China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Iron Man]

You you can't win an argument then you go on personal attack Yeah so much for the hubris !

I think we're done here.

 

[Hyperwarp]

Is there a consensus on what his DF-21 variant is? It is not the DF-21C or DF-21D. Shape of the cone wise, is it the MIRVed DF-21?

 

[Hyperwarp]

DF-16B - DF-16 with AMaRV:

 

[nugroho]

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Naval Weapons
Indonesian president watches failed firings of Chinese-made C-705 missiles at naval exercise
Ridzwan Rahmat, Singapore - IHS Jane's Navy International
16 September 2016

The Indonesian Navy's (Tentara Nasional Indonesia - Angkatan Laut, or TNI-AL's) attempt to successfully launch Chinese-made C-705 anti-ship missiles from two indigenously built attack craft during a major naval exercise has failed, sources from within the service informed IHS Jane's on 15 September.

The missiles, which were deployed onboard the KCR-40-class missile attack craft KRI Clurit (641) and KRI Kujang (642), each failed at different stages of their launches on 14 September.

Clurit and Kujang each fired a single C-705 missile during Exercise 'Armada Jaya' 2016 which was conducted in the Java Sea.

Both attempts were made in full view of Indonesian President Joko Widodo who was there to witness the exercise from onboard the landing platform dock ship KRI Banjarmasin (592). Accompanying him was TNI-AL chief Admiral Ade Supandi, and Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) chief General Gatot Nurmantyo.

According to TNI-AL sources, the first C-705 deployed on Clurit failed to launch upon command, but fired unexpectedly about five minutes later after the ship's crew failed to observe a misfire procedure.

The missile failed to hit its designated target for the exercise, the recently decommissioned Tisza-class auxiliary support ship, Karimata (960). The second C-705 missile, which was fired from Kujang , failed during mid-flight, and subsequently also failed to hit the same target.

Besides Clurit and Kujang , 'Armada Jaya' also involves the participation of about 7,000 TNI personnel and 39 naval vessels including a Cakra Type 209/1300-class diesel-electric submarine (SSK).

Other TNI-AL weapons that will be tested during the exercise, that runs until the end of September 2016, include the C-802 anti-ship missile that has also been acquired from China.




Is it because an export version ?

 

[nugroho]

Mod, please delete my post because it had been posted at
Chinese military exports to other countries by Pan Asian, once again , sorry

 

[Lethe]

The recent RAND publication

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makes for interesting reading, assessing the balance of power across various domains in the 1996, 2003, 2010 and 2017 timeframes. I found the nuclear analysis to be one of the most interesting components of the report. I recommend reading the whole chapter (with accompanying tables & graphs) but here are some excerpts from the conclusion:

Assuming a similar level of alert for each of the periods considered, our modeling suggests that the number of Chinese warheads that might survive a first strike has increased over time, from four in 1996 to six in 2003, 13 in 2010, and between 15 and 27 in 2017.

[....] The impact of the current balance of forces on crisis stability is uncertain. While China might fear losing its nuclear forces to the United States in a U.S. first strike, Beijing would also have little to gain—and much to lose—from striking first. Given the much improved but still relatively thin margin of China’s survivable second-strike capability, however, any attrition of the PLA’s nuclear capabilities during a conflict (especially attacks on one or more SSBNs, each one of which carries a dozen missiles) could provoke a nuclear “demonstration” firing to underline Beijing’s resolve not be disarmed.

[....] From a U.S. perspective, the model employed in this chapter suggests that increases in China’s nuclear arsenal within the range of our 2017 estimates (including the “high estimate” case) produce no significant reduction in U.S. second-strike survivability, largely because of the still-sizable number of U.S. silo-based ballistic missiles. In continuing to maintain considerable numbers of silo-based ICBMs, the United States preserves a significant hedge against a surprise attack by forcing a potential attacker to spend multiple warheads to destroy a single U.S. warhead.

[....] attempting to hold Chinese nuclear forces at risk of decapitation into the indefinite future would almost certainly be a poor idea for the United States, not least because it is likely a losing proposition. China will probably have more—and cheaper—options to improve the survivability of its second-strike capability than the United States would to threaten such survivability. Moreover, efforts to hold Chinese nuclear forces at risk would have profoundly negative consequences for arms race stability, as well as the larger political relationship with China.

