From Henri K blog East Pendulum
We talked here on Saturday 14 January,
, for which we have highlighted the presence of an unusually large impact area south of the Taklamakan desert, where the possibility Whether it is a test of missile with several independent warheads (MiRV) is evoked. Finally according to two American officers close monitoring of missile tests, it would, in fact, a test firing of 10 MiRVs worn by a Chinese ICBM model
DF-5C.
The information was relayed by Bill Gertz, an editor and observer of Asian affairs on
.
Before going further into the interpretation of this new provision by the Americans, let us first recall what we said at the time:
It should be noted that this zone of ballistic impact is abnormally large and measures more than 125 000 km². By way of comparison, during the DF-41 intercontinental missile test which took place on 12 April 2016, where two MiRVs were tested according to US intelligence services, the impact area measured only 100 km × 60 Km, ie an area of 6,000 km², it is almost 21 times smaller than that of the test of January 15, 2017.
The size of this impact zone could thus indicate the test of several MiRVs - the French M-4A ballistic missile can cover, for example, a wide area of 150 km × 350 km - or a Boost- Glide.
We can see in the bottom diagram the impact zone of the supposed DF-5C - circular - and those rectangular (in orange) of the trial of another ICBM Chinese
DF-41 April 12, 2016, where two Ogives would have been dropped, still according to American sources.
The areas forbidden in the DF-5C test in yellow and the DF-41 in orange (Source: East Pendulum)
So what can we say more about this almost unpublished test because this is the first time that such a number of Chinese MiRVs have been used in a test while China has mastered this technology at least since September 2008 when two Chinese satellites,
HJ-1A and
HJ-1B, were placed in two different orbits with a rocket
CZ-2C .
The PBV (post-boost vehicle) of a ballistic missile, which makes it possible to "distribute" MiRVs and lures in different orbits, is technologically similar to a civilian rocket top that injects satellites into different orbits. It should be noted that the ability to release several satellites in space does not necessarily mean that the country has mastered the MiRVs technologies, it is a necessary but not sufficient condition.
One of the few images on a supposed Chinese PBV
Indeed, you can imagine a PBV that releases MiRVs like a remote controlled car to which you add a mechanism of distribution of the balls. The remote-controlled car can therefore drop a ball in one place, then roll freely to another place to drop another, and so on. This all depends of course on the autonomy of the remote-controlled car in question, its carrying capacity, as well as the precision and the range of your control handle.
While for some countries that manage to put several see dozens of satellites in orbit, sometimes it's just like a train that drops the same balls on well-defined rails. What I also tend to say is that it's a "rabbit that shits by going straight" ...
Officially nothing more can be said knowing that all the data of the nuclear vectors are highly confidential for any country. But we can still make some working hypotheses as a basis for exchange.
First, the Chinese rocket CZ-2C is, basically, a civilian variant "Batch 02" of the intercontinental ballistic missile DF-5. Therefore any improvements made to the CZ-2C in terms of performance - especially the carrying capacity - could be extrapolated to the new versions of DF-5.
It is estimated that the
DF-5B , the ICBM MiRVs China officially unveiled to the public during the military parade in September 2015, can carry about 5000 kg of payload, against 3100 kg for the version based DF-5 and extended reach version
DF-5A . The latter two have only one head of megaton class.
The maximum number of independent warheads carried by the DF-5B remains unknown to date and varies according to estimates, but a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 6 can be expected. Knowing that all DF-5 missiles have Same diameter, ie 3.35 meters at the widest, an increase in the number of conveyed warheads suggests, almost naturally, that the warheads have been further miniaturized.
And this miniaturization of the warheads would also imply a decrease in the power of the nuclear weapon and an improvement in its accuracy - the less powerful a head is, the more accurate it must be to be equivalent in terms of damage to nuclear weapons To a "large bomb", depending on the type of targets targeted.
The arrangement of warheads on their LVBs within an ICBM MX of the United States (Source: USAF)
Therefore, assuming that the carrying capacity of the DF-5C is always equivalent to that of the DF-5B, ie about 5,000 kg, it can then be estimated that the new Chinese nuclear warheads weigh in the 250 kg each, General that PBV and lures and other equipment occupy about 50% of the projectile mass.
Then, concerning the size of the new warheads of the DF-5C, we know that the DF-5 have a diameter of 3.35 meters, and once the thickness of the cap has been removed, we have fallen to 3 meters usable, A CZ-2C. If we now consider the DF-5C PBV has a size comparable to the upper floor
YZ-1 , the Chinese have developed for the launch of multiple satellites by rockets of 3.35 meters in diameter, then we can assume That the PBV has a diameter of 2.8 meters.
The calculations therefore give, for 10 MiRVs, a diameter of less than 0.885 meters for each of the heads (in fact much less to leave room for the arrangement).
In short, it can be assumed, very approximately, that each head is about 0.7 meters in diameter and weighs at least 250 kg. The power of each warhead is unknown, so we are not in a position to say whether the Chinese level of miniaturization of nuclear weapons is approaching or reaching the western level or that of the Russians.
It should also be noted that, the Americans are the first to officially reveal this reference DF-5C. No official Chinese official document has mentioned this model so far, but some rumors have actually talked about it since July 2016.
Finally, some US observers are already talking about a change in China's nuclear doctrine - recall that the country has limited nuclear deterrence strategy (sometimes called "minimum" by some), and
- this discourse is certainly alarming as always but still has a certain meaning, insofar as it can be considered, in a non-rigorous way, that the MiRVs missiles at the silos can rather be seen as a weapon of first strike, whereas the Missile "mobile", MiRV or not, rather as a means of retaliation. And with a range of more than 12,000 km, the "target" target can only be the United States, as 10,000 km will be enough to reach any point of Russia and Europe.
To be continued.
Henri K.
