China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[plawolf]

Just for fun, here's a hypothetical comparison between countries A and B, where country A is experiencing slowing growth and country B is experiencing accelerating growth:

View attachment 29283

As you can see, even at these hypothetically inflated values, country B is still lagging further behind country A.

That's because you are looking at absolute differences over too short a time span. Do A/B as well and you can see the percentage gap shrinking even as the absolute widen.

I did the original calculations at 11tn at 6.33% annual growth vs 2.5tn at 7.75%, fixed for both, and it worked out at 120 years for India to exceed China.

But if you do a percentage analysis, the closing of the gap should be apparent even in as short a timeframe as what you are looking at.

 

[AndrewS]

Personally, I use an average of 5-6% growth for China which looks reasonable and which means a doubling in some 12-14 years.

I reckon India could manage 7-9% over the next decade, but then there will be a slowdown for some years before it gets stuck in the middle-income trap for structural reasons (like the "Brazilian Miracle").

 

[Ultra]

By my definition, China could, and reality proved that she did.


Your example is flawed because growth rate is expressed as a percentage, not an absolute value. Not only that, your example incorrectly used unit of m/s for acceleration, whereas the correct unit should be m/s².

Suppose China is moving at 100 m/s. Growth of 6.8% on 100 m/s is an additional 6.8 m/s.
Suppose India is at 40 m/s. Supposing a growth of 10% translates to an additional 4 m/s.

As you see, India with higher percentage of growth sees less increase than China, even though China has lower percentage of growth. So the gap between the two countries is still widening.

A simpler example for you is this: a millionaire growing his wealth 1% per year makes more money than the average Joe growing $1000 at 10% per year. By the end of the year, the millionaire has an extra $1000. The average Joe only got an extra $100.


Don't worry about me, I am pretty certain I am better in Finance, Math and Physics than you after this reply of yours. You should be more worried about yourself.

GAWD, I am seriously worry about you or whoever you work for. Let's hope your engineering didn't kill anyone.

Your own example is flawed. Growth means it GROWS. With China's example - you add the 6.8 m/s back into 100 m/s, so, the next iteration is 106.8 m/s x 6.8% + 106.8 = 114.0624 m/s, then next iteration and so on and so forth. Now for the India's example, it is 40 m/s + the additional 4 m/s (10%) so in the first iteration it is 44 m/s. Then next iteration is 44 m/s x 10% + 44 m/s = 48.4 m/s. Now it doesn't look like much does it? It looks like the gap is widening isn't it?

YOU DUMB SHITS. ALL OF YOU who said the gap is widening and India is never going to catchup. LMAO!!

Let me make a little plot for you to demonstrate why the difference in acceleration makes all the difference over time.

 

[AndrewS]

If the current growth differential continues for long enough (as per your graph) then yes, India will catch up to China.

But based on the evidence so far, India looks more likely to follow Brazil's economic trajectory. We can see Brazil stuck in the middle income trap at its current wealth level of $15K per capita.

China is also at $15K per capita, but looks like it will follow the growth trajectory of the other East Asian Economic Tigers

I already covered the similarities between Brazil/India and China/East Asia in a previous post.

 

[Ultra]

Uh... Wolf is right. You guys are a little bit off on your math. If India locks in at 8% and China locks in at 6%, India would eventually catch up to China no matter how small it started out. Technically, an economy of $1 growing at 5% would eventually overtake an economy of $100000 growing at 4.99%; it would just take long enough for the species to die out first LOL. This principle is how China's economy could overtake America's economy even though China's GDP was minuscule compared to that of the US 30 years ago. America's economy didn't get smaller; it just got bigger at a slower rate. At first, even though China's economy was growing on the order of 15% annually, the absolute value added was still less than that of the US growing at 5% annually because America's economy was much more than triple the size of China's. But eventually, the compound effect of several larger percentages multiplied to each other (15% of 100, then 15% of 115, then, 15% of 172.5, etc...) caused the Chinese economy to get large enough for the absolute value of its 15% to be greater than the absolute value of America's 5%. That's when the absolute value gap started to shrink. Instead of thinking about slope, think about derivatives and you will see (think back to calculus).

If you have a graphing calculator, draw 100x1.15^30 vs 1000x1.05^30 and you will see the curves first pull apart with the larger economy taking off faster, then come together and pull apart again with the smaller one on top forever from there. 100(size of smaller economy)x1.15(15% growth)^30(over 30 years) is 6621 while 1000(size of larger economy by 10 fold)x1.05(5% growth)^30(over 30 years) is 4322.

The problem with predicting using this model is that rates are never locked in and certainly, you cannot predict how fast something will be growing 20 years.

No you can't predict how fast something will grow. That I agree, but every indication shows India is been given ALL the support by the WEST (mainly US and its allies) setting up to be the direct competitor for China. They give them deals, tell their industry to move out of China and move to India, giving Indians points how to emulate the Chinese (but not too closely mind you! Don't want them indians become another commie! Oh who am I kiddin' the WEST will call a black cat a white tiger if it suits them)..etc etc.

But you can predict how a maturing economy will slow down. China cannot and WILL NOT be able to continue to sustain its economic growth. Like every matured economies before it, eventually it will slow down like a sprinter that got tired and ran out of steam. China will slow down to 2% or less. And that's an optimistic projection. Some countries go to the negative end of the scale.

 

[Ultra]

So were you a product of western or eastern education? I ask because apparently you're not very strong on math and logic.

GDP growth rate is expressed in PERCENTAGES. Your acceleration analogy is using absolute values. Can you not see the absurdity of your comparison?

A more accurate analogy would be China driving at 100 km/h and India driving at 20 km/h. India accelerates at a rate of 8% per hour and China accelerates at a rate of 6% per hour.

After one hour, China would be driving at 106 km/h, while India is driving at 21.6 km/h. In absolute values, China accelerated by 6 km/h while India accelerated by 1.6 km/h.

Oh good lord. Please stop embrassing yourself.
And I would ask the same thing about you - were you a product of western or eastern education? I ask because apparently you're not very strong on math and logic.

... and I just happened to have a blend of BOTH eastern and western kind of education.

Sure, let's work out the figures:

Person A: 100,000 starting salary, 6% raise per year
Person B: 50,000 starting salary, 8% raise per year

View attachment 29282

As you can clearly see, the gap is between A and B is widening.

As for US vs China, it's not hard to grow 12 times faster when one of them is growing at 0% or has a negative growth rate.

In 2008 and 2009 especially, US growth was negative while China had 9% growth.

I am guessing you have the supposedly superior CHINESE education didn' you.
At iteration 20 is it looks like it is widening isn't it. LMAO. Is this what your superior chinese education is teaching you? Why don't you drag down the list and see for yourself.

If this is the current level of Chinese education, it is seriously worrying.

 

[AndrewS]

China's peer group are the other East Asian Economic Tigers, so we could use their development history as a guide.

Yes, their growth has slowed down to less than 2%, but not before they caught up to developed country wealth levels with 4%+ growth rates.

===

And I would disagree on the level of western support for India. The vast majority of Western companies are in India (and China) just for the money. And on that count, China is way more important to them than India.

We also see lots of countries in the world that have had a lot of western *support*, but that hasn't helped them very much either.

 

[Ultra]

If the current growth differential continues for long enough (as per your graph) then yes, India will catch up to China.

But based on the evidence so far, India looks more likely to follow Brazil's economic trajectory. We can see Brazil stuck in the middle income trap at its current wealth level of $15K per capita.

China is also at $15K per capita, but looks like it will follow the growth trajectory of the other East Asian Economic Tigers

I already covered the similarities between Brazil/India and China/East Asia in a previous post.

Andrew, I like your post, and I have read your previous post. To a certain extent I agree, there is potential for India to be trap in the middle income trap. But there is a big difference between India and Brazil.

Brazil is in American sphere of influence. In geopolitics, america will keep all of its southern neighbours as poor as it can, as a source of cheap and plentiful labour source.

Now India on the other hand is on the otherside of the ocean, and it is right besides its nearest near rival China. Like the China before it, America will try to give all its support to India so it can be a thorn to China's side just like China was to the Soviet.

 

[Ultra]

Personally, I use an average of 5-6% growth for China which looks reasonable and which means a doubling in some 12-14 years.

I reckon India could manage 7-9% over the next decade, but then there will be a slowdown for some years before it gets stuck in the middle-income trap for structural reasons (like the "Brazilian Miracle").

But did you factor in the slow down of Chinese economy though? China will not be able to sustain 5-6% growth for long.

 

[Hyperwarp]

Ummm...........

WTF happened to "China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread"?