 

[Blitzo]

The recent RAND publication

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makes for interesting reading, assessing the balance of power across various domains in the 1996, 2003, 2010 and 2017 timeframes. I found the nuclear analysis to be one of the most interesting components of the report. I recommend reading the whole chapter (with accompanying tables & graphs) but here are some excerpts from the conclusion:

Wasn't this released last year, or am I taking crazy pills?

 

[Lethe]

Yes but I hadn't seen it discussed anywhere, and Cold War-style nuclear exchange discussions seem pretty thin on the ground these days.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

From Henri K. Notam issued some kind of missile test Anyone know it
23&24 September

Analysis of NOTAM A2510 / 16 indicates that a dual test launch will take place on September 23 from 9:40 to 10:25 and from 10:40 to 11:35 Beijing time.

According to this message air sailors, the overflight of any altitude is prohibited on three segments of air. This suggests that the two tests are rather like ballistic.

A2510 / 16 NOTAMN
Q) ZWUQ / QARLC / IV / NBO / E / 000/999 /
A) ZWUQ B) 1609230140 C) 1609230335
D) 0140-0225 AND 0240-0335
E) SEGMENTS OF THE FLW ATS RTE CLSD:
1.Y1: SADAN-MAGOD
2.W187: SADAN-OBDEG
3.L888: SADAN-NOLEP

These three segments are closed air east of the Taklamakan desert, a usual place of Chinese ballistic test shots.
NOTAM A2510 / 16

NOTAM A2510 / 16

The orientation of these three yellow lines gives several possibilities regarding where ballistic missiles will be launched. Here are four possible scenarios -

Double test firing from Korla low probability
Double test firing from Korla low probability


Double test fired Liuqingkou, DF-21 unit
Double test fired Liuqingkou, DF-21 unit


1 100km ">Double test fired JSLC capacity> 1 100km
1 100km ">Double test fired JSLC capacity> 1 100km


2 100km ">Double test fired TSLC capacity> 2 100km
2 100km ">Double test fired TSLC capacity> 2 100km


Note that a day before, the forces of Chinese rockets have already conducted a ballistic test firing in the same region, and an anti-ballistic test would take place on September 20 also.

L’analyse du NOTAM A2510/16 indique qu’un double tir d’essai aura lieu le 23 Septembre de 09h40 à 10h25, puis de 10h40 à 11h35 heure de Pékin.

Selon ce message aux navigants aériens, le survol de toute altitude est interdit sur trois segments aériens. Ceci suggère que les deux essais sont plutôt de type balistique.

A2510/16 NOTAMN
Q) ZWUQ/QARLC/IV/NBO/E/000/999/
A) ZWUQ B) 1609230140 C) 1609230335
D) 0140-0225 AND 0240-0335
E) THE FLW SEGMENTS OF ATS RTE CLSD:
1.Y1: SADAN-MAGOD
2.W187: SADAN-OBDEG
3.L888: SADAN-NOLEP

Ces trois segments aériens fermés se trouvent à l’Est du désert du Taklamakan, un lieu habituel des tirs d’essai balistique chinois.

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NOTAM A2510/16

L’orientation de ces trois lignes jaunes donne plusieurs possibilités à ce qui concerne le lieu où les missiles balistiques seront lancés. Voici quatre des scénarios possibles –

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Double tir d’essai depuis Korla, probabilité faible

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Double tir d’essai depuis Liuqingkou, unité de DF-21

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Double tir d’essai depuis JSLC, portée > 1 100km

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Double tir d’essai depuis TSLC, portée > 2 100km

A noter qu’un jour auparavant,

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, et

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.

L’affaire à suivre.

Henri K.

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[Hendrik_2000]

(Cont)
A new NOTAM number A2523 / 16 suggests that the forces of Chinese rockets could lead to new ballistic test firing at September 24, 2016.

If this new test is confirmed, then it will be the fourth Chinese ballistic shot in 3 days. This rate of fire is not necessarily surprising, given that the PRC will celebrate his 67th birthday in a week, it is customary in China as military and industrial celebrate the event so. So we should have other types of manifestation of this kind until 1 October.

Contrary to the double shooting of September 23, the trial of 24 includes only a launch window, so a priori only a single missile is launched. The event will take place between 9:45 ET 10:30 local time.

A2523 / 16 NOTAMN
Q) ZWUQ / QARLC / IV / NBO / E / 000/999 /
A) ZWUQ B) 1609240145 C) 1609240230
E) SEGMENTS OF THE FLW ATS RTE CLSD:
1.W187: SADAN-OBDEG.
2.Y1: SADAN-MAGOD.
3.L888: SADAN-NOLEP.