, as cited in
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, the development of adequate test facilities has become simply a desirable element but an absolute necessity.

And China, which also focuses on the military application of hypersonic vector and has developed and put into service new weapons like
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for example, is no exception to the rule. and also multiplies platforms that can serve as test bed flying in this particular area.

Although most of these developments are kept secret, but two of them have surfaced lately including a public statement.

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The main gear "Ling Yun"

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The project is funded by NSFC

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Description of Hypersonic Flying Test Bench "Ling Yun"

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Excerpt from a patent, on a GSE for the assembly of "Ling Yun"

" Ling Yun ", 凌云 in Chinese, is designed by the National University of Defense Technology (NUDT) and presented for the first time at the International Exhibition of Civil-Military Integration (early May) that took place in early May in Beijing.

According to the description of these universities of the Chinese military, which is directly attached to the Central Military Commission (CMC) and works on many topics of basic research upstream, especially in the field of electromagnetic propulsion, supercomputer and the hypersonic, Ling Yun aims to become a low-cost hypersonic test bench.

Aside from a full-size model, NUDT did not give any technical details on its hypersonic engine but indicates that it did its first test flight successfully on December 12, 2015, at the Jiuquan Space Center (JSLC) .

The photos and the model shown show that the flying test bench is separated into two stages, the first being a booster probably solid propellant. The main engine, with a diameter of about 80 centimeters, has an axisymmetric tapered air inlet and four stabilizing fins, which suggests that it is primarily a ramjet test platform, either ramjet or scramjet.

Note that the physical appearance of Ling Yun, at first glance, is close to the HyFly program (Hypersonics Flight Demonstration program), an American demonstrator initiated by DARPA and the ONR of the US Navy and developed by Boeing. The original goal is to serve as a starting point for a hypersonic cruise missile at Mach 6 and above, capable of being launched from an airplane or ship. But if one believes in the official presentation, Ling Yun's objective would rather be to provide a "generic" test bench for other ramjet programs or to perform near-space physical tests.

The logo printed on the Ling Yun cell also shows that the program is funded by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (NSFC), an entity attached to the Chinese State Council and which funds programs of basic and applied research of the national scale.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
(cont)

of the national scale.

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The hypersonic test stand MF-1

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The composition of the MF-1

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The MF-1 ballistic flight profile on its first test flight

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The MF-1 after its first flight that took place on December 30, 2015.

And Ling Yun does not seem to be the only hypersonic testbed that made its first flight in December 2015. Indeed, the study of four R & D documents published by CARDC military researchers (China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center) between 2017 and 2018 indicates that another gear similar to Ling Yun was also tested in the same month, two weeks apart.

Called MF-1, the main objective of the machine would be to deepen the knowledge of two phenomena in fluid mechanics, namely the laminar-turbulent transition and the shock wave / boundary layer interactions, subjects which are also studied by the United States and Australia via their HiFire joint program, especially during the 1st, 5th and 9th flights.

Other phenomena such as the non-equilibrium chemical effect or the effect of the poor gas are also part of the studies.

CARDC, also known as "Test Base No. 29" or Unit 68320, is the largest and most important Chinese institution in aerodynamic research and testing. All Chinese military programs have the obligation to go through the CARDC box to validate their aerodynamic profile.

The data extracted from these research papers indicate that the first ballistic flight of the MF-1 took place on December 30, 2015, and just as for Ling Yun, the takeoff was done at the Jiuquan Space Center.

The machine, uncontrolled once the propelled phase ended, reached a Mach speed of 5.33 and a peak of 63.3 km. The test windows are between 10 and 20 km from the ground for the laminar-turbulent transition, and between 20 and 40 km above sea level for the shock wave / boundary layer interactions.

The CARDC then speaks of a "series platform" designed to study the fundamentals of hypersonic aerodynamics, a first in China.

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Ling Yun (left) and MF-1, on the same shot at the Jiuquan Space Center.

Finally, it should be noted that, according to the available images, Ling Yun and MF-1 both used the same firing point at JSLC for their first flight test, and they visibly use the same solid propellant booster for the acceleration phase from the ground.

And the fact that the dates of these two tests are also very close to each other, we do not exclude that the two projects are put in competition for a hypothetical hypersonic test platform common to all programs to come, although physically the two off booster gear are very different.

Another possibility is that one serves as a test bed for propellant systems in-flight testing, while the other focuses on purely mechanical studies.

To be continued.

Henri K.
 
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