China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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AndrewS

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Insignius said:
No matter what number, China needs nuclear parity.

The US still operates under the assumption of them being able to actually "win" a nuclear war. That's basically the same as the Gangster always assuming that he could just shoot you dead if you have the gall to defend yourself when he mugs you.

If the US had 7k nukes, China needs at least 3k. If the US has 1500 nukes, China needs at least 800 to 1000. It needs to be ensured that the US has to use a considerable portion of their nuclear forces to disarm China which would leave them vulnerable to Russian and North Korean nukes.
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How many nukes is enough?

I'd say 50 DF-41s or DF-31s with a total of 500 warheads would definitely be enough of a deterrent.

Given some attrition, it would be enough for all major targets

If there are 500 delivery systems, we're talking about potentially thousands of deployed warheads.
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
james smith esq said:
They might have that many warheads. Just not deployed on delivery systems.

At current levels, China probably needs, at least 500 ICBM/SSBM delivery systems, though 600 might be better.
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what make you think The Chinese haven't? ;)

I believe the Chinese have had at least 500 warheads on ICBM/SLBM already .. Chinese top leaders are not stupid and obviously way smarter than you'd think
 
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Broccoli

Broccoli

Senior Member
antiterror13 said:
what make you think The Chinese haven't? ;)

I believe the Chinese have had at least 500 warheads on ICBM/SLBM already .. Chinese top leaders are not stupid and obviously way smarter than you'd think
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Because in real life weapons need maintanance. You can't just manufacture warheads and then leave them in some cave... perhaps in computer games it's works like that, but in reality things are extremely complicated.


Huge industry is needed to maintain warheads and you can't hide that sort of activity... modern nuclear warhead is an weapon system itself what has batteries, explosives, software, safety systems, and everything else crammed into small package.

All that requires skilled workers who have to live near their work places, and you can't hide human activity related to that sort of operations, etc.
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
Broccoli said:
Because in real life weapons need maintanance. You can't just manufacture warheads and then leave them in some cave... perhaps in computer games it's works like that, but in reality things are extremely complicated.


Huge industry is needed to maintain warheads and you can't hide that sort of activity... modern nuclear warhead is an weapon system itself what has batteries, explosives, software, safety systems, and everything else crammed into small package.

All that requires skilled workers who have to live near their work places, and you can't hide human activity related to that sort of operations, etc.
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what actually your point? you don't tell us anything we don't know. Yes the sky is blue :)
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
antiterror13 said:
what actually your point? you don't tell us anything we don't know. Yes the sky is blue :)
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His point is that foreign intelligence services can and do keep tabs of activity at Chinese nuclear warhead servicing facilities to help assess the number of warheads the Chinese have.

The obvious problem with that logic is that it ignores the possibly Chinese has built warhead maintenance facilities inside its mountain hideouts.
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
plawolf said:
His point is that foreign intelligence services can and do keep tabs of activity at Chinese nuclear warhead servicing facilities to help assess the number of warheads the Chinese have.

The obvious problem with that logic is that it ignores the possibly Chinese has built warhead maintenance facilities inside its mountain hideouts.
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good one .. @Broccoli thought that China would regularly make the warhead facilities full open for everybody, including foreign intelligence .... :):):)
 
AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
You can get a rough estimate on how many possible nukes a country has by the international nuclear agencies. I'm not sure exactly how it works or which agencies are involved but the international trade in nuclear materials and technology is regulated. So if a country wants to have nuclear power for electricity or trade in it like with uranium, you have to be a member or else countries like the US will make it difficult for the country by leading other members to follow suit according to the rules. It's rule by gangbang much like the missile technology control regime (MTCR). It's not international law but all members are suppose to join together to take action against members violating or force a non-member through gangbanging pressure. One of the requirements being a member is allowing these international agencies into whatever country's nuclear facilities for inspections. There they will cross check with their records all materials the country has which tells inspectors how much plutonium could've been produce and if any materials are missing from inventory. You can estimate how many nuclear weapons could be made from it. Of course there are holes in the system because for example a country that has it's own uranium deposits could hide it but they most likely will still need to buy the technology to process it hence why the selling of those technologies too are regulated and reported.
 
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