China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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Figaro

Senior Member
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Multiple Chinese ballistic missile firing?
Rocket forces or Chinese missile manufacturers could conduct several ballistic missile shots in the past two days in the usual western areas of China.

The series starts with two first launches that took place this Wednesday August 23 in the morning, first from 02:09 to 02:30 UTC, and then about an hour later from 03:19 to 04:00.

It is also noted that these two shots share the same fallout zone, which is 80 × 40 km, smaller than the previous DF-31 and DF-41 missile tests, for example.

This area also joins the Taiyuan Space Launch Center (TSLC) on the same line of sight and direction, suggesting that the missiles would be launched from this location where a good part of the Chinese ballistic missile tests since now 50 years.

But if the two missiles, probably of the same model, have exactly the same fallout zone, the second shot will benefit from a forbidden overflight segment that diagonally crosses the zone.

A2506 / 17
Q) ZLHW / QRTCA / IV / BO / W / 000/999 / 3958N10514E024
A) ZLHW B) 1708230209 C) 1708230400
D) 0209-0230, 0319-0400
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED bounded BY:
N401204E1044922- N400419E1054447-N394305E1053937-N395047E1044429
BACK TO START.VERTICAL LIMITS: GND-UNL.
F) GND G) UNL

A
) (A) ZLHW / QARLC / IV / NBO / E /
000/999 / A) ZLHW B) 1708230310 C) 1708230340
E) THE YABRAI SEGMENT VOR'YBL'-DENGKOU VOR'DKO 'OF ATS RTE A596
CLSD.

5RghVtE.jpg
The fall zone and the aerial segment are prohibited from overflying (Image: East Pendulum)

pyhNSlR.jpg

The ballistic missile could have been launched from the TSLC center in the direction of Korla (Image: East Pendulum)

Note that a third shot could have had the same day in the afternoon - indeed, another message to air navigators (NOTAM) was also published, prohibiting any overflight over a single aerial segment.

The latter appears to be on the flight path of another ballistic missile, but this remains to be confirmed.

S7YABSR.jpg

A third possible shot on 23 August 2017 (Image: East Pendulum)

Two other ballistic missile launches would also be scheduled the next day, on Thursday, August 24, in the southeast of the Taklamakan desert if one believes in the contents of the three NOTAMs concerned.

The first would take place between 02:10 and 03:50 UTC in a 900 km long zone. It could involve one of the units of base No. 56 of the Chinese rocket forces based in the vicinity.

A2528 / 17
Q) ZWUQ / QARLT / IV / NBO / E / 000/999 /
A) ZWUQ B) 1708240210 C) 1708240340
E) SEGMENTS OF THE FLW ATS RTE CLSD:
1.L888: SADAN-NOLEP
2.Y1: SADAN -MAGOD
3.W112: QIEMO VOR 'QIM'-ADMUX
4.W187: SADAN-OBDEG
F) FL000 G) FL999

A2522 / 17
Q) ZLHW / QARLC / IV / NBO / E / 000/999 /
A) ZLHW B) 1708240215 C) 1708240350
E) SEGMENTS OF THE FLW ATS RTE CLSD:
1.Y1: LUSMA-MAGOD
2.W112: TUSLI -ADMUX
3.W192: TUSLI-DUMIN

3gFrBMC.jpg

The no-fly zone in the first launch of ballistic missile on 24 August (Image: East Pendulum)

When the second hypothetical shot, it is indicated by the presence of a forbidden segment of flight, active between 04:40 and 05:40 UTC. However, it is unclear whether this is actually a shorter-range ballistic missile or other type of activity.

A2525 / 17
Q) ZLHW / QARLC / IV / NBO / E /
000/999 / A) ZLHW B) 1708240440 C) 1708240540
E) THE TUSLI - VIKUP OF ATS SEGMENT RTE W112 CLSD.

EGTZLcQ.jpg

The closed air segment that could signal the second launch of ballistic missile on August 24 (Image: East Pendulum)

To be continued.

Henri K.
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
How many nukes would it take to create a Nuclear Winter where everyone in the world starves to death?

...the climatic effects of a regional nuclear war in which 100 "small" (15 Kt) weapons are detonated over cities. They concluded that:

global ozone losses of 20–50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years. We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30–80% over Mid-Latitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10–40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years, due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine.

I think it would be in China's strategic interest to produce and then publicly release an updated climate model on the effects of say 200x 100KT nuclear detonations.

That would also both Russia and the USA to confirm the results, although Russia may find that difficult because it doesn't have the supercomputing capacity that China/USA have.

Then both civilian and military decision makers would have to accept that a nuclear exchange (even if they "win") is not an option.

That benefits China as it currently is currently at a disadvantage in a theoretical nuclear exchange.
 
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Broccoli

Senior Member
China has been very sensible in restraining the size of its nuclear stockpile whilst modernising delivery platforms, guidance systems, etc. Look at the enormous bill the US is facing to regenerate its nuclear capabilities over the next 15 years (up to $1tn by some estimates) and one can see the wisdom of China's approach.

Make that $2 Trillion over the next 15 years as cost over runs, inflation, and the rising value of the dollar creeps up. o_O:eek:

There has been talk about US retirining it's land based missiles and go with air and sea delivery. US sea based deterrence is so robust that they only have ICBM's because of "that's how it has always been".
 

Broccoli

Senior Member
Chinese and French scientist had dealings with each others back in 90s...could have been civilian research together but why do that in military base?


From 1993 onwards both seem to have been testing weapon with yield of 90-100kt (TN-75 and China mirv). Coincidence?
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chinois49

New Member
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Chinese and French scientist had dealings with each others back in 90s...could have been civilian research together but why do that in military base?


From 1993 onwards both seem to have been testing weapon with yield of 90-100kt (TN-75 and China mirv). Coincidence?
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In French, i am not serious:
Parce qu'il y a des bridés au
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No, its probably because the scientists want test the igniton of the secondary (fusion) by the primary (fission) and the geometry of the weapon. Low yield for less nuclear materials.
The yield of the weapon can be modulate without tests:
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NB the yield of the north corean test is around 60-100Kt....
 
